NBA Picks

We’re calling him Playoff P for Game 6 because we’re backing the over on Paul George’s points prop on Thursday. The total is sitting at 15.5 with -108 juice on the over, and that’s a price point we’re attacking, as I make the over closer to -180. What really draws me to this bet is that our edge assumes George plays around 35 minutes. In the regular season, that would be a heavy workload, but this is a do-or-die Game 6 at home. In Game 5, George played 43 minutes, so it’s very realistic that Nick Nurse leans on the veteran again. His defense is crucial against Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, which should keep him on the floor for extended stretches. At a 15.5-point line, he doesn’t need to do anything extraordinary offensively—just work off the gravity of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey and convert the 13–15 field-goal attempts that should come his way.

Over the first five games of the series, Jamal Murray is averaging 26.0 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game, and outside of a dip in Game 3, his numbers have been similar every night. With Minnesota dealing with injuries to Anthony Edwards and others, the Nuggets should put up big numbers tonight, and Murray will be at the center of the action.

The Cavs made an effort to feed Evan Mobley the ball in the second half of Game 5 and he scored 16 of his 23 points in those final two quarters. Toronto's frontcourt is limping into Game 6 with Barnes and Ingram hobbled. The Raptors frontcourt is running out of options against the versatile Mobley, who is projected for as many as 18 points. I believe his ceiling is much high considering the focused effort to feed the bigs and the injuries to Toronto's defenders.

In games with Reaves in and Luka Doncic out, James becomes the primary ball handler. And if we look across the Lakers’ season, we see LeBron dishing out around 10 assists per contest in those Luka-less spots. He had only seven assists on 13 potential dimes in Game 5 and his projections for Friday lean toward eight assists. With improved shooting fueled by Reaves shaking off the rust and tightening the belt on turnovers, I don’t see L.A. pissing away James’ passes and have a higher assist ceiling for “The King”.