Alabama @ Georgia Picks & Props

Alabama’s run defense hasn’t been great, allowing nearly three line yards per attempt with a stuff rate of just 17% on the year. The Tide also rank 66th in EPA/rush.

The Dawgs rank 23rd in rushing success rate, with the line generating 3.3 yards per attempt. And while nate Frazier is getting more carries, the split isn’t big enough for me to ignore the fact that Chauncey Bowens has a rushing total more than 20 yards less than his teammate.

Bowens has rushed for 32+ yards in all three games, and Florida State had three different backs go for at least 28 yards against Alabama. I expect Georgia to rely on the ground game and Bowens should go over his rushing total if he again gets double-digit carries, as I expect he will. 

Tennessee wideout Chris Brazzell II torched Georgia for 177 yards and three touchdowns on six catches, and Ryan Williams is hoping to post a big game against that secondary as well. He went for 165 and two touchdowns on just five catches against Wisconsin, and his game-breaking speed will be problematic. Georgia's not getting pressure on the quarterback and is allowing nearly eight yards a dropback, so this is a great spot to buy low on Williams and his yardage total. 

Isaiah Horton has settled into his role with the Alabama offense quite well, and has touchdowns in consecutive games. He's a 6-foot-4 matchup nightmare, facing a Georgia secondary that got destroyed by Chris Brazzell II. 

At a price of +310 to score anytime, this is a no-brainer value play. He caught a touchdown in the redzone against Wisconsin, and he showed time and again last season at Miami that he is lethal on fade routes near the goal line. 

It felt like Kalen DeBoer made a concerted effort to get his star wideout the ball last week vs. Wisconsin. Williams caught five balls for 165 yards and two touchdowns. And we just saw Tennessee's Joey Aguliar throw it all over the yard against this Georgia defense, with his top two receivers going for 177 and 97 yards repectively. Williams can eclipse this number on one catch.

Alabama has shown weakness on the ground, ranking 95th in EPA per rush and 94th in tackling (per PFF). The defensive line has failed to get much push (107th in line yards, 109th in stuff rate), so there should be lanes for Frazier to exploit before forcing would-be tacklers to miss. 

Alabama forces opponents to the ground, and Gunner Stockton is not enough of a confidence boost for Georgia to try otherwise. As soon as an underdog can force an offense to be one-dimensional, there is value in the moneyline. Add in how efficient the Tide are where it matters most and this thought holds more and more logic.