NBA Picks

In the month, Phoenix has been six points better per 100 possessions than Orlando has been, enjoying the No. 11 net rating in the NBA at +5.7. Both offensive and defensively, the Suns have been better than the Magic.

I like a bounce-back spot for Banchero with the team returning home to face the Phoenix Suns. Before that blip north of the border, he was on a tear. Banchero had posted efforts of 30, 36, and 39 points in the three game prior and is averaging more than 25 points this month. Sunday’s shooting slump has knocked his points prop down a few pegs. His scoring prop was as high as 25.5 O/U during that hot streak and player projections sit between 23 and 25 points, with the majority above 24. He scored 26 points in an OT loss at Pheonix back in February.

Charlotte’s average win this month has come by 21.4 points, while the Nets have been getting blown out regularly. This is a strong bounce-back spot after losses to the Sixers and Celtics, and the Hornets don’t typically play down to competition, nor can they afford to after dropping to 10th in the East. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six as a double-digit favorite, while Brooklyn ranks 26th in net rating over the last 10 games. This sets up for another comfortable Hornets win.

The 4th-slowest tempo team in the NBA this year has been the Nets.. The Charlotte Hornets have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Nets.. The Brooklyn Nets have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Scottie Barnes has blown past this combo O/U number in each of his last four contests, and I see him repeating the trick against a Detroit Pistons team on the second night of a back-to-back set. He’ll be a factor on the glass, too, where he’s averaging 7.7 RPG this year, and that’ll be especially vital if Jalen Duren returns for the Pistons here after missing yesterday’s game in OKC. 

The Toronto Raptors small forward has stepped up as a primary ball handler with the lineup missing key cogs in Immanuel Quickley and Brandon Ingram. He’s dished out 10, 12, 12 and 15 dimes over his last four outings, with 16.8 potential assists per game in that span. Helping those helpers has been a slate of foes immune to playmaking and Toronto shooting a blistering 53% from the field in those outings. The Pistons’ drum-tight No. 2 defensive rating doesn’t let opponents pass gas let alone the basketball. Projections remain grounded while the prop market isn’t. His assist total is up to 7.5 O/U but models barely breach six dimes, sitting as short as 5.3 assists. The Under is a juicy play but worth it considering the contrast in forecasts and foe.

Rebounding is the one area Alperen Sengun should contribute no matter anything else, no matter the opposing defensive game plan, no matter if his shot has abandoned him for a night. Yet he has fallen short of this modest prop in two of his last three games and in seven of 13 games in March despite the Houston Rockets’ overall surge on the glass.

Towns has shot the ball just 17 total times in the Knicks last two losses, hitting 10 of those attempts and finishing with outputs of 13 and 15 points. NBA analysts are calling for KAT to play a bigger role and demand touches in the Knicks’ offense, especially with the playoffs closing in. His point totals are shrinking like they jumped in a cold swimming pool, down from 20.5 to 17.5 O/U. That presents a buyback spot at Houston tonight. Towns already torched the Rockets for 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting back in February and his player projections all sit well above this 17.5-point mark, ranging from 19.4 to as high as 23.4. 

The Purple and Gold are left black and blue by bruising interior attacks like Cleveland, which ranks Top 4 in touches in the key. The Lakers have allowed 53 points in the paint per game this month and didn’t have an answer for Allen in their most recent run-in with the Cavs. He finished 8 for 11 for 17 points in 24 minutes in a 129-99 blowout of L.A. back in late January. All of Allen’s field goals attempts came inside the paint and all but two were directly at the rim. A rested Allen is expected to see an uptick in minutes and his player projections at sit north of 12.8 points with a ceiling flirting with 15 points. 

Both teams are on the back end of a back-to-back, but Luka Doncic will return to the lineup after serving his one-game suspension. A rested Luka is worth more than a bucket, so let's back the Lakers to pick up the win at home. 

Over the last 10 games, the Trail Blazers rank first in defensive rating and second in points allowed at 105.5, holding 12 of their last 14 opponents under 116.5. The Clippers’ recent offensive success has come against weak defenses like the Pacers, Bucks, and Mavs, and they rank 26th in shot attempts over the last 10 games. With Portland locking in defensively and L.A. playing slow, this points to an under on the Clippers’ team total.

This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have compiled 12.1 points per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Trail Blazers, branding this as a hard matchup for offensive efficiency.. The Clippers have played at the 3rd-slowest tempo in the NBA this year.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark further chances for scoring and assists, but the Clippers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with the home court advantage with just 8.0 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.. This year when they are at home, opposing starting SFs have attempted 1.9 foul shots per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Trail Blazers, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.