Cincinnati @ Arizona props

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The model projects Zach Ertz to total 6.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends. Zach Ertz has been among the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 4.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projections forecast the Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. Irv Smith Jr. has run a route on 59.1% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs. The leading projections forecast Irv Smith Jr. to notch 5.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs. Irv Smith Jr. has been among the leading pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 3.0 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

The Arizona Cardinals will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized). The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 56.1% pass rate. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the model to call just 60.6 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL. James Conner has gone out for fewer passes this season (46.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (61.5%).

The leading projections forecast the Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 99.4% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs. In this game, Ja'Marr Chase is forecasted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 99th percentile among wide receivers with 11.8 targets. With a terrific 7.2 adjusted catches per game (96th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase rates among the leading pass-catching WRs in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. In this week's game, Joe Mixon is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.4 targets. This year, the shaky Cardinals pass defense has given up a staggering 89.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-highest rate in the league. The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 10th-worst safety corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. With an impressive 95.5% Route Participation% (97th percentile) this year, Marquise Brown places among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. With an exceptional 5.3 adjusted receptions per game (84th percentile) this year, Marquise Brown rates among the top pass-catching WRs in football.

Trenton Irwin has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Michael Wilson has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Boyd has gone over 4.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Rondale Moore has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.