New England @ Buffalo Picks & Props

I’m hitting the button on the Buffalo Bills against the spread this week because I believe they should be closer to 10-point favorites. The market is showing plenty of love for the Patriots after their 42-13 win over the Panthers, but this is a different challenge — Buffalo on Sunday Night Football. The Bills also got encouraging injury news this week, as Matt Milano, Ed Oliver, and Spencer Brown were all limited in Wednesday’s practice and have a chance to suit up. Ultimately, I think the Bills’ defensive line can be the difference. With the home crowd behind them, they should hold a clear edge over New England’s offensive line and be able to put consistent pressure on Drake Maye.

The Bills failed to cover a huge 14.5-point spread last week but still won by double-digits for the third-straight game. This is a squad that consistently wins with margin against lower-level teams like the Patriots. The Pats are coming off a blowout win against the Panthers but were outgained in that contest with five fewer first downs and nine fewer minutes of possession. They've faced a weak schedule so far and are still 28th in defensive success rate. Meanwhile, their offense can't run the ball (32nd in rush EPA) which is Buffalo's only weakness. This is the kind of spot where the Bills tend to run up the score.

The Patriots may choose to go run-heavy against the Bills, as to not only control possession and limit Allen’s time with the football but also poke the soft spot of this Bills defense. Buffalo sits 28th in EPA allowed per handoff and 29th in run stop grading at PFF. That Bills defense could get back key cogs in Ed Oliver and Matt Milano on Sunday night, which would be a big boost to that run stop success. The passing defense is getting good pressure on rival QBs, producing a top 3 hurry and pressure rate per dropback. New England’s offensive line has allowed second-year QB Drake Maye to feel the third highest pressure rate through four weeks, giving up 13 sacks already. Maye’s PFF passer rating plummets from 83.2 when kept clean to 53.3 when pressured - 24th among all quarterbacks.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. James Cook has run a route on 49.0% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.. In this game, James Cook is forecasted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.0 targets.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year.. James Cook's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 84.6% to 100.0%.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 83rd percentile among tight ends with 5.5 targets.. Dalton Kincaid has notched a staggering 39.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among tight ends.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year.. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has been torched for a whopping 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 9th-most in the NFL.

The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in football this year.. Khalil Shakir's 90.2% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a material boost in his pass-catching ability over last season's 80.5% rate.. Khalil Shakir's pass-game efficiency has improved this year, compiling 11.27 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 8.87 figure last year.. The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

The Patriots are a huge 8-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. This week, Hunter Henry is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 91st percentile among TEs with 6.2 targets.. After totaling 44.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has posted big gains this season, currently sitting at 53.0 per game.. Hunter Henry's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 98th percentile for TEs.

The Patriots are a huge 8-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to accumulate 2.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.. Rhamondre Stevenson has notched significantly more air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (-3.0 per game).. Rhamondre Stevenson's 17.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 12.8.

The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. This year, the imposing Patriots run defense has yielded a meager 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-fewest in football.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (155 per game) versus the Bills defense this year.. The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.