Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 1, 2026
DET
@
ORL
Fri, May 1 • 7:00 PM ET
ORL 1st Half +2.5 (-122)
This is a hot spot for Orlando. They've led at the half in 9 of their last 10 home games and are 6-1 ATS in the 1st Half since the start of the play-in. I'd be surprised if the Pistons replicate their offensive performance from Game 5, especially on the road where their shooting was horrendous in Games 3 & 4.
Desmond Bane o2.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)
The Orlando Magic have the Pistons on the ropes, but they’ll need the best of Desmond Bane to land the knockout punch tonight, especially with Franz Wagner ruled out. Bane is only shooting 38% from the field overall in this series, but he’s making his 3-pointers at a 43% clip. Given his up-and-down points tallies, I prefer the Over on his triples here. He’s cashed this prop in three straight outings while making 16 of his 29 attempts from downtown. After Paolo Banchero’s 45-point eruption in Game 5, we could see Detroit make some defensive adjustments to pack the paint, and any double teams would open up a little extra airspace for Bane from deep.
CLE
@
TOR
Fri, May 1 • 7:30 PM ET
Collin Murray-Boyles o6.5 Total Rebounds (-112)
Murray-Boyles has looked right at home from the moment he stepped into the playoff cauldron, and he’s a key man here as the Raptors try to force a Game 7. CMB has been a beast in the paint, with 7+ rebounds in three of the last four contests despite battling Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, and he’s blown past this O/U number in both outings at Scotiabank Arena. Foul trouble limited him to 26 minutes in Game 5, but he could be looking at his biggest workload of the series tonight, given his ability to switch onto the Cleveland guards and Jakob Poeltl’s struggles defending the pick and roll. Murray-Boyles grabbed five offensive boards in Sunday’s win, and there should be rebounds up for grabs after the Cavs shot a combined 40% from the field in their two losses in Toronto.
Evan Mobley o16.5 Points Scored (-110)
The Cavs made an effort to feed Evan Mobley the ball in the second half of Game 5 and he scored 16 of his 23 points in those final two quarters. Toronto's frontcourt is limping into Game 6 with Barnes and Ingram hobbled. The Raptors frontcourt is running out of options against the versatile Mobley, who is projected for as many as 18 points. I believe his ceiling is much high considering the focused effort to feed the bigs and the injuries to Toronto's defenders.
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LAL
@
HOU
Fri, May 1 • 9:30 PM ET
LeBron James o22.5 Points Scored (-112)
Look for LeBron to come out in attack mode in Game 6, with growing fears that the Lakers could become the first team to blow a 3-0 lead. He won’t want that on his resume in the same week that he’s brought up the GOAT conversation again. Even with Austin Reaves returning, L.A. needs James to be a high-volume shooter, and I like this Over on the heels of 25+ points in three of his past four games. LeBron’s slump from beyond the arc is a concern, but there are still positives for the Lakers if it nudges him into the post more often. He’s shooting 51% on 2-pointers in this series, and that’s the recipe for JJ Redick’s men to escape with a victory here.
Tari Eason u7.5 Total Rebounds (-125)
With Eason primarily guarding James, his floor positioning shifts with Reaves back in the L.A. rotation. LeBron takes over as the primary ball handler, playing more on the perimeter while Reaves looks to attack the Houston interior. Eason gets dragged away from the rim, which is why his rebounding chances dipped in with Reaves back in Game 5 and why his projections sit short of his rebounding total for tonight. The 6-foot-6 forward is forecasted for around seven boards with most models sit south of 7.0.
PHI
@
BOS
Sat, May 2 • 7:30 PM ET
Joel Embiid o4.5 Total Assists (-110)
Embiid’s return has flipped this series on its ear. The 76ers center is beating up Boston’s lack of depth inside and when the Celtics do send double teams, Embiid is finding cutters and open shooters. He’s dished out 22 total assists on 30 potential dimes through three games and continues to serve as a conduit for the Sixers on Saturday.
Kelly Oubre Jr. o9.5 Points Scored (+100)
Oubre found his way back into the offense in Game 6. His usage surged back to 17% and led to a 6-for-11 performance for 14 points. He was active off the ball, cutting to the rim for easy buckets when Embiid was doubled and finding his way inside off screen action. Projections for Game 7 sit between 12.5 and 13 points. Oubre has scored 10 or more points in eight of his last 10 games and 11 of his last 16 outings since returning from an elbow injury at the end of March.
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