Las Vegas @ Phoenix Picks & Props

Satou Sabally has grabbed 6+ boards in seven of her past nine contests, and there’s going to be urgency for the Mercury to control the paint in such a high-stakes spot. Sabally logged 5.9 RPG during the regular season, but that number sits at 7.2 RPG in the 2025 playoffs. As long as she can avoid the foul trouble that plagued her in Game 1, I see the German international nailing this Over and easing the rebounding burden on some of the Mercury veterans.

Game 2 swung in Las Vegas’ favor during a sequence where Wilson just decided to take over the contest, and her stat line of 28 points and 14 rebounds in 32 minutes tells its own story. The Las Vegas Aces will need the MVP to stay hot on the road if they’re going to slam the door on a Phoenix Mercury comeback, and that signals another do-it-all effort fromA'ja  Wilson, who’s gone past this combo prop Over in three of her last four contests.

Jackie Young is a proven postseason performer, and she’s finished with at least 18 points in seven of her 10 outings in these playoffs, so I’ll gladly jump on the Over again for Game 3 when the prop line sits at 16.5.

The 10 points and nine field-goal attempts in Game 2 represented Alyssa Thomas' lowest mark of the 2025 postseason in both categories, and she failed to get to the charity stripe for just the second time in the playoffs. The veteran has averaged 17.2 points per game in the playoffs, including 19.5 at home and 15.4 on the road. During the regular season, she averaged 16.3 at home compared to 15.2 on the road. In 48 total games this season, she's finished with 15+ points 26 times, including 14 of 23 home contests.