There were plenty of monumental upsets in college football last week, and Saturday brings us plenty of chances to see more moneyline underdogs finding a way to come out on top.
Headlined by Nico Iamaleava and the UCLA Bruins, here are my three favorite plus-money college football picks for the Week 7 slate!
CFB Week 7 upset picks
Oklahoma ML (
Arizona ML (
UCLA ML (Oklahoma moneyline
This is another tight matchup that I could see swinging in favor of Oklahoma before kickoff. While the news of John Mateer possibly playing has impacted the odds, I’m not sure the Sooners even need him to win.
You saw Texas last week, right? Heck, you’ve seen Texas against any team with a pulse this season.
Have you seen anything from Arch Manning and the Longhorn offense that makes you think they’ll put up points against this Oklahoma defense?
An Oklahoma defense, mind you, that ranks top five nationally in (takes deep breath) EPA/pass, available yards allowed, early down EPA, third-down success rate, and average third-down distance. Meanwhile, the Sooners' defense sits first in overall success rate.
The Longhorns rank 100th or worse in EPA/dropback, third-down success, and third-down distance. They also enter the weekend 106th in dropback success rate and have a rushing success rate in the 60s.
Texas has a good defense, but that same defense just made DJ Lagway look like a solid quarterback. That defense will be defending short fields as Oklahoma forces turnovers and punts against a Texas offense that is 81st in available yards gained.
Mateer or no Mateer, give me the Sooners to remain undefeated.
Arizona moneyline
When you look at the metrics at a glance, it’s easy to think BYU should win this one. After all, the Cougars' defense is fairly strong, and their offense is top 30 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback.
Then again, all the offense in the world doesn’t matter if it doesn’t result in points, and BYU ranks 85th in points per quality drive at just over a field goal per.
Furthermore, the Cougars aren't an offense that puts up many big pass plays, coming into the weekend in the bottom 25 in dropback explosive rate. BYU will find it hard to run on Arizona’s defense, which thrives on creating havoc and limiting big plays.
The Wildcats are 18th in EPA/rush and boast a 25% stuff rate against the run, limiting opponents to just 2.2 line yards per rush. They also rank top five in early down success rate and late down success rate, and only one team has a better success rate against the pass.
Arizona’s defense will be the best BYU has faced this season, and I expect this game to be a close one. BYU’s four FBS opponents this season have a combined nine wins, and the struggles the offense had against Colorado showed the Cougars are vulnerable.
I’ll take the Wildcats to get the win at home.
UCLA moneyline
I’m sorry, but I don’t know how we live in a world where Michigan State is favored by more than a touchdown against UCLA.
A lot of people are looking at UCLA’s win over Penn State last week as just a new-coach bump, a fluke, or a situation where the Nittany Lions were going across country after a tough game against Oregon.
While that latter part is true, it doesn’t give the Bruins enough credit. Nor does it give new offensive coordinator Jerry Neuheisel the credit he deserves.
Tired or not, Penn State got 42 points hung on one of the best defenses in the country. Nico Iamaleava threw for 166 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 128 yards and three more scores.
Now he gets to face a bad Michigan State defense that ranks 100th or worse in EPA/pass, available yards allowed, early play EPA, and late down success. And the Spartans are allowing one of the best passing success rates of any team in a Power 4 conference.
The one area where Sparty’s defense does decently is against the run, but the Bruins are top 15 in EPA/rush. They gained 5.4 yards a pop last week, and USC tore the Spartans up to the tune of 289 yards and three touchdowns on 40 carries.
UCLA’s defense isn’t that good, but neither is Michigan State’s offense. Aiden Chiles was abysmal last week against Nebraska, completing just nine of 23 attempts for less than 100 yards while throwing two picks.
The Spartans rank 88th or worse in success rate both throwing and passing, and 97th in quality drive rate. Their only win over a Power 4 school came in a double-overtime game against Boston College, prevailing by two points against a program that sits at 1-4.
Odds of +265 are far too good to pass up, and I’ll back UCLA to keep riding high and get another upset.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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