Best NFL Picks Today

Jaguars -4.5 was my first trade of the week, and I’m comfortable laying the wood all the way to -7.5 because the talent mismatch in this matchup is going to be on full display Sunday. After all, Jacksonville is better on both sides of the ball by both EPA per play and DVOA, and the Jags are the better coached team with the better quarterback and fewer injury concerns.

Cleveland comes in with something this club hasn’t felt in a long, long time: momentum. The Browns are on a three-game streak and playing on extra rest after winning last Thursday. Cleveland ranks Top 10 in EPA allowed per play during this stretch, with the pass rush coming to life. The Browns have 12 sacks and have seen a surge in pressure rate without leaning into the blitz, getting work out of Jared Verse and the front four. That’s bad news for New York QB Geno Smith, who’s been great when kept clean (No. 9 at PFF) but has his rating drop to 20th under pressure.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Joe Burrow has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (304.0) this season than he did last season (196.0).. With a terrific 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.. With a stellar 7.74 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow rates among the most efficient QBs in the NFL.

The Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.

I got T.J. Hockenson at 4.3x and have the fair price at 3.5x. He was 2.6x last week against the Dolphins. I know the Vikings aren't scoring these days, but a date with the Saints, who allow the most points per game at 32, should help. New Orleans has a ton of injuries at linebacker, and that was on full display Monday night as the Falcons put up 45 points and averaged 7.5 yards per play. Hockenson tied for the most targets at the tight end position last week with 13, and he's the only Vikings non-RB to receive red-zone targets over the last two weeks. Justin Jefferson is aiming to play Sunday, but that's not guaranteed. Maybe Kyler Murray has found his new Trey McBride. If Jefferson is out or limited, Hockenson could be the No. 1 option in the passing game against a defense that ranks 28th in EPA per dropback and 30th in success rate against the pass.

Woody Marks is the better running back in an offense that is back in business with the return of Nico Collins. He played 42% of the snaps last week and had six carries and a score — his second in as many games. Since Week 2, he has more red-zone carries than David Montgomery, who has three RZ carries for a whopping zero yards. Marks also has two targets to Montgomery’s zero inside the 20. The Titans are a top-10 matchup for rushing TDs and have a 66% opponent red-zone scoring rate, while the Texans could be running heavily as 7.5-point road favorites. Marks is a buy for me to 40%.

I got this at 3.56x and would play it to 3.15x, with a fair price of 3x. Isaiah Likely has a massive 32% target share. He had 12 targets last week and hauled in a team-high seven receptions. Jameis Winston is looking a lot better than he did in Week 1, and the second-most targeted tight end in football is a TD threat in Week 5 against a Commanders defense that is giving up 30.5 points per game. It’s not just volume; it’s volume near the goal line, too. No tight end has more red-zone receptions than Likely, who leads an offense that is struggling to run inside the 20 with just one rushing TD in the red zone. This offense is being undervalued in this matchup, and Likely is the best target at 32% or better.

I got this at 4.3x and would play it to 4x. The Steelers are passing the ball at an above-average rate and used 2-TE sets at a season-high 42% last week. Darnell Washington has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has 94 yards and a score over that stretch. He also had two red-zone targets in Week 4 and saw just as many targets as Pat Freiermuth. Washington is a human refrigerator who faces a Colts defense coming back from London and ranks as a Top-10 matchup for tight ends. Indy is also allowing 392 total yards per game (31st) and 26 points per game (22nd). The Pittsburgh tight end is a great mid-range TD target at this price for a Week 5 card.

Ben Johnson's offense supports two running backs. We've seen it in Detroit, and we're seeing it in Chicago. Because of Monangai's output last week, Swift's price is at an all-time bargain and something worth buying to even money. Swift still has 19 red-zone carries to Monangai's 14, so it's not like Swift is simply the between-the-20s back. There's a reason he's the highest-rated TD on the Covers Anytime TD Value Index this week. It's a cupcake matchup for both backs. The Packers are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and the second-most rushing TDs to the position. I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson wanted to run the score up against his division rivals, whom he eliminated in the Wild Card last year. Watch the injury reports. I'll play Swift to 50% with Monangai in, and if either back sits, I'll play the healthy one to 55% and likely sprinkle on Roschon Johnson.

This is an incredible price on Kalshi when you consider the rest of the market is closer to 4x rather than his 4.7x price. The Broncos are missing key bodies in the secondary, as Patrick Surtain is doubtful and fellow starting corner Riley Moss is questionable. Helping Harris get those looks against second-string defenders is the health of his receivers. Ladd McConkey can't seem to get healthy, and Quentin Johnston is also questionable. The only players seemingly healthy on this Chargers offense are Justin Herbert and Harris, who had five targets last week, an 83% route share, and 60 receiving yards. Harris also leads all Chargers WRs in red-zone targets. This is one of my favorite TD prices this weekend.

Even the Cardinals can score against the Lions, who are allowing 31.8 points per game and have given up the sixth-most rushing TDs to opposing running backs. Tyler Allgeier had 10 opportunities last week, turning them into 49 yards and a score. Both Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love are getting looks in the red zone, with the backup accounting for eight of their 21 red-zone opportunities this year. However, Love's health is the most important factor this week. The rookie running back hurt his ankle in Week 4, but it wasn't the same ankle he injured in the preseason that kept him from taking any warm-up snaps. Love is expected to be limited in practice this week but should be good to play. Still, if he's limited, Allgeier could poach more red-zone opportunities against the softest defense in football. I got this at 3.4x early in the week and would play it to 3.2x.

Rashid Shaheed scored last week at 3.6x, and even with an adjustment to a fair price of 3.8x, the 4.5x price I got is great value. His TD last week came on a rushing attempt after he lined up in the backfield, which could be something we see more of going forward with this rushing offense now without Jadarian Price. Zach Charbonnet will not play this week, so there's still time to hop on the burner, who has plenty of outs to score, whether it's as a low-volume pass catcher, on special teams or now out of the backfield as a rusher. The 49ers will be down three starters on defense, including two in the secondary, which only helps Shaheed's chances of finding the end zone.

In his two games back from injury, Penix only has eyes for WR Drake London. He’s been targeted 16 times the past two outings. However, London is yet to see a red zone throw his way and is still hunting for his first touchdown of the season. Baltimore has been burned by some big-name WRs, allowing guys like CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Chris Olave to ball out. London’s Week 5 projections are positive, including his touchdown forecasts. Most of those models call for a 50%+ chance of Atlanta’s WR1 finally finding the end zone.

There is meat on the bone for a Dalton Kincaid TD that opened at 3.2x, and I have a fair price of 2.8x. Kincaid has been ignored too much over the last two weeks as the Bills have moved away from their heavy-TE usage and used play-action at a lower rate. Let's hope a Week 4 loss to New England pushes Joe Brady back toward the 13-personnel usage we saw in Weeks 1 and 2, when Kincaid had 225 receiving yards and a score. It's a great buy-low spot on the tight end after he has just three receptions over the last two weeks. Buffalo has played bad football over the last two games, and getting Kincaid the ball has to be a priority in what could be an indoor shootout.