BYU vs Utah Picks & Props
BYU vs UTAH Picks
NCAAF PicksBYU's erratic play since upsetting No. 2 Notre Dame has me leaning heavily on Utah in this game. The Utes rank seventh in offensive SP+ and can control the game at home with a rushing attack that ranks fifth in the country in yards per carry (5.4) and a time-of-possession percentage that ranks seventh. It's too tall a task for Bear Bachmeier. Lay the points.
If LJ Martin is out for BYU in the Holy War, I like Utah up to -6.5, but if he's playing, I only like the Utes to cover up to -4.5. Without Martin, BYU puts too much on Bear Bachmeier's shoulders, and that won't fly against a Utah defense ranked 19th in success rate (39.4%). Utah's run-heavy, misdirection offense will also provide plenty of problems for a Cougars defense ranked 74th in rush success rate (45%).
I would take the Over up to 50.5 in the Holy War. Utah's offense ranks 10th in the country in available yards percentage (59.3%) and seventh in success rate (50.4%). The Cougars have hit the Over in three straight games and have scored 27+ in all but two games this season.
Utah has scored 31+ points in six of eight games this season, and I'd play the Over on the Utes team total in the Holy War up to 28.5. With a run game that's ranked 19th in EPA per rush, Devon Dampier and Co. will take advantage of a BYU defense ranked 73rd in rush success rate (45%).
Even if LJ Martin plays in the Holy War, Utah is the far more well-rounded team. The Utes have one of the best run games in the country, and the Cougars' defense is just 73rd in rush success rate (45%). If Utah builds a lead, Bear Bachmeier will have trouble throwing BYU back into the game against one of the better secondaries in college football.
BYU vs UTAH Consensus Picks
BYU vs UTAH Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
BYU
B. Bachmeier
(QB)
u215.5 Passing Yards
201.20 UNDER
PROJECTION
-14.3
DIFFERENCE
23.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Dampier
(QB)
o213.5 Passing Yards
223.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.7
DIFFERENCE
20.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UTAH
D. Bray
(RB)
o19.5 Rushing Yards
24.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.1
DIFFERENCE
21.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Dampier
(QB)
u46.5 Rushing Yards
43.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.5
DIFFERENCE
20.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UTAH
W. Parker
(RB)
u74.5 Rushing Yards
73.89 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
19.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
BYU
B. Bachmeier
(QB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
33.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UTAH
N. Bennee
(TE)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
35.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.5
DIFFERENCE
26.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UTAH
B. Pegan
(WR)
o57.5 Receiving Yards
68.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.8
DIFFERENCE
24.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UTAH
W. Parker
(RB)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
24.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.6
DIFFERENCE
23.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BYU
J. Phillips
(WR)
o18.5 Receiving Yards
24.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.3
DIFFERENCE
23.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UTAH
R. Johnson
(WR)
o20.5 Receiving Yards
25.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.1
DIFFERENCE
23.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BYU
W. Lyons
(TE)
o32.5 Receiving Yards
37.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
23.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BYU
K. Kasper
(WR)
u54.5 Receiving Yards
52.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.2
DIFFERENCE
22.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UTAH
C. Whittemore
(WR)
o33.5 Receiving Yards
39.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.5
DIFFERENCE
22.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BYU
L. Glasker
(WR)
u64.5 Receiving Yards
61.51 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.0
DIFFERENCE
-17.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UTAH
B. Pegan
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
9.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UTAH
C. Whittemore
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
7.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UTAH
N. Bennee
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions
2.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
3.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BYU
W. Lyons
(TE)
u3.5 Receptions
3.27 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-2.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UTAH
R. Johnson
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
1.87 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UTAH
W. Parker
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions
2.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-9.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
D. Dampier
(QB)
o11.5 Carries
12.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
13.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
UTAH
W. Parker
(RB)
o14.5 Carries
15.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
UTAH
D. Bray
(RB)
o4.5 Carries
5.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-2.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
D. Dampier
(QB)
o17.5 Completions
18.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
14.72%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Utes are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Utes last 4 games following a ATS win.
Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.