Josh Allen is the favorite to win his second consecutive NFL MVP Award, and one of the many things that he does at an elite level is take care of the ball.
My NFL picks are betting on the Bills quarterback to put together another efficient performance on Sunday night.
Here are my best free NFL player props for Week 5.
NFL Week 5 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Alvin Kamara |
Over 57.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Chase Brown |
Under 52.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Justin Herbert |
Over 268.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Cam Ward |
Over 176.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Josh Allen |
Under 0.5 interceptions | -152 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 5
Prop pick: Alvin Kamara Over 57.5 rushing yards
Alvin Kamara rushed for 70 yards on 15 carries last week against the Bills despite a negative game script. The five-time Pro Bowler also finished with 99 yards in a Week 2 loss to the 49ers.
Kamara should see a bigger workload than usual this week since the winless New Orleans Saints might actually play with a neutral or positive game script. The Saints are 2.5-point home favorites against a 1-3 New York Giants team that is starting a rookie QB and just lost its best player (WR Malik Nabers) to a season-ending injury.
The Giants are also dead-last in the NFL in defensive rush EPA and defensive rush success rate, while ranking 31st in yards allowed per carry (6.1).
Prop pick: Chase Brown Under 52.5 rushing yards
We bet the Under 53.5 rushing yards for Chase Brown last week due to a combination of his poor form, expected game script, and a matchup against a tough Denver defense. We got ourselves a winner as Brown finished with 40 yards on 10 carries.
His rushing yards total is nearly identical this week at 52.5, despite the Cincinnati Bengals coming in as bigger underdogs against the Detroit Lions, who are even better at defending the run. The Lions enter Week 5 sitting fourth in the league in defensive rush EPA and seventh in yards allowed per carry (3.8).
Brown has been held below 50 rushing yards in every game this year while totaling just 133 yards on 57 carries. He's second-last in the league in rushing yards over expected (-53), and that, combined with the Bengals' piss-poor run blocking, will lead to another ugly game on the ground.
Prop pick: Justin Herbert Over 268.5 passing yards
After shutting down Russell Wilson and an inept Giants passing attack in Week 1, the Washington Commanders have been getting torched through the air. They've allowed more than 280 passing yards in each of the last three weeks and now sit 28th in the league in defensive dropback EPA.
That's bad news as they head to California on Sunday to face Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Herbert will look to bounce back from his worst performance of the season, and the fast surface at SoFi Stadium should help.
Herbert has been attacking downfield (seventh in the NFL in average intended air yards) and spreading the ball around. He completed 25-of-34 passes for 318 yards against the Chiefs in Week 1 before throwing for 300 yards versus the Broncos in Week 3.
If he could shred those strong secondaries, he should have no problems against a Commanders squad that ranks dead-last in the league in coverage grade per PFF.
Prop pick: Cam Ward Over 176.5 passing yards
It's been a rough debut season for Cam Ward, but he has gone against a slew of strong pass defenses. In fact, every opponent the Tennessee Titans have faced so far boasts a Top-10 mark in defensive dropback EPA.
The worst defense he has played so far has been the Colts, and he threw for 219 yards against them in Week 3. This week, the first pick overall gets to take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are 28th in defensive dropback success rate and passing yards allowed per game (255.5).
Ward's numbers have been ugly so far, but his arm talent, poise under pressure, and command of the offense have shown improvement every week. Expect his numbers to also start trending upwards.
Prop pick: Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions
It's a steal that you can still get the "No interception" prop for Josh Allen at anywhere close to -150, especially in a game against the New England Patriots, where the Buffalo Bills could get up big early and lean on the run.
Allen threw an interception last week, but that's just the second time he has thrown a pick in the last 12 games. The Bills franchise QB threw just six interceptions in his MVP campaign last year and wasn't picked off a single time in three playoff games.
The reigning MVP rarely throws the ball into tight coverage, and with the Bills 8.5-point home favorites against the Pats on Sunday, he likely won't feel the need to attempt risky throws.
New England has struggled to make plays in coverage and ranks 30th in the league in passes defended.
NFL Week 5 prop betting card
- Kamara Over 57.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Brown Under 52.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Herbert Over 268.5 passing yards (-114)
- Ward Over 176.5 passing yards (-114)
- Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (-152)
My NFL weekly props column went 4-1 last week for +2.86 units.
Season: 9-6 for +2.3 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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