Atlanta @ Jacksonville props

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The leading projections forecast the Falcons to run the 9th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football. Bijan Robinson has played on 72.5% of his team's snaps this year, ranking in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs. The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to notch 6.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script. Calvin Ridley has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, hauling in just 50.6% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 13th percentile among wide receivers The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script. The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game. The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (55.4%) vs. tight ends this year (55.4%).

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.60 seconds per play. Evan Engram has run a route on 83.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among tight ends. Our trusted projections expect Evan Engram to earn 6.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs. The Jaguars O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board. Evan Engram has been among the best pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

Tyler Allgeier has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Christian Kirk has gone over 4.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Mack Hollins has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.