Oklahoma @ Texas Picks & Props

No defense limits quarterback-designed runs better than Oklahoma does, costing opponents 0.798 expected points per intentional quarterback rush. That reality alone should doom this prop, not to mention Arch Manning's broader struggles.

Against the best defensive line Oklahoma has faced this season, Mateer rushed for two touchdowns. His 19 carries and 74 yards against Michigan were impressive, but those two scores are what are deservedly most remembered. If Mateer's passing is at all impacted by his injured throwing hand, then the Sooners will have only so many places to turn. They lack a truly reliable running back. They have Mateer.

Mateer has rushed for at least one touchdown in his every game this season, and this is the only safe bet to make regarding Mateer without knowing more about his hand injury. If Mateer is at all worried about some passes, then his running the ball where it matters most will make only more sense.

Oklahoma's defense will be the best Arch Manning and the Longhorns have faced this season. And nothing I've seen from the quarterback with the famous last name makes me think the Sooners should be concerned.

John Mateer or no John Mateer, Oklahoma should win this game. The Texas defense made DJ Lagway look good last week, and will be consistently defending short fields after the offense turns it over or has to punt.

Texas ranks 100th or worse in EPA/dropback, third down success, and third down distance. The Longhorns won't put together enough sustained drives to get the win, and I won't be surprised if the Sooners are favored come kickoff—no matter their quarterback. 

Things have gone from bad to worse for Arch Manning. He hasn't looked great all season, but he was absolutely overwhelmed by Florida last week. The Gators' defensive line pressured him all game, forcing him into multiple turnovers and a 55% completion percentage. Oklahoma's defense is arguably better than Florida's. The Sooners lead the nation in success rate and are second in EPA per play. They are going to have Manning running for his life. Which to his credit, he isn't bad at. He rushed for 37 yards vs. Florida and I see something similar here.