NBA Picks

We backed this Tyler Herro prop against the Charlotte Hornets just a couple of games ago, and he cleared it comfortably with nine assists. There’s a strong case to go right back to it in the rematch, especially at the current price, as many of the same conditions still apply. This is a meaningful game for the Southeast Division standings, and Miami comes in well-rested with two days off and another off day tomorrow. That setup should allow the starters to play full minutes, putting Herro firmly in the 30+ minute range. The production also isn’t fluky. Herro is averaging over nine potential assists per game across his last five, which stands out when his line is sitting at 4.5 at plus money. From a matchup standpoint, he should be able to manipulate Moussa Diabate in pick-and-roll coverage and create easy potential assists, particularly with Kel’el Ware as a lob threat. I price the Over at -145, making this a spot worth attacking again.

Charlotte has just three losses in its last 11, and are holding teams to 105.1 points per game, which is third in the NBA over that time.

The matchup against the Pistons is a hard one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the 2nd-least three attempts per game in the league this year (3.0).. The Detroit Pistons have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should lead to fewer plays for the Washington Wizards.. The Wizards rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

The Detroit Pistons have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should lead to fewer plays for the Washington Wizards.. The Wizards rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

The Orlando Magic are on the second night of a back-to-back, but I’m still backing them at +9.5, as I make this line closer to Thunder -7. Jalen Suggs is the key to this matchup. He’s one of the top point-of-attack defenders in the league and has the ability to make life difficult for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, potentially forcing him into a less efficient performance. A major strength of Oklahoma City’s offense is getting into the paint, collapsing the defense, and kicking out to shooters. Orlando is better equipped than most teams to handle that style. Their length and positional size allow them to stay home on shooters without overcommitting to drives. With their defensive personnel, size, and the benefit of home court, the Magic have the tools to keep this game competitive and stay within the 9.5-point spread.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Orlando Magic grade out 3rdworst in in the league when playing at home with just 9.0 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

This one could get out of hand early given the spread, but the value is on the total. The Pacers are a brutal offensive matchup against the Knicks’ No. 5-ranked defense and shouldn’t generate much scoring. New York could also be without Jalen Brunson, and with the Pacers, Nets, and Wizards coming up, the Knicks have every reason to limit his minutes or sit him entirely. Take away their top-scoring option, and this total starts to look inflated. The Under is firmly in play.

In regard to three-point attempts, the 6th-most aggressive team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Indiana Pacers.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the league over the last 10 games as the road team.

This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 1.5 3-pointers per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Suns, marking this as a challenging matchup.. The Timberwolves are expected to see a decline in plays in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Phoenix Suns).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, but the Minnesota Timberwolves grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

The Timberwolves are expected to see a decline in plays in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Phoenix Suns).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, but the Minnesota Timberwolves grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.. The matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns may be a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 1.6 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the NBA).

The matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a hard one for 3-point attempts; the other team's starting SFs have averaged the 3rd-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (3.9).. The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 6th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Bucks.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the league with a mere 8.7 offensive rebounds per game this year.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jamal Murray had a brutal showing against the Los Angeles Lakers, finishing with just five points on 1-of-14 shooting. In eight games prior, he averaged 29.9 points and scored 25+ six times. He's scored 25+ in 30 of 63 games this season and is due for a bounceback.

Over the last 10 games, the Philadelphia 76ers have surrendered 15.5 triples on 36.6% shooting and rank 22nd in defensive rating (116.4). Murray is knocking down a career-best 3.1 triples at a 42.4% clip, and he should be able to find his rhythm beyond the arc.

In regard to shooting, the Philadelphia 76ers's remarkable 115.5 points per game on the road rates 10th-highest in the NBA over the last 20 games.. The 9th-quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers.. The Philadelphia 76ers will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from squaring off against the 5th-fastest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Denver Nuggets).

De’Aaron Fox is trading at +115 for the Over 19.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -150. If there are concerns about a potential blowout, they’re already baked into the projection—this projection assumes Fox plays under 30 minutes. On the second night of a back-to-back, if the Spurs choose to limit anyone, it’s more likely to be Victor Wembanyama, which could shift even more offensive responsibility onto Fox. There’s also a strong narrative element with Fox facing his former team in Sacramento, but this isn’t just narrative-driven—it shows up in the data. Fox consistently plays with increased aggression in this matchup, with his usage rate jumping by over 7% against the Kings. All signs point to Fox taking on a heavy scoring role, making this price too good to pass up.

 

The Sacramento Kings have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.