NBA Picks

LeBron’s willingness to be a No.3 option has unlocked the Lakers, and he’s still putting up strong numbers in that role, including 6.9 RPG and 7.0 APG in March. I’m targeting those statistical categories tonight against the Thunder, and James has cashed this Over in five of his last seven contests.

He can still control possessions with his passing, and he’s dished 8+ dimes in four of his past five outings. Coming off 34.4 MPG in March, LeBron has his bounce back, and he finished with 10 assists and six rebounds against OKC in February.

For all its success, Los Angeles continues to get bullied on the blocks. The Lakers allow more than 53 points in the paint per game during this hot streak and a smaller rotation and ineffective interior defenders allow those foes to fire at a 69.5% clip within five feet of the rim. Hartenstein has had success versus the Lakers this season, putting up 10 and 11 points on a collective 9-for-15 shooting while logging 20 and 22 minutes in those two meetings. His projections for Thursday range between 8.8 and 9.0 points through 23 minutes of work.

Despite some inconsistent performances lately, Mitchell has topped this number eight times in 12 games this month and now gets a great matchup against a banged-up Warriors team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating and is giving up the seventh most points to opposing guards since the All-Star break.

With Steph Curry still out, Brandon Podziemski is a threat to hit all his Overs tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I’m pairing his scoring and rebounding for this prop pick. Podziemski has breezed past this combo number in four of his last five outings – in fact, he’s nailed it on points alone in three of those games.

Podziemski continues to be a sneaky-good rebounder too, and he’s hauled in 6+ rebounds in six of his past eight games. The Warriors are probably locked into the No.10 seed at this stage, but look for Podz to make the most of the extra reps.

Portland has quietly emerged as the league’s top defensive unit in recent weeks, allowing just 104.5 points per game over its last 10 while ranking first in defensive rating. The Blazers have held 11 of their last 14 opponents under 112.5 points. Meanwhile, the foot has come off the gas for the Pelicans as they've lost five straight and have nothing to play for. With a layoff until Monday after this game and a chance to climb the standings, Portland should bring a strong defensive effort here.

The Trail Blazers have it going right now. They went into L.A. and dumped the Clippers, 114-104, making it seven wins in their last nine outings. The Blazers are doing it with defense. Over this stretch, they own the NBA’s best scoring defense at 104 points per game, allowing teams to shoot just 44% from the field and 32.3% from 3-point range. New Orleans fits into what Portland is doing, as they have dropped five straight and are scoring just 107.6 points per game during this slide.

Over his last 16 games, the French phenom has averaged 27.7 points, 12.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists, good for 43.5 PRA. He’s gone for 40+ nine times in that span.

After serving up consecutive 41-point clinics, Victor Wembanyama is coming for the rest of the NBA, and he might just be hitting the next level in time for the playoffs. Wemby averaged 26.8 PPG in March, and he’s nailed this Over in nine of his last 14 outings.

I like tonight’s matchup against a Los Angeles Clippers squad that’s thin in the frontcourt. We’ll likely see L.A. put wings on Wemby here, and he should feast in the paint and on the offensive glass. He may not add to his 40-point run, but I’ll grab the Over on this reasonable O/U line.