Illinois vs UCLA Picks & Props
ILL vs UCLA Picks
NCAAF PicksCross-country games are never easy in the Big Ten, and with UCLA's defense, I like the Bruins to cover up to -11.5. UCLA leads the country in net EPA per play on defense and ranks No. 2 in defensive success rate (33.7%). Illinois' defense is on the polar opposite end, ranking 131st in defensive success rate (49.5%). UCLA backup QB Ty Dieffenbach will make enough plays to keep the Bruins perfect against the spread.
UCLA's offense has stalled (86th in success rate, 133rd in explosiveness since Week 6), so I'm on Illinois at +8.5 or better. The Bruins rank dead last in rushing explosiveness, and 116th in EPA per rush, since Ty Dieffenbach took the reins as the starting quarterback, as he isn't the rushing threat at the position that this offense needs.
Neither team will push the tempo, resulting in a leisurely pace and offenses reliant on sustained drives. The Bruins rank 125th in seconds per snap (29.2), preferring to slowly drain the life out of opponents, and the Illini aren't far ahead at 90th (27.4).
With the weather, Illinois' cross-country travel on a short week, and UCLA's defensive-first philosophy, this contest will get off to a low-scoring start. The Bruins are 1-5 O/U against the first half total in their last six home games.
The Bruins haven't reached 5.7 yards per play or better in four of their last five games. A lack of offensive firepower and a suddenly listless rushing attack will show through.
ILL vs UCLA Consensus Picks
45% picking Illinois
Total Picks ILL 176, UCLA 219
ILL vs UCLA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
ILL
K. Houser
(QB)
u215.5 Passing Yards
203.05 UNDER
PROJECTION
-12.4
DIFFERENCE
20.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
UCLA
T. Dieffenbach
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
200.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ILL
A. Laughery
(RB)
o46.5 Rushing Yards
57.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.6
DIFFERENCE
25.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
T. Dieffenbach
(QB)
u19.5 Rushing Yards
17.62 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
20.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
u85.5 Rushing Yards
81.16 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.3
DIFFERENCE
19.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
A. Woods
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
49.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-1.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
K. Feagin
(TE)
o8.5 Receiving Yards
16.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.1
DIFFERENCE
25.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
o12.5 Receiving Yards
19.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.1
DIFFERENCE
25.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ILL
C. Dixon
(WR)
o81.5 Receiving Yards
96.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.1
DIFFERENCE
25.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ILL
C. Abney
(TE)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
11.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
25.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
B. Rowe Jr.
(WR)
o21.5 Receiving Yards
26.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ILL
A. Laughery
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
13.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
20.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
A. Mizell
(WR)
u35.5 Receiving Yards
31.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.4
DIFFERENCE
19.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ILL
B. Trimble
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
21.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.2
DIFFERENCE
17.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o47.5 Receiving Yards
51.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
15.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ILL
H. Clement
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
52.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.1
DIFFERENCE
12.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions
2.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
16.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ILL
B. Trimble
(WR)
u2.5 Receptions
1.83 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
14.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
A. Mizell
(WR)
u2.5 Receptions
1.93 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
10.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ILL
C. Dixon
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions
7.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
K. Feagin
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions
1.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
7.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
3.92 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
1.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
B. Rowe Jr.
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
1.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-1.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ILL
C. Abney
(TE)
o0.5 Receptions
1.10 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ILL
A. Laughery
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions
1.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-5.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ILL
H. Clement
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-10.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
ILL
K. Houser
(QB)
u19.5 Completions
18.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
11.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
UCLA
T. Dieffenbach
(QB)
o15.5 Completions
16.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
6.22%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 7-0 in Fighting Illini last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bruins are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Bruins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bruins are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Bruins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Bruins are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Bruins are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bruins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
ROI Trends
ILL vs UCLA Top User Picks
'BammBamm64' is picking Illinois to cover (+10.5)
BammBamm64 is #1 on picking games that Illinois are in with a record of (6-0-0) and +6000 units on the season.
'Paintedface' is picking UCLA to cover (-10.5)
Paintedface is #10 on picking games that Illinois are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +3750 units on the season.
'MOEMONIE' is picking Illinois to cover (+10.5)
MOEMONIE is #2 on picking games that Illinois are in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5850 units on the season.
'Eldominicano33' is picking Illinois to cover (+10.5)
Eldominicano33 is #2 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'nextclique' is picking UCLA to cover (-9.5)
nextclique is #3 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'Alfiekutya' is picking Illinois to cover (+9.5)
Alfiekutya is #3 on picking games that Illinois are in with a record of (5-3-0) and +4850 units on the season.
'puntpat' is picking UCLA to cover (-10.5)
puntpat is #4 on picking games that Illinois are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'ptrixie' is picking UCLA to cover (-9.5)
ptrixie is #4 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'mrmrsbears' is picking UCLA to cover (-9.5)
mrmrsbears is #5 on picking games that Illinois are in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.
'djgarcia' is picking Illinois to cover (+10.5)
djgarcia is #5 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4500 units on the season.
'h2otwnjinny' is picking UCLA to cover (-9.5)
h2otwnjinny is #6 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4500 units on the season.
'kingjames5' is picking UCLA to cover (-10.5)
kingjames5 is #7 on picking games that Illinois are in with a record of (5-3-0) and +4350 units on the season.
'vikings53098' is picking UCLA to cover (-9.5)
vikings53098 is #7 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4500 units on the season.
'Makanikeoe' is picking Illinois to cover (+10.5)
Makanikeoe is #8 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4500 units on the season.
'billdo' is picking UCLA to cover (-10.5)
billdo is #9 on picking games that Illinois are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.