Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game April 30, 2026
NY
@
ATL
Thu, Apr 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Karl-Anthony Towns o22.5 Points and Assists (-112)
Karl-Anthony Towns scored 14 points in the first half of Game 5 and the Hawks had no answer for the Knicks 7-footer. Then he managed only two more points in the 2H, as he logged limited minutes in the blowout. KAT continues to grow as a playmaker out of the high post, dishing out 16 total assists the past two contests. With Game 6 expected to be tighter, Towns logs major minutes and packs the box score with points and assists, going Over his combo prop of 22.5 O/U.
The Hawks survive on home cooking in the ATL. McCollum and Nickeil Alexander-Walker get back to attacking from beyond the arc, and this final score goes Over the diminutive total of 214 points. Games with closing totals of 214 or shorter have finished 4-2 O/U in the playoffs.
BOS
@
PHI
Thu, Apr 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Payton Pritchard o13.5 Points Scored (-112)
Pritchard is picking up the slack, not just left by stars like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum but also the rest of the Celtics’ support staff. Derrick White is broken and Sam Hauser is ineffective, leaving key minutes to fall to Pritchard. He’s a collective 22 for 43 from the field the past three games (51%) and with Game 6 expected to be the tightest of the series (Boston -6.5), game script says he’ll log his standard of 32+ minutes. Player projections are positive for Pritchard as well, with models ranging from 14.9 to 15.3 points in a crucial contest for the Celtics.
The Celtics’ struggles aren’t deep rooted. They simply live by the three and die by the three. Boston was in command but got passive and that led to cold shooting in the home stretch of Game 5. I expect the C’s to come out swinging and make good on a 70% ATS win rate off a loss over the past three seasons.
Pritchard is a collective 22 for 43 from the field the past three games (51%) and with Game 6 expected to be the tightest of the series (Boston -5.5), game script says he’ll log his standard of 32+ minutes. Player projections are positive for Pritchard as well, with models ranging from 14.9 to 15.3 points in a crucial contest for the Celtics.
Tyrese Maxey won’t roll over for Boston at home. And with game script calling for the Sixers to play from behind, he’ll try to play catch-up from outside the arc. He’s made three or more triples in each of the past four games in this series.
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DEN
@
MIN
Thu, Apr 30 • 9:30 PM ET
Nikola Jokic u29.5 Points Scored (-112)
Nikola Jokic has yet to score more than 27 points in a game in this series, and with the Timberwolves needing to find their most aggressive defense of the series in this Game 6, there is no reason to think Jokic is suddenly going to find the energy reserves to score 30.
This is the Timberwolves’ best chance, and do not underestimate their ability to adjust. That is the hallmark of any team enjoying postseason success in the modern NBA, and Minnesota reached the Western Conference Finals in each of the last two springs. Some adjustments were clearly made. If this week’s adjustment catches the Nuggets off guard, that should yield a Timberwolves win.
CLE
@
TOR
Fri, May 1 • 7:30 PM ET
Evan Mobley o16.5 Points Scored (-110)
The Cavs made an effort to feed Evan Mobley the ball in the second half of Game 5 and he scored 16 of his 23 points in those final two quarters. Toronto's frontcourt is limping into Game 6 with Barnes and Ingram hobbled. The Raptors frontcourt is running out of options against the versatile Mobley, who is projected for as many as 18 points. I believe his ceiling is much high considering the focused effort to feed the bigs and the injuries to Toronto's defenders.
The Cavaliers came out feeding their big men in the second half of Game 5. Toronto doesn’t have the bodies to battle that halfcourt attack, which will slow the pace of this game. The Raptors offense will also be disjointed with Brandon Ingram potentially out and Scottie Barnes limping around the court, unable to create his own shot.
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