NBA Picks

Cade Cunningham is averaging 10.0 dimes per contest, which ranks second in the league. The guard is on a tear in March. He’s averaging 11.8 assists this month, and Cunningham has cashed the Over in back-to-back contests. During that span, he’s dished out a whopping 28 dimes.

The Pistons have been the 4th-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied 4.3 shots made from the field per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Memphis Grizzlies, labeling this as a difficult matchup.. The Pistons have played at the 8th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Pacers are 0-11 ATS over their last 11 games with eight double-digit losses in that span. Recent form strongly favors New York, with the Knicks ranking fourth in net rating over the last 10 games while Indiana sits dead last. The scheduling spot is rough for the Pacers too—this is their third game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. New York is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when favored by double-digits.

The matchup vs. the Knicks is a difficult one for three-point attempts; the opposition's starting PGs have tallied the 2nd-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.8).. The Pacers are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from facing the 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 25 games (the New York Knicks).. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 1stworst in in the league with just 8.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

While Scottie Barnes is dealing with an illness and Brandon Ingram has had some tired outings this month, Barrett is soaring with 23.4 PPG on 60% shooting in March. He’s scored 20+ points in five of his last six games.

Devin Booker is trading at +115 for the Over 5.5 assists against the Toronto Raptors, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -160. Toronto tends to defend star players with aggressive traps and early doubles, forcing the ball out of their hands. That approach can actually benefit Booker, who is surrounded by capable catch-and-shoot teammates. When the Raptors overhelp, it should create plenty of opportunities for Booker to generate potential assists. Booker is also coming off a 43-point performance against the Pacers on Thursday, which should make Toronto even more focused on limiting his scoring. The Raptors are known for their aggressive and sometimes chaotic rotations, which can leave gaps in the defense. If they overcommit to Booker, the dunker spot could easily be left open, creating high-value assist opportunities—especially for someone like Oso Ighodaro.

Dallas has gone Under in eight straight games, with each staying below this mark of 237, while Cleveland continues to play at one of the slowest paces in the league. The Mavericks are also struggling offensively, ranking last in offensive rating during that eight-game stretch while barely topping 100 points per game. On the second night of a back-to-back after a long road trip, Dallas has every incentive to slow things down.

James Harden is fresh off his first 30-point game in nearly two months. He's scored 20+ points in five of his last seven outings. The Mavericks have just three wins in their last 21 games while allowing 120.2 ppg over that span – the fifth-worst mark in the NBA.

The Rockets own a 22-8 home record, and they beat the Pelicans in H-Town by nine points in January. In fact, they’ve covered tonight’s spread in five of their last six meetings with New Orleans.

Also, Houston’s last two wins comfortably covered this spread, and the Pelicans are an atrocious 9-24 on the road. I expect the Rockets to grab a convincing victory.

This is a rogue number at FanDuel that significantly boosts the expected value of the wager. Murray is trading at +116 there, while several other books have him at minus money, and my projection makes the Over closer to -225. That creates a massive edge, and it doesn’t require Murray to play an outrageous number of minutes. He’s averaging 12.5 potential assists over his last five games, which is a huge number relative to a line of 5.5. Those potential assists have also come in somewhat limited playing time, as Murray has logged several games under 30 minutes during that stretch. From a matchup perspective, Murray should be able to put Alperen Sengun into pick-and-roll actions all night. Sengun has struggled defensively in those situations, which gives Murray opportunities to manipulate the coverage and create easy looks—whether it’s lobs to Yves Missi or pocket passes to Zion Williamson.

The recent form of these teams doesn’t justify such a large spread, with them ranking 24th and 25th in net rating over the last 10 games. Utah has been competitive in the underdog role as well, going 7-3 ATS as a double-digit dog in its last 10 in that spot. Even when the Jazz lose, they tend to keep things relatively close, owning the sixth-lowest average margin of defeat in the NBA since the start of February at just 9.7 points. 

Even without a few key pieces, the Jazz continue to push the pace, score efficiently, and play little to no defense. Dropping 117 on the Knicks — a Top-6 defensive team — is impressive, and Utah shouldn’t have much trouble finding points against Portland’s 18th-ranked defense. On the other end, the Blazers should generate plenty of offense as well against the Jazz’s league-worst defense.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are listed as 5.5-point favorites against the Golden State Warriors, and that’s a number I’m comfortable backing as I make the line closer to 8. The key factor in this matchup is Minnesota’s size advantage, which becomes even more significant with Stephen Curry out of the lineup. When Curry plays, the Warriors can go small and use his gravity to pull Rudy Gobert away from the paint. Without that threat, Gobert can stay near the rim, allowing Minnesota to fully control the interior without being punished for playing big. That creates a difficult matchup for Golden State. Draymond Green simply doesn’t have the size to consistently deal with a frontcourt that includes Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid, especially with Anthony Edwards applying constant pressure at the rim. 

Anthony Edwards has taken his scoring to the next level, and his offensive prowess will be on full display tonight. Ant-Man is averaging 27.2 points per game at home and 31.8 on the road. He's scored 30+ in 31 of 56 games, including 19 of 27 away games.

Edwards dropped 32 in his first meeting with the Golden State Warriors, and he should have no problem getting 30 again. The Warriors lack size and physicality to throw at Edwards, and with Moses Moody out and De’Anthony Melton banged up, he could find some breathing room on the perimeter.

The Bulls, who traded Ayo Dosunmu, Coby White, Kevin Huerter, and Nikola Vucevic, are 3-3 since snapping an 11-game skid, and have covered just two of the last five as double-digit dogs.

This year when they are the visiting team, the other team's starting PFs have totaled 0.9 three-pointers per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the LA Clippers, making this a hard matchup.. The Chicago Bulls check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).