NBA Picks

The 2nd-speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Wizards.. The Washington Wizards are expected to see a rise in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA this year (the Heat).. The Washington Wizards have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. Washington is a strong one for field goal attempts; when the Washington Wizards are playing at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 7th-most FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (14.6).. The Heat have played at the quickest tempo in the league this year.. The Heat are expected to get a boost in plays today from facing the 2nd-fastest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Wizards).. The Heat check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).. Over the last 5 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 6.0 free throws per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Washington Wizards, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

In a typical matchup, Ausar Thompson shadowing LaMelo Ball would be a major obstacle for Ball to clear his points total—but Friday’s game is anything but typical. With only two games left in the regular season, the Pistons have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. It wouldn’t be surprising if they limit their starters to around 20 minutes and prioritize rest. That’s a key factor for Ball. The Hornets still need this win for playoff positioning, so his minutes should be secure. It also means he likely won’t face Thompson’s point-of-attack defense for the entire game and could see 10+ minutes without him on the floor. The over 22.5 points is priced at -105, but I make it closer to -160, which gives us a solid edge.

The matchup vs. Charlotte is a good one for scoring; when the Hornets are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have totaled the most buckets per game in the league this year (8.7).. The Detroit Pistons check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

The Cavaliers are sitting both Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen tonight, and it's unclear exactly how much some of their other top players will see the court either. Atlanta is highly motivated, playing well, and the Hawks have all their talent on the floor for a game they want to win badly. I'm taking Atlanta to cover.

I came up empty on this exact prop on Wednesday when the Cleveland Cavaliers faced the Atlanta Hawks, but I’m going back to it because many of the same matchup advantages still apply—plus there are added benefits on Friday. For starters, this line was 8.5 at plus money on Wednesday. Now it’s dropped to 7.5 and is still priced at plus money. That’s a full assist lower, despite a key change in context. On Wednesday, Harden was sharing the backcourt with Donovan Mitchell. On Friday, Mitchell is out for rest, which shifts even more usage and playmaking responsibility onto Harden. So you’re getting a lower number, the same plus-money price, and increased opportunity—that’s an easy button to hit. I price the over 7.5 assists at -140.

The Pacers are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games. The Pacers aren’t a team surviving on effort alone. The Pacers can score, and they do it efficiently. In a game where Philadelphia is allowing 118.7 points per game, and Indiana is giving up 121.9, stops are going to be hard to find.

Bridges shot well before opting not to (he dished out six assists), finishing 4 for 4 with two triples and 10 points last night. He’s hitting at a 53% clip over his last eight outings, putting up 13 or more points in six of those contests. Bridges has played well versus Toronto, scoring 11, 14, 15, and 30 points in four meetings this season. Tonight’s projections paint the same picture they did yesterday, with Bridges forecasted for at least 14 points.

New York is 9-1-0 against the spread against the Raptors in the last 10 meetings. 

The formula has been brutally simple: in every game, New York has outscored them from 3-point range and beaten Toronto up on the glass, winning the rebounding battle each time.

Boston sports one of the best defenses in the Association. The Celtics allow the fewest points per game (107) and own the fourth-best defensive rating (111.8). The C’s also sport the slowest pace, and with a 29-51 mark, they’ve hit the Under at a higher percentage than any other team (63.8%).

New Orleans will be without Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson and Yves Missi, while key scorer Saddiq Bey is listed as questionable. Rookies Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen will have to shoulder the load offensively, and my money’s on Boston’s world-class defense locking down a road team led by a pair of rookies.

The 5th-quickest pace team in the league over the last 5 games has been the New Orleans Pelicans.. Offensive rebounds save possession and spark added chances for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans grade out 8th-best in in the NBA with 12.1 offensive boards per game this year.. This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 free throws per game (8th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Celtics, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA as the home team this year.

With just two games remaining, the San Antonio Spurs have locked up the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. With no chance of its status changing, San Antonio will have no motivation to play its starters big minutes. Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama are banged up and questionable.

For the Dallas Mavericks, it’s Cooper Flagg or bust - more so than it has been for most of the season. The Mavs will be without most of their frontcourt rotation and a number of key starters and reserves. Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago, so the team’s energy may be low.

With both teams dealing with injuries and neither playing for much of anything tonight, I expect the offenses to stall out, leading to a low-scoring contest.

