NBA Picks

Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game March 5, 2026

Dallas Mavericks logo DAL @ Orlando Magic logo ORL Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 3 Computer Picks
Total Assists
Desmond Bane logo Desmond Bane o3.5 Total Assists (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 minutes ago
Jon Metler image
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst

Desmond Bane is trading at -120 for the over 3.5 assists, and that’s a number I’m happy to attack as I price it closer to -230. Bane is averaging 9.3 potential assists over his last three games, which is a strong indicator of playmaking volume when the line is set at just 3.5. He’s facing a Mavericks team that lacks a true point-of-attack defender to slow him down. With how well he’s been shooting the ball lately, Dallas will need to stay attached and chase him around screens to limit his three-point looks. That should open up opportunities for Bane to put the ball on the floor, get into the lane, and create advantages, allowing him to generate assists against a defense that has been slow to rotate this season.

Game Prop
Dallas Mavericks logo u109.5 Team Total (-110)
Pick made: 1 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Orlando’s defense has held opponents to under 110 points in five of their last seven and will keep the Mavs offense in check tonight. 

View 5 Picks
Utah Jazz logo UTA @ Washington Wizards logo WAS Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Points Scored
KF
Kyle Filipowski o14.5 Points Scored (-108)
Projection 17.21 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The quickest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Utah Jazz.. The Wizards have played at the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA at home this year, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Utah Jazz.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Utah Jazz rank 6th-best in in the NBA while on the road with 13.3 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
Points Scored
Trae Young logo
Trae Young o13.5 Points Scored (-125)
Projection 15.65 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the Washington Wizards's exceptional 38.9% rate of made threes at home measures as the 5th-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Washington Wizards.. The Washington Wizards will likely see a spike in plays in this game from sharing the court with the most up-tempo pace-of-play visiting team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Jazz).
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Brooklyn Nets logo BK @ Miami Heat logo MIA Thu, Mar 5 • 7:30 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Points Scored
Nic Claxton logo
Nic Claxton o10.5 Points Scored (-108)
Projection 12.1 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Brooklyn Nets have been the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league when playing away from home this year in regard to three-point attempts.. The Miami Heat have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should raise opportunities for the Brooklyn Nets.
Total Assists
Tyler Herro logo
Tyler Herro o3.5 Total Assists (+112)
Projection 4.36 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Miami Heat have played at the fastest pace in the league this year.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 2nd-best in in the league with 14.2 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.
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Golden State Warriors logo GS @ Houston Rockets logo HOU Thu, Mar 5 • 7:30 PM ET
3 Computer Picks
Points Scored
Al Horford logo
Al Horford u10.5 Points Scored (-110)
Projection 8.88 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Warriors check in as the 6th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 15 games.. The Warriors will likely suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Rockets).
Points Scored
Gui Santos logo
Gui Santos o12.5 Points Scored (-110)
Projection 14.18 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Gui Santos has tallied 16.2 points per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 9.2 higher than he's tallied in all games this season on the road.. The 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Golden State Warriors.. The Golden State Warriors check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the away team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).. This year when they are on the road, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 3.5 free throws per game (6th-most in the league) against the Houston Rockets, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.
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Detroit Pistons logo DET @ San Antonio Spurs logo SA Thu, Mar 5 • 8:00 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Points Scored
Dylan Harper logo
Dylan Harper o9.5 Points Scored (-130)
Projection 11.45 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Spurs have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.. The Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.
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Toronto Raptors logo TOR @ Minnesota Timberwolves logo MIN Thu, Mar 5 • 8:00 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Points Scored
Anthony Edwards logo
Anthony Edwards u29.5 Points Scored (-120)
Projection 26.59 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting SGs have totaled 4.3 three attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the league) vs. the Toronto Raptors, marking this as a difficult matchup.. The Minnesota Timberwolves will likely see a decline in plays today from squaring off against the 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 20 games (the Raptors).. The matchup vs. the Toronto Raptors may be a tough one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting SGs have attempted just 1.2 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (least in the NBA).
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Chicago Bulls logo CHI @ Phoenix Suns logo PHO Thu, Mar 5 • 9:00 PM ET
4 Computer Picks
Points Scored
Tre Jones logo
Tre Jones u13.5 Points Scored (-125)
Projection 10.96 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Chicago Bulls will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from facing the slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).. The Bulls rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Points Scored
OI
Oso Ighodaro o7.5 Points Scored (-135)
Projection 10.12 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Chicago Bulls have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA away from their home court this year, which ought to boost plays for the Suns.. The Phoenix Suns check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
View 4 Picks
New Orleans Pelicans logo NO @ Sacramento Kings logo SAC Thu, Mar 5 • 10:00 PM ET
6 Computer Picks
Points Scored
Saddiq Bey logo
Saddiq Bey u21.5 Points Scored (-115)
Projection 17.47 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 37 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Pelicans check in as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the league while on the road this year.
Points Scored
Precious Achiuwa logo
Precious Achiuwa u13.5 Points Scored (-126)
Projection 11.7 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In regard to offense, the Sacramento Kings's feeble 110.2 points per game rates 2nd-worst in the NBA this year.
View 6 Picks
Los Angeles Lakers logo LAL @ Denver Nuggets logo DEN Thu, Mar 5 • 10:00 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 1 Computer Pick
MoneyLine
Los Angeles Lakers logo LAL (+125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 hours ago
Trevor Knapp image
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor

The Lakers have prevailed in three of their last four games against the Nuggets, and with Denver still missing power forward Aaron Gordon, I like L.A. to grind out a win at Ball Arena.

Points Scored
Marcus Smart logo
Marcus Smart o7.5 Points Scored (+100)
Projection 9.13 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on the road.
View 2 Picks

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