Although the Arizona Cardinals have lost five games in a row, you can't blame that skid on quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who has balled out since replacing the injured Kyler Murray.
My NFL picks have been riding the hot hand with Brissett the last few weeks, and I'm betting on him again with a pass-heavy script expected against Houston.
Brissett and a trio of quarterbacks headline my best free NFL player props for Week 15.
NFL Week 15 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jacoby Brissett |
Over 37.5 passing attempts | -125 |
 Tyler Shough |
Under 21.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Trevor Lawrence |
Under 0.5 interceptions | -130 |
 Puka Nacua |
Longest reception Over 27.5 yards | -122 |
 Jack Bech |
Over 2.5 receptions | +114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 15
Prop pick: Jacoby Brissett Over 37.5 passing attempts
Jacoby Brissett has thrown the ball at least 40 times in five straight contests, and he's averaging a whopping 46.8 pass attempts per game over that span.
The Arizona Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have pretty much abandoned that part of their offense, with their passing play percentage sitting at an absurd 75% over the last four weeks.
They are 9.5-point road underdogs against the red-hot Houston Texans on Sunday, which makes it even more likely that they'll lean on their aerial attack after falling behind.
Prop pick: Tyler Shough Under 21.5 rushing yards
The New Orleans Saints have been getting some strong performances from rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. The second-round pivot scrambled for 55 yards on seven carries last week, but 34 of those yards came on a single run.
Shough had been held below 20 rushing yards in four of his previous five starts, and his previous career high was a 22-yard game against Atlanta. He also didn’t run much in college. On Sunday, Shough faces a Carolina Panthers defense that does a great job of containing QBs on the ground.
Carolina allows the fewest rushing yards per game (10.2) and the second-fewest yards per rush attempt (2.8) to opposing QBs. The Panthers are dead last in the league in pressure rate, so they rarely flush quarterbacks out of the pocket.
Prop pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 0.5 interceptions
The New York Jets defense doesn't have a single interception through 13 games — the longest run without a pick to start a season in NFL history. Their pass defense got even worse at the trade deadline after trading away top interior rusher Quinnen Williams and shutdown corner Sauce Gardner.
On Sunday, they head to the Sunshine State to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence. While his numbers don't jump off the page, Lawrence is getting more comfortable in Liam Coen's offense and has improved his efficiency over the course of the year.
Lawrence hasn't thrown a pick in his last two games, and he ranks fourth among all QBs in success rate since Jacksonville's bye in Week 8. With the Jags listed as 13-point home favorites on Sunday, he'll throw fewer passes and will be less likely to force the ball into tight coverage.
Prop pick: Puka Nacua longest reception Over 27.5 yards
Although Puka Nacua isn’t at the record-setting pace he showed earlier this season, the Los Angeles Rams have been using him more on deep routes. The superstar receiver has hauled in a reception of at least 30 yards in each of his last three games.
He should torch a Detroit Lions defense that has surrendered the second-most explosive pass plays (47) in the NFL. The Lions’ secondary will be even worse down the stretch, with both starting safeties and corner Terrion Arnold sidelined by injuries.
Prop pick: Jack Bech Over 2.5 receptions
The Las Vegas Raiders selected Jack Bech with the 58th pick in the draft after he earned second-team All-Big 12 honors at TCU. The rookie didn’t get many chances to contribute early in the season, but he logged a career-high 82% of the snaps last week, finishing with six receptions for 50 yards.
Four of those receptions came in the fourth quarter after Kenny Pickett replaced an injured Geno Smith. It was clear that Bech has a rapport with the veteran passer, and that should continue this week with Pickett named the starter.
We should also see a heavy passing script from the Raiders on Sunday, as they are 12.5-point underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles. Bech typically runs short routes, which are exactly the types of passes the Eagles are willing to concede.
NFL Week 15 prop betting card
- Brissett o37.5 passing attempts (-125)
- Shough u21.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Lawrence u0.5 interceptions (-130)
- Nacua longest reception o27.5 yards (-122)
- Bech o2.5 receptions (+114)
My NFL weekly props column is 36-29 this season for +3 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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