New York @ Jacksonville props

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan. The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets this year (only 56.1 per game on average). The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. Davante Adams's 27.3% Target% this season signifies a noteworthy decline in his pass game usage over last season's 35.2% figure.

The Jaguars will be starting backup quarterback Mac Jones in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. Right now, the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars. The projections expect Evan Engram to garner 7.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Evan Engram has been a big part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football. Tyler Conklin has been less involved as a potential target this season (81.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (67.7%). In this game, Tyler Conklin is expected by the projections to position himself in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs with 3.8 targets. The Jets offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.6% pass rate. The projections expect the Jaguars to call the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.4 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 7th-fewest in football. Brenton Strange profiles as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among tight ends, completing a measly 70.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 14th percentile.

The Jaguars will be starting backup quarterback Mac Jones in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. The Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all air attack stats across the board.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football. In this game, Jeremy Ruckert is predicted by the predictive model to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 3.9 targets. While Jeremy Ruckert has received 4.6% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of New York's passing attack in this contest at 11.5%. The Jets offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football. In this week's game, Breece Hall is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.8 targets. The Jets offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board. This year, the shaky Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered a whopping 86.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 9th-largest rate in the league.

Garrett Wilson has gone over 5.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Allen Lazard has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Parker Washington has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Devin Duvernay has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Travis Etienne has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Tim Jones has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Braelon Allen has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.