Victor Wembanyama has compiled 31.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.8 more than he's compiled over the course of the year.. The Spurs are expected to see a rise in plays today from sharing the court with the 4th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA this year (the Dallas Mavericks).. The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Chicago is 23rd in defensive rating over the last 10 contests, allowing more than 127 points per game in that span. More than 70 of those points are coming from opposing guards. Chicago is down to eight healthy bodies and many of those guys are D-League callups. On top of that lack of talent, the Bulls are playing the second of back-to-back games after winning in Washington Thursday. Before a recent lull in offensive activity, Suggs was averaging around 14 points per outing. His player projections for Friday expect one better from the Gonzaga product, with his scoring forecast ranging from 15.2 to 16.1 points.

I like Banchero Over 8.5 Rebounds with projections flirting with nine rebounds and Chicago playing the second night of back-to-back games and losing Guerschon Yabusele to an injury last night. The Bulls are extremely shorthanded inside and Paolo is averaging 8.3 rebounds on 14.3 rebound chances since the All-Star break. 

With the Thunder clinching the No. 1 seed, they've given most of their rotation players the night off. Four starters, including MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, have been ruled out along with several key bench players. OKC has just eight players available for tonight with three of them on two-way contracts. Their best offensive player will likely be Lu Dort (38.7 FG%) who has always been a poor shooter. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have listed all five starters, including three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, as questionable. This game could be ugly and since we don't know who will suit up for Denver, I'll fade OKC on its team total. 

This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 3.9 three attempts per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, creating a challenging matchup.. The 10th-most lethargic pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).. Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (5th-lowest in the league) against the Nuggets, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

With a 19.6 PPG average so far in April, after a 19.8 PPG mark in March, Amen Thompson taken some of the scoring burden off Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, and I see Thompson sparking a ninth straight win for Houston tonight. Despite largely giving up on 3-pointers, Thompson has gone past this points prop O/U in three of his last four outings, and he’s shot 50% or better from the field in 13 of his last 14 contests.

The Houston Rockets have been the least aggressive offense in the league while at home this year when it comes to three-point attempts.. The Rockets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year.. Over the last 20 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 2.2 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Timberwolves, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

The Warriors have taken four of five in this head-to-head, and aside from the last meeting, have won by at least 26 points in the other three wins.

But these aren't the same Warriors. And while they should win, they're really just trying to get Steph Curry up to full speed before the play-in. That's no stress, and definitely not a blowout.

The Kings have played at the 10th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games at home, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Golden State Warriors.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Warriors rank 4th-best in in the NBA as the road team with 13.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

The decision to back Jrue Holiday’s points prop is tied not only to the elevated minutes in an important game, but also to the matchup with Brook Lopez at center for the Clippers. Lopez prioritizes a deep drop coverage because it’s what allows him to be effective defensively. At this stage of his career, he doesn’t have the mobility to consistently step up and defend on the perimeter—it’s simply not his style. That defensive approach opens up a ton of above-the-break three-point opportunities and mid-range jumpers in pick-and-roll situations for the ball handler. This is a perfect fit for how Holiday prefers to score. Holiday also knocked down seven three-pointers in their previous meeting a couple of weeks ago, which further highlights the upside in this matchup. I price the Over 17.5 points at -165. 

There are a ton of games on the NBA slate for Friday, but this one might carry the most meaning. The Portland Trail Blazers are trying to catch the Los Angeles Clippers for the 8-seed to avoid having to win two games in the play-in tournament. The Clippers only hold a one-game lead, and this is a head-to-head matchup. What that means is we should see elevated minutes for Portland’s starters, which is why I’m targeting Deni Avdija’s points prop. The Clippers have several talented defenders, but they don’t match up particularly well with Avdija’s style of play. Kris Dunn is too small, and while Derrick Jones Jr. has the length, he’s too lean to handle Avdija’s physical, downhill approach. This prop is priced at -120 for over 25.5 points, but I make it closer to -175, which suggests there’s clear value to exploit.

Player projections are also cooling on James’ playmaking versus the Suns. His assist forecasts top out at 8.1 with most sitting shy of eight dimes against an inflated assist O/U. Marcus Smart could return and take the ball out of LeBron's hands. Smart gives L.A. much-needed backcourt depth and allows James to play his natural position off the ball, which makes him more of a shooter rather than a facilitator. Before Luka got hurt, James was averaging around seven assists during the Lakers’ red-hot run through March.

Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, and the Suns rank 3rd-best in the league when playing on the road with 13.5 offensive boards per game this year.. Over the last 17 games when they are on the road, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (10th-highest in the league) against the Lakers, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.