NBA Picks

Boston has been dominant after losses, going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their last five games in this spot with an average win margin of 19.6. Coming off a brutal 29-point home loss to the Hornets—their worst of the season and largest home defeat since 2021—they should be extremely motivated to bounce back. Dallas is on the second night of a B2B, while Jayson Tatum will make his season debut for the Celtics. Boston also holds a 5th vs 24th net rating edge over the last 10 games and dominted Dallas when they played on February 4th.

In Tatum’s absence, Brown has taken his game to the next level, and I don’t see him taking a step back now. His scoring has been steady, but I’m taking the Over on his rebounds + assists combo prop, with the Boston star breezing past this number in his last six games.

Brown has excelled on the boards lately, averaging 10.0 RPG across his past six outings, and he’s pulled his playmaking up to five dimes per night this year. He should dominate against the undermanned Mavs, and it’s way too early to worry about Tatum eating into his stats.

The Miami Heat may be on the second night of a back-to-back, but this is an important game in the Southeast Division, and the starters’ minutes should reflect that. One head-to-head win could have a major impact on how the division race plays out between the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, and Orlando Magic. Tyler Herro is such a lethal shooter off the bounce — both from three-point range and in the mid-range — that Moussa Diabate will likely have to step up and show longer on pick-and-roll actions. That should open passing lanes to Miami’s bigs, creating high-value assist opportunities for Herro, especially with two lob threats at his disposal in Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware. I price the Over 3.5 assists at -145, which means we have a massive edge at the current price of +138.

Over the last 25 games, no team has been better ATS than the Charlotte Hornets, with a 19-6 record. In that span, Charlotte boasts a monstrous +308 point differential, easily the best mark in the Association.

Alperen Sengun has come up short of his scoring expectations in recent games, going 3-7 O/U against his points props the past 10 outings. Those results have cut his prop total down as much as two points, with Over 17.5 presenting buyback value. Sengun dropped 25 points on the Portland Trail Blazers with an inside-out effort in November. Player projections sit between 18.9 and 21.4 points against the Blazers tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to increase opportunities for the Rockets.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Houston Rockets grade out best in in the league with 15.4 offensive rebounds per game this year.

The Denver Nuggets are on the second night of a back-to-back, and this spread should suddenly favor the New York Knicks by more than a bucket. Denver has not yet found health, still without both Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson, creating defensive liabilities that should be exacerbated in this spot.

Jalen Brunson is trading at -104 for the Over 26.5 points, and that’s a number I’m definitely willing to attack, as I price it closer to -155. Denver is short on point-of-attack defenders capable of slowing down a player like Brunson, which should allow him to mismatch hunt throughout the game. Nikola Jokić also isn’t a deterrent to the types of shots Brunson prefers in pick-and-roll situations. Because Jokić typically plays in a deep drop, Brunson should have plenty of opportunities to get to his mid-range jumper — a shot he’s extremely comfortable taking. Karl-Anthony Towns being available as the screener further opens the floor for Brunson. The Nuggets can’t simply collapse on Brunson, as Jokić also has to respect Towns’ shooting ability. Whether it’s through isolation or pick-and-roll actions, Brunson should consistently find favorable opportunities against a tired Denver defense.

 

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should raise plays for the Suns.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Phoenix Suns rank best in in the league with 15.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should raise plays for the Suns.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Phoenix Suns rank best in in the league with 15.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

The Clippers have gone 8-1 against the spread since Bennedict Mathurin entered the lineup. The market overestimated the roster’s drop off at the trade deadline, and LA has been paying off its backers ever since.

It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the San Antonio Spurs, but that could actually benefit De’Aaron Fox. Victor Wembanyama logged 39 minutes in the front end against the Pistons, well above his season average. With that workload, it wouldn’t be surprising if Wembanyama is either ruled out for rest or placed on a minutes restriction against the Clippers, as the Spurs will want to protect him. If that happens, additional usage should shift toward Fox. Kris Dunn is a strong individual defender, but Brook Lopez won’t be able to contain Fox’s speed coming off screens in pick-and-roll actions. Fox should be able to exploit Lopez’s deep drop coverage, hunting mid-range jumpers or blowing past him to get to the rim. I price Fox at -215 to clear 15.5 points.

Tonight, he runs into an L.A. Lakers lineup missing key bodies on the boards. LeBron James and Deandre Ayton exited last night’s loss at Denver, and their status is in doubt. That’s almost 14 rebounds off the box score for L.A. 

Siakam has snatched six or more rebounds in 15 of his last 20 games while positioned for an average of 10.9 rebounding chances in that span. Projections range from 5.8 to 6.6 boards for the Indiana Pacers’ forward.

The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.