NBA Picks

Jalen Suggs is the Magic’s most consistent 3-point threat and has gone 3 for 10 from distance in each of the first two playoff contests. Nineteen of his total 20 shots from downtown have been either “open” or “wide open” with Suggs making good on just five of those attempts. Suggs’ shooting sees a surge at home, with his 3-point success jumping from less than 30% on the road to 37.4% in Orlando.

Game 3 projections aren’t bullish on Suggs’ shooting, pegging him for two 3-point makes. But with Detroit keeping its heels below the arc and Suggs shooting almost double his usual 3PAs, the opportunity is there to hit at least three treys – especially when you consider his shooting splits at home and a game script that has Orlando playing from behind.

Holmgren has fired away from three-point range in this series, hitting twice from beyond the arc in Game 1 and three times in Game 2. That continues a late season trend in which the former Gonzaga standout shot 56.3% from deep during April and hit 3+ three-pointers in two of his final three regular season contests. I'm expecting more of the same from Holmgren tonight.

Atlanta has played excellent defense throughout the series, punctuated by forcing Jalen Brunson into a turnover at the end of Game 3. But that hasn’t prevented Brunson from being productive, and New York is far too productive offensively to not break out, as it ranked second in offensive efficiency in the NBA this year. I'm expecting Brunson to step up for the Knicks tonight and hit his scoring total.

Nikola Jokic hasn’t been quite as effective in the last two games of the series, with Rudy Gobert doing a fairly good job of locking down the center. But the Denver Nuggets star has still averaged 25.5 points and 15 rebounds over the past two games, and it’s hard to imagine Jokic won’t come up with a response – perhaps even moving the ball around more if he can’t be as efficient as he’d like to be in his scoring. At even money, I like Jokic to get back to his all-around excellence by recording a triple-double tonight.

Barnes was everywhere in Game 3, with 33 points, 11 assists and relentless defense to slow down Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, and he’s gone past this points prop O/U number in all three contests so far.

Though Barnes is most comfortable as a playmaker, the Toronto game plan has shoved him into a bigger scoring role. He’s averaging 26.7 PPG in the series on 54% shooting, and I expect Darko Rajakovic to squeeze another 40-minute shift out of the Raptors’ main man.

Through the first three games of the series, Smart has averaged 28.6 points+assists while logging 36 minutes per game. His usage has increased from 15.1 in the regular season to 23.5 in the postseason. He finished with 23 points+assists in Game 1 and followed it up with 32 and 31 in Games 2 and 3, respectively.

Houston’s defense has been poor and undisciplined in the postseason. The Rockets have surrendered the third-most free-throw attempts (28.7), third-most assists (26) and highest three-point percentage (46.1). Houston’s 110.3 defensive rating ranks 10th, and the team has allowed the eighth-most points (106.7).

Smart has averaged 8.3 assists and knocked down 8-of-16 triples through the first three games of the series, and the matchup with Houston sets him up favorably to have another successful performance as a scorer and facilitator.