Cardinals @ Texans Picks & Props

When talking about pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year. Bam Knight comes in as one of the worst possession receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, catching just 74.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 16th percentile. This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has allowed a paltry 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 2nd-best rate in the league. The Houston Texans defensive ends rank as the best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 68.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's unit has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in football.

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 68.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. Dalton Schultz's pass-catching performance been refined this year, notching 4.4 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 3.0 last year.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year. Trey McBride's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 79.2% to 75.2%. This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has yielded a feeble 71.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 10th-best rate in the league. The Houston Texans defensive ends rank as the best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 68.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. This week, Nico Collins is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 94th percentile among WRs with 8.9 targets.

This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Cardinals, who are massive -10-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 66.6% of their plays: the highest clip on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 135.0 offensive plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cardinals this year (a staggering 61.5 per game on average). Michael Wilson's 4.3 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a material growth in his receiving skills over last year's 2.9 figure.

Andre Baccellia has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 5 games.

Jayden Higgins has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jaylin Noel has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jalen Brooks has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 3 games.

Christian Kirk has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Emari Demercado has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Elijah Higgins has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.