NBA Picks

Jalen Johnson has been one of the most versatile all-around threats in the NBA this year, averaging a combined PRA of 41.3 per contest this season. The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, giving up 121.2 ppg on the season and ranking 28th in defensive efficiency. Sacramento has lost four of its last five while playing out the string, and I like Johnson to put up big numbers against the Kings tonight.

As it relates to shooting, the Hawks's exceptional 124.1 points per game settles in as the strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games.. The matchup vs. the Kings is a positive one for 3-point shots; the opposition's starting SFs have averaged the 3rd-most 3-pointers per game in the league this year (2.3).. The Hawks have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games while at home.. The matchup against the Kings is a positive one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SFs have attempted an enormous 3.1 foul shots per game this year (9th-most in the NBA).

Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have allowed the third-most points per game at 128.1, while the Grizzlies have surrendered the fourth-most at 126.4. In that span, Chicago’s 120.7 defensive rating ranks 24th, and Memphis’ 125.1 defensive rating ranks 28th.

Chicago sports the fastest pace across the last 10 games at 104.8, while Memphis isn’t far behind in ninth with a 101.1 pace. 

Injuries have decimated both teams, and both are playing the second legs of back-to-back sets, but fatigue isn’t something I’m worried about. Memphis players rarely sniff 30 minutes these days, and the roster is one of the youngest in the Association. Chicago is going deep down the bench, so the available players should all have relatively fresh legs.

When it comes to three-point attempts, the most aggressive team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Grizzlies.. The 6th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Grizzlies.. The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to get a boost in plays today from facing the quickest pace team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls).

Utah has either lost by less than 17 points or outright won eight of their last 10 games, including a close loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday. The Jazz are 18-17 ATS on the road and 16-16 as the road underdog. Utah is 3-1 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points on the road.

The Phoenix Suns haven’t played well enough as of late to be favored by 17 points. The Suns are 7-3 ATS across their last 10 games, but Phoenix is just 4-6 straight up and won only one game by 17 or more points. Phoenix is just 10-11 ATS as the home favorite and 2-2 when favored by at least 10 points at home.

Phoenix has the rest advantage tonight, as the Jazz are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set. Bettors shouldn’t be concerned, as the Jazz are 8-6 ATS on no rest. I’ll take the shorthanded Jazz to keep this game within punching distance and cover a monstrously large spread.

Oso Ighodaro has tallied 12.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.4 higher than he's tallied in all games this season.. The Phoenix Suns are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 2nd-fastest pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Jazz).. The Suns rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed out (knee), and there’s no reason for him to play considering the Bucks are 2-8 over their last 10 and out of the play-in race. Take the Clippers to pull away at Fiserv Forum.