NBA Picks

Kawhi Leonard has already fallen short of this prop in six of his last seven games. Fewer minutes or intentionally less aggression tonight should assure that becomes seven of eight to close the season.

The Golden State Warriors check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).. This year, opposing starting PFs have attempted 4.1 foul shots per game (9th-most in the league) against the Clippers, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.

With Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic both sidelined, Luke Kennard has joined the first unit, logging 31 minutes per game across four straight starts. In that span, he’s averaged 27.6 PRA and recorded his first career triple-double.

Over his last four, Kennard has posted PRA totals of 23, 24, 21 and 42 respectively, clearing the Over only once but coming close in each contest. LeBron James is questionable tonight, and with James at less than 100%, Kennard could operate as the team’s leading facilitator and a go-to scoring option.

Kennard gets the perfect storm of an excellent matchup, pace-up spot and potential high usage in front of the home crowd. My money’s on a big game.

When it comes to offense, the Lakers's exceptional 50.2% field goal rate places highest in the NBA this year.. This year, opposing starting SGs have tallied 6.0 3-point attempts per game (8th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Jazz, marking this as a positive matchup.. The Lakers are expected to get a boost in plays today from sharing the court with the quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games (the Jazz).

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

There are ways of envisioning the Timberwolves putting up some numbers tonight. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are not opposed to losing. They have a slight hope of tying the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks for the sixth-worst record in the league. In fact, Dallas is favored by 6.5 points tonight against the Chicago Bulls, the one inter-conference game on the slate.

The 8th-most up-tempo tempo home team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Minnesota Timberwolves.. The Timberwolves will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).. The Timberwolves check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Portland is just 3-4 against the spread at home as a double-digit favorite this season. Those three covers came against Washington, Brooklyn, and Milwaukee, and the Kings have been quietly covering all month.

The Trail Blazers are below .500 ATS when asked to lay big numbers on their own floor, and that's why we’re taking the points and Sacramento.

The 6th-fastest pace home team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Portland Trail Blazers.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers grade out best in in the league with 13.9 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

The Thunder ruled 10 players out for Friday’s game, and the same 10 will be sitting tonight. That includes full-time starters Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Hartenstein, as well as most of the rotation players on the bench.

The group sitting this weekend combined for 310 of OKC’s 400 starts through the first 80 games. The only starter to play Friday was Luguentz Dort, who played 20 minutes. The other seven players to see the floor combined for 23 starts this season.  

Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, and the Suns grade out 3rd-best in the NBA when playing away from home with 13.5 offensive rebounds per game this year.. The matchup against Oklahoma may be a good one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SFs have attempted a monstrous 4.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Oklahoma City Thunder have the home court advantage (7th-most in the NBA).

These teams have served up three thrillers already this season, including an overtime classic earlier this month, but the lengthy injury reports suggest today’s matchup will have less star power. In that scenario, I have more faith in San Antonio’s depth, with Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant among those poised for bigger roles if Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, both questionable, don’t play.

The Spurs are 22-16-1 ATS at home this year, and they’ve lost just once at Frost Bank Center since January 25. That’s enough for me to lay the large spread with the relentless Spurs, who are 9-1 SU in their last 10 contests, and 32-7 SU at home this year. 

The Denver Nuggets have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).