New England @ Buffalo Picks & Props

Buffalo's success in the run game has had Josh Allen throwing fewer passes, but that will change against a New England defense ranked second in yards allowed per carry. 

Combine that with the fact that this game should be fairly competitive, and I’ll be shocked if Allen doesn’t attempt at least 30 passes on the day. The total for this game is tied for the highest of the weekend, which means we should get plenty of possessions for the Bills

Allen threw 29 passes last year in Buffalo’s 24-21 win over the Patriots, and New England’s opponents are calling pass plays on nearly 60% of snaps this season. He attempted 46 passes against the Ravens, and I’ll take the reigning MVP to take over down the stretch and clear this total. 

TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 27 or more yards in three of his four games this season. The only exception was the win over Miami in which he had just three carries. But he's seen an uptick in touches over the past two games, along with an increased snap count.

The Bills are allowing six yards a carry, with only the Bears and Giants giving up a higher average. That’s probably why Buffalo opponents are also rushing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

Given the Bills are also coughing up explosive runs at a ridiculous rate, Henderson should have no trouble reaching his total and might even blow right past it. 

 

The Patriots are allowing the eighth-most receptions by tight ends at 5.75 per game, and only six teams are allowing more targets per game to the position. They’re also allowing the seventh-most yards to tight ends at 63 per contest. 

That is partially being driven by the New England pass rush. Josh Allen is likely going to need to check down a fair amount, and Dalton Kincaid will benefit.

I like Kincaid’s receiving yardage total of 31.5 yards, but I’ll go with his reception total at better odds as a strongly correlated play. 

 

The Bills have spread the ball around so far this year, but Kincaid has still managed to total 16 targets through four weeks. New England allowed both Panthers tight ends, Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans, to score last week, and Brock Bowers dominated them for 103 yards on five catches in Week 1. Take Kincaid to find paydirt at +240.

Diggs has yet to score this season, but he was targeted seven times and caught six of them for 101 yards last week against the Panthers. He had two of four of New England’s targets in the red zone last week, and you have to think he’ll be motivated against his former team. The Bills have allowed six passing touchdowns through four weeks, five of which have been to wide receivers. I’ll take this +250 price for Diggs to score in primetime.

It's a steal that you can still get the "No interception" prop for Allen at anywhere close to -150. He threw an interception last week but that's just the second time he has thrown a pick in the last 12 games. Allen threw just six interceptions in his MVP campaign last year and wasn't picked off a single time in three playoff games. He rarely throws the ball into tight coverage and with the Bills 8.5-point home favorites against the Patriots on Sunday he likely won't feel the need to attempt risky throws. The Pats haven't been great in coverage and are 30th in the league in passes defended.

“Everyone eats” in this Bills receiving corps and Joshua Palmer is fat with value in the touchdown market. Palmer is Buffalo’s best receiving option versus man coverage – something New England runs at a high rate – and is tied for the team high in WR red zone targets with four.

New England has had issues slowing foes through the air. It’s allowed the second most passing plays of 20 or more yards and rates among the worst teams in EPA allowed per dropback and opponent success rate per pass. Those metrics are poor despite a slate of so-so rival quarterbacks for the Pats, who have given up an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. Allen is massive step up for Mike Vrabel’s defense. Even with the Bills not needing No. 17 to carry the team in recent weeks, he’s still thrown for two or more touchdowns in three of the first four games. Week 5 forecasts are leaning toward another two-TD effort, with a few models on the other side of 2.0 touchdown passes.

Cook has been a monster for the Bills to start the season but offensive coordinator Joe Brady is worried about his workload. He told reporters he wants to get fellow RBs Ty Johnson and Ray Davis more work as to lighten the load on Cook, as he doesn't think this current pace is sustainable. Sunday night could be a prime spot to lessen Cook's load. Not only are the Patriots the best run stop unit Buffalo has faced but this big spread writes a game script with the Bills protecting a big lead in the second half. That sets up a run-heavy approach with Brady giving carries to his other RBs and protecting Cook from unnecessary punishment. Most projections for Cook range between 70 and 80 yards.

I’m hitting the button on the Buffalo Bills against the spread this week because I believe they should be closer to 10-point favorites. The market is showing plenty of love for the Patriots after their 42-13 win over the Panthers, but this is a different challenge — Buffalo on Sunday Night Football. The Bills also got encouraging injury news this week, as Matt Milano, Ed Oliver, and Spencer Brown were all limited in Wednesday’s practice and have a chance to suit up. Ultimately, I think the Bills’ defensive line can be the difference. With the home crowd behind them, they should hold a clear edge over New England’s offensive line and be able to put consistent pressure on Drake Maye.

The Bills failed to cover a huge 14.5-point spread last week but still won by double-digits for the third-straight game. This is a squad that consistently wins with margin against lower-level teams like the Patriots. The Pats are coming off a blowout win against the Panthers but were outgained in that contest with five fewer first downs and nine fewer minutes of possession. They've faced a weak schedule so far and are still 28th in defensive success rate. Meanwhile, their offense can't run the ball (32nd in rush EPA) which is Buffalo's only weakness. This is the kind of spot where the Bills tend to run up the score.

The Patriots may choose to go run-heavy against the Bills, as to not only control possession and limit Allen’s time with the football but also poke the soft spot of this Bills defense. Buffalo sits 28th in EPA allowed per handoff and 29th in run stop grading at PFF. That Bills defense could get back key cogs in Ed Oliver and Matt Milano on Sunday night, which would be a big boost to that run stop success. The passing defense is getting good pressure on rival QBs, producing a top 3 hurry and pressure rate per dropback. New England’s offensive line has allowed second-year QB Drake Maye to feel the third highest pressure rate through four weeks, giving up 13 sacks already. Maye’s PFF passer rating plummets from 83.2 when kept clean to 53.3 when pressured - 24th among all quarterbacks.

The Patriots are a huge 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The New England offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in the league against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (72.5% Adjusted Completion%).

The Patriots are a huge 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. After totaling 44.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has posted big gains this season, currently sitting at 53.0 per game.. Hunter Henry's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 98th percentile for TEs.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline.. Dalton Kincaid has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.8% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.. Dalton Kincaid has notched a staggering 39.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among tight ends.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year.

The Patriots are a huge 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The leading projections forecast Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the end zone in this game (11.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).. Rhamondre Stevenson has notched significantly more air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (-3.0 per game).

The Patriots are a huge 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.7% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The New England offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 5th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to the opposing side: a staggering 4.53 YAC.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year.. Josh Allen's passing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.7% to 71.1%.. Opposing QBs have passed for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (249.0 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.

The Patriots are a huge 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.7% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. This week, Hunter Henry is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 94th percentile among TEs with 6.2 targets.. After totaling 44.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has posted big gains this season, currently sitting at 53.0 per game.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 125.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Patriots have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.8 plays per game.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.0 per game) this year.. Stefon Diggs has been a less important option in his offense's pass attack this season (18.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (23.8%).. Stefon Diggs's 45.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 60.0 figure.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline.. In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 90th percentile among tight ends with 5.6 targets.. Dalton Kincaid has notched a staggering 39.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among tight ends.. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has been torched for a whopping 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 9th-most in the NFL.

The Patriots are a huge 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.7% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to accumulate 3.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among RBs.. Rhamondre Stevenson has notched significantly more air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (-3.0 per game).