NBA Picks

Barrett finished with only two assists in that last meeting with Miami, marking just the third time in the past nine games Barrett hasn’t dished out four or more assists. He registered seven potential assists versus Miami last time out and averaged 6.6 potential dimes over the previous nine outings. The Heat have nosedived down the defensive rankings in recent months and have allowed 28.6 assists per game since the All-Star break (22nd). Projections for Barrett all sit north of the 3.5 O/U, with the majority of models at four dimes with a ceiling flirting with five. 

The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 5 games on the road.. This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 3.1 three attempts per game (fewest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors, identifying this as a hard matchup.. The Miami Heat are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 9th-most sluggish tempo team in the league this year (the Toronto Raptors).

This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 23.9% on three-pointers (worst in the league) against the Bulls, resulting in a challenging matchup.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, but the Washington Wizards rank 3rdworst in in the league with just 9.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

The Bulls have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Brown has cleared this prop in eight of his last 10 games, both exceptions coming by merely the hook. That kind of production should be immune to New York’s slowed pace, particularly since Boston works at nearly as slow a tempo by default.

Mikal Bridges has been excellent against the rival Celtics this season, putting up efforts of 12, 14, and 35 points in three meetings. Boston could opt to sit as many as four starters in the first of back-to-back games tonight. Bridges is averaging more than 14 points per game over his last eight outings while shooting 50% from the field in that span. Bridges projections all sit north of 13 points with a ceiling of 14.5. That could be even bigger if Boston rolls out a makeshift lineup and lies down for the Knicks.

Kobe Brown has tallied 13.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 8.2 more than he's tallied over the course of the year.. The Indiana Pacers have been the 7th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing away from home in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 6th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.. This year when they are on the road, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (10th-most in the NBA) against the Nets, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

The Indiana Pacers will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from facing the 5th-slowest tempo offense in the league this year (the Nets).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

The Rockets are rolling at the right time with the playoffs looming, and a win tonight could vault them past the Lakers in the standings. The Sixers are getting healthier, but they’ve still dropped back-to-back games by double digits vs watered-down version of the Spurs and Pistons. This is a very fraudulent Sixers team, as they've gone just 2-8-1 ATS as underdogs since March 1st. 

Amen Thompson is priced at +102 for over 5.5 assists, and that’s a number worth attacking—I make it closer to -155 for him to clear. There’s a lot to like about this matchup against the 76ers. Whether it’s Tyrese Maxey as his primary defender—who lacks the size to disrupt Thompson’s passing lanes and vision—or Thompson’s ability to push the pace in transition against an older roster featuring Paul George and Joel Embiid, this sets up well for him to generate easy potential assists. The bottom line is that Thompson’s athleticism is a major problem for this 76ers team. If he gets downhill and forces Embiid into drop coverage, he should consistently create high-quality assist opportunities for his teammates, especially Alperen Şengün.

Let’s face it—Draymond Green brings a different level of offensive energy when he’s facing his friend LeBron James. With the Warriors missing several key offensive pieces on Thursday, Green could definitely be in triple-double territory in this matchup. He should be heavily involved in initiating the offense, especially if the Warriors want to pull Deandre Ayton away from the rim and weaken the Lakers’ interior defense. With Ayton on the perimeter, players like Luke Kennard won’t provide much resistance at the rim on cuts created by Green’s passing. Green is averaging 14.2 potential assists over his last five games, and this matchup against the Lakers is another spot where we could see a high volume of opportunities. The over 6.5 assists is priced at -110, but I make it closer to -170, which suggests there’s solid value to exploit here.

When it comes to scoring, the Lakers's outstanding 118.1 points per game ranks 9th-highest in the NBA over the last 20 games.. The matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors is a strong one for three-point shots; the other team's starting SFs have compiled the highest 3-point rate in the league this year (47.0%).. Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 3.8 foul shots per game (8th-most in the NBA) vs. the Golden State Warriors, finding it easy to get to the charity stripe.