Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game April 26, 2026
BOS
@
PHI
Sun, Apr 26 • 7:00 PM ET
BOS -7.5 (-105)
While Philadelphia's bench players are getting exposed in the post in Embiid's absence, it highlights an overall Boston advantage in depth. The Celtics' bench outscored the Sixers' bench 35-14. They also logged significantly more minutes—92 to 52.
For the series, the bench scoring mismatch is 92-62 in Boston's favor, and the bench's minutes played are 264-225. The longer the series goes on, the more it will benefit the Boston starters.
Nikola Vucevic is in a mismatch with Bona, who can't stay on the floor with fouls and bad plays, and Drummond. He has 17 rebounds in the three games and could increase that if Philly relies more on the outside shot.
VJ Edgecombe has been Philly's best rebounding option with Embiid out. He hit double figures on the boards in each of the last two games and has 39 rebounds in the last five.
Tyrese Maxey found success from outside late in the last game, making four straight from three-point range in the second half. He's been hampered by a finger injury and made just 16 of 55 threes for a .291 percentage over a 10-game stretch before hitting five in each of the last two games.
Jaylen Brown has hit 13 threes in the last five games.
LAL
@
HOU
Sun, Apr 26 • 9:30 PM ET
Marcus Smart o16.5 Points and Assists (-110)
Through the first three games of the series, Smart has averaged 28.6 points+assists while logging 36 minutes per game. His usage has increased from 15.1 in the regular season to 23.5 in the postseason. He finished with 23 points+assists in Game 1 and followed it up with 32 and 31 in Games 2 and 3, respectively.
Houston’s defense has been poor and undisciplined in the postseason. The Rockets have surrendered the third-most free-throw attempts (28.7), third-most assists (26) and highest three-point percentage (46.1). Houston’s 110.3 defensive rating ranks 10th, and the team has allowed the eighth-most points (106.7).
Smart has averaged 8.3 assists and knocked down 8-of-16 triples through the first three games of the series, and the matchup with Houston sets him up favorably to have another successful performance as a scorer and facilitator.
Father Time’s undefeated record is certainly in question, as LeBron James’ fingerprints are all over this series. King James has hit the Over on this line in three straight, and he ended the regular season with 40+ PRA in three of four contests. He knows what it takes to close the series out, and I expect another big game.
Rui Hachimura finished Friday’s win with 22 points, and he’ll look to build on that performance in Game 4. Hachimura has started eight straight games, averaging 16.5 points along the way. He’s scored 15+ in four of those eight.
Like Rui, Luke Kennard has started eight straight games. In that span, he’s averaged 15.6 points and scored 13+ six times. Kennard has really come alive in the playoffs, averaging 21.3 points across the first three games of the series.
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DET
@
ORL
Mon, Apr 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Wendell Carter Jr. o10.5 Points Scored (-115)
Among players with 25+ playoff minutes per game, Carter is tops in offensive rebound percentage (10.7%). Detroit was also vulnerable on the glass during the regular season, surrendering the seventh-most boards and fourth-most offensive rebounds per match. Carter is a spacing and size mismatch for the Pistons, and his shooting and rebounding abilities will lead to another 11+ point performance at home.
Wendell Carter Jr. o10.5 Points Scored (-120)
Carter scored 11+ points in 45 of 78 regular-season matchups, and he’s reached that total in two of three playoff games. He was an effective scorer at Kia Center, going for 11+ points in 25 of 40 home contests.
Carter Jr. has hit the Over on this scoring line in three of his last four against the Pistons while averaging 11.5 points per game. He’s got a strong advantage on the glass that he can parlay into second-chance scoring opportunities.
Among players with 25+ playoff minutes per game, he’s tops in offensive rebound percentage at 10.7%. Detroit has been vulnerable on the glass, surrendering the seventh-most boards and fourth-most offensive rebounds.
Carter is a spacing and size mismatch for the Pistons, and his shooting and rebounding abilities will lead to another 11+-point scoring performance at home.
OKC
@
PHO
Mon, Apr 27 • 9:30 PM ET
Dillon Brooks o18.5 Points Scored (-105)
The Brooks-related headline has been that he has scored 30+ points in each of his last two games, averaging 27 points per game in this series. But the actual stat to note is that he has taken at least 21 shots in each game of the series. Meanwhile, Devin Booker has not taken more than 17 shots in a game. Brooks has taken a total of 19 more shots than the Suns’ cornerstone has, a reality created intentionally by the Thunder.
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