Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 4, 2026
PHI
@
NY
Mon, May 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Paul George o14.5 Points Scored (-120)
The market continues to disrespect Playoff P, and if that’s the case, we’re going to keep backing the over on Paul George’s points prop. The total is sitting at 14.5 with -120 juice on the over, but I make it closer to -215 for George to clear this number. While these were elimination games, George has played 40+ minutes in each of his last three playoff outings. The Sixers are essentially relying on six players to carry the full workload. I don’t even need 40 minutes here—if he’s playing in the high 30s, a 14.5-point line is simply too low. George doesn’t need to create much on his own either. On paper, he draws a tough defender in OG Anunoby, but Anunoby will likely be more focused on helping against Joel Embiid than locking in as George’s primary defender. If George logs heavy minutes, gets up around 13 shots, and plays off the gravity of Embiid and Maxey, that should be more than enough to clear this number.
Mikal Bridges o1.5 3-Pointers Made (+138)
Player forecasts range from 1.4 to 1.9 3-point makes for Bridges with the bulk of models short of two triples. But this is a bet I’m willing to go against the grain with, given the matchup and plus-money return. The 76ers perimeter defense got a little lucky vs. the Celtics. Almost 83% of Boston’s 3-point attempts came without a defender within at least four feet, as the C’s just whiffed on open looks. Bridges, who shot less than three triples per game in Round 1, averages more than five 3-point attempts per home game on the year and thr 76ers' interior defense pushing the Knicks to play a more perimeter-centric offense.
MIN
@
SA
Mon, May 4 • 9:30 PM ET
Rudy Gobert u10.5 Total Rebounds (+102)
Victor Wembanyama can camp out in the paint on defense when Gobert is in the game, stifling any Minnesota drives. Without their two best shooters, the Timberwolves need some space inside. Expect more five-out lineups from Minnesota with Julius Randle the primary defender on Wembanyama.
If Randle hits a couple 3-pointers, Minnesota will suddenly have a viable offensive plan against the Defensive Player of The Year. And while Randle is a streaky shooter, he did hit multiple 3-pointers in three of the six games against the Nuggets.
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