NBA Picks

Boston has consistently pulvarized the Warriors early, with halftime leads of 23, 15, and 44 in three of their last four meetings. Add in the motivation factor of playing at home in a meaningful spot against a banged-up Golden State team that beat them in the Finals a few years ago. The Celtics rank 3rd in first-half net rating over their last 10 games, while the Warriors sit at 20th. Everything points to another fast start.

 

Wednesday’s matchup at TD Garden will be a slow and methodical slugfest between hard-nosed defenses. The Boston Celtics sport the slowest pace in the Association, and the Golden State Warriors own the sixth-slowest pace across their last 10 games. 

Jerami Grant has put up a whopping 18.7 points per game this season, a significant increase from his 14.4 points per game last season.. The 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Portland Trail Blazers.. The Trail Blazers will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 6th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Pacers).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Trail Blazers rank best in in the league with 14.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.. This year, opposing starting PFs have attempted 5.8 foul shots per game (highest in the league) vs. the Pacers, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.

The 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Portland Trail Blazers.. The Trail Blazers will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 6th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Pacers).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Trail Blazers rank best in in the league with 14.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.. The matchup vs. Indiana may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a whopping 5.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Indiana Pacers have the home court advantage (7th-most in the league).

The Nets have been a good bet of late, going 4-2-0 ATS in their last six, and they’ve hung with OKC, suffering just two 20+ point losses in the last eight.

The Nets have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league this year, which should reduce plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Thunder have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Before locking this in, make sure to shop the alternate markets. Most books have Immanuel Quickley’s assists line at Over 5.5 with heavy juice, which often signals there’s a more appealing plus-money price on 7+ in the alt lines. I price Quickley at -145 for Over 6.5 assists, so there’s clear value here. From a matchup standpoint, Jalen Smith typically plays drop coverage, but Quickley’s floater and mid-range game will force him to step up in pick-and-roll situations. That’s where Quickley thrives—he’s excellent at using the snake dribble to get into the lane and manipulate defenders. Smith also struggles to defend in space, which should allow Quickley to break down the coverage and create easy passing opportunities for his bigs. On top of that, the Bulls offer very little resistance at the point of attack, giving Quickley the freedom to get wherever he wants on the floor and consistently generate assist chances.

 

Josh Giddey is logging 12 dimes and 11.7 boards per game in March – those numbers rank first and fourth, respectively, among all players.

The Bulls point guard has recorded Over 20.5 assists and rebounds in five straight and six of his last seven outings.

The 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the league this year has been the Clippers.. The LA Clippers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting SGs have attempted 1.0 free throws per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, struggling to draw fouls.

With respect to threes, the LA Clippers's stellar 36.7% rate of drained threes when playing away from home settles in as the 8th-most in the NBA over the last 20 games.. The LA Clippers will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Pelicans).. Over the last 15 games when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.7 free throws per game (7th-most in the league) against the Pelicans, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

The Jazz don’t appear eager to add to their win total, but the weeks ahead represent a chance to evaluate the roster. That’s good news for Cody Williams, who’s played 36+ minutes in six straight games, nailing this combo Over in five of those outings. Williams had an eye-popping 34-7-7 stat line on Sunday, and he should be busy again here as Utah struggles on without Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George. Minnesota can be elite defensively, but Williams doesn’t even have to hit his March averages of 14.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 4.4 APG to make this prop a winner.

When it comes to three-pointers, the Jazz's unimpressive 33.3% rate of successful threes away from their home court places 5th-worst in the NBA this year.. This year, the opposition's starting PGs have shot 39.8% on shot attempts from the field (lowest in the league) against the Timberwolves, branding this as a difficult matchup.. Over the last 15 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (5th-fewest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

Dallas has been a disaster out of the gate, going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 first quarters at home, and that trend lines up perfectly with Atlanta’s recent surge. The Hawks lead the NBA in first quarter net rating and point differential over their last 10 games, posting a +6.1 margin while averaging a league best 33.6 points. Meanwhile, the Mavericks rank 29th in both categories, creating a clear early edge.

Johnson has hit the Over in assists in three straight appearances, dishing out 13 and 12 dimes across his previous two games. The Hawks take on the Dallas Mavericks this evening, and he had eight assists against them earlier this month. 

Nikola Jokic is truly a generational playmaker. He leads the Association in assists with 10.6 per night, and the Nuggets big man truly cannot be stopped right now. Jokic has comfortably cashed the Over in five straight appearances. In fact, he’s dished out 28 dimes across his previous two games alone. 

Jokic has hit the Over in five straight outings for the Denver Nuggets, and he’s dished out 28 assists across his last two contests alone. The Joker had 14 dimes on Tuesday against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Nuggets face the lowly Memphis Grizzlies this evening, and Jokic is averaging 12.5 assists against them across two meetings this season.

These teams just faced off on Monday, and the Los Angeles Lakers consistently blitzed Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter. That strategy led to multiple turnovers and completely stalled out the Rockets’ offense. The main issue was who Durant was forced to give the ball to. That’s where an adjustment should come into play. Expect the Rockets to put Reed Sheppard on the ball more—either as the primary initiator or as the immediate release valve for Durant. His shooting ability alone makes defenses think twice about sending aggressive doubles, and when he does receive the ball, he’ll often be operating in a 4-on-3 advantage. That setup should naturally lead to more playmaking opportunities. Sheppard recorded 10 potential assists in the last matchup, and with a likely shift in how Houston handles the blitz, that number could climb even higher. At +118 for Over 3.5 assists, this line stands out, especially with my price closer to -165.

The Slovenian leads the Association in points with 32.9 per game. Doncic is averaging 34.3 PPG in March so far, with a few massive outings. The former Mav has cashed the Over in points in four of his last six appearances, and he just erupted for 36 points on Monday versus the Houston Rockets. That’s who the Lakers are set to face again tonight. 

The Bulls have won two straight against Cleveland, both as underdogs. With Cavs starting center Jarrett Allen listed out, back Chicago to keep things close at home.