MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 87th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Comerica Park grades out as the #10 park in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.

Comerica Park grades out as the #10 park in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

Salvador Perez's BABIP skill is projected in the 11th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-coldest temperature of the day at 51°.. Chad Patrick will hold the platoon advantage against Salvador Perez in today's matchup.. Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's deepest LF fences in today's game.. Typically, bats like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chad Patrick.

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-coldest temperature of the day at 51°.. Luinder Avila will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his metrics in all categories.. Out of all starters, Luinder Avila's fastball spin rate of 2482 rpm is in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.

Hitting from the same side that Grant Taylor throws from, Kazuma Okamoto encounters a tough challenge today.. Kazuma Okamoto will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Munetaka Murakami in the 3rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Hitting from the same side that Mason Fluharty throws from, Munetaka Murakami will have a tough challenge in today's game.. The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.. Munetaka Murakami has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits recently, striking balls between -4° and 26° just 25% of the time in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Teoscar Hernandez has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. In terms of power, Teoscar Hernandez has performed in the 78th percentile, having averaged 24.7 dingers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

Andy Pages's batting average talent is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Utilizing Statcast data, Andy Pages grades out in the 85th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .279.. In notching a .279 batting average since the start of last season, Andy Pages finds himself in the 88th percentile.

What a start Jordan Alvarez has had to 2026, already hitting three bombs. The Houston slugger leads MLB with a .596 xwOBA, and his wOBA is second only to Sal Stewart.

His adjusted exit velo of 99.5 sits third in the bigs in the early season, and he’s cut down on his whiff rate against fastballs and breaking balls from last season.

Saturday gives him a matchup with favorable conditions, against a pitcher in Luis Morales who gave up three dingers in his opening start vs. Toronto. And he did so in less than five frames.

That’s a carryover from 2025, where Morales allowed a barrel rate of 10.9% and posted a 4.54 xFIP. He also coughed up 1.48 HR/9IP.

Alvarez has posted a wRC+ of 272 this season, third-best in the majors, while driving in a run in five of his first eight games. Add in an ISO of .480, and he’s primed to get into a pitch or two and bring in a run—doing so via a home run at +255 is worth a look too. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the driest conditions of all games on the slate today at 12%.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.6-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for pitchers.. Batting from the same side that Luis Morales throws from, Christian Walker has a tough challenge in today's game.

PNC Park has the 7th-most fair ground among all stadiums — generally bad for long-balls.. Shane Baz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Marcell Ozuna in today's matchup.. Marcell Ozuna has compiled a .232 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 25th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Marcell Ozuna has posted a .262 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 87°.. Henry Davis will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. Henry Davis has been hot of late, compiling a 94.7-mph average exit velocity in the last 7 days.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.297) implies that Henry Davis has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .232 actual wOBA.

Vasquez looked quite good in his opening start against the Tigers, allowing just two hits and three walks in 6 IP while striking out eight hitters. 

He showed a noticeable uptick in his fastball, sinker, and slider velocity over last season, something that was picked up on in spring training. That’s in addition to adding a good amount of spin to his cutter.

The wind in Boston is going to be blowing in from RF between 18-36 mph much of the game, which should limit big innings and allow him to go deeper into his start. 

Vasquez doesn’t need to recreate his first start. He just needs to get four Ks vs. a lineup striking out in 29.3% of plate appearances so far in 2026. That’s a great deal, even with the juice. 

Since the start of last season, Wilyer Abreu has been pulled from the game early in 10% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to less offense.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-coldest weather of all games today at 46°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 18.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hurlers.. When it comes to his batting average, Wilyer Abreu has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .257 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .230.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 16th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Yankee Stadium profiles as the #27 stadium in MLB for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 4th-lowest temperature on the schedule today at 53°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 13.9-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.

The #3 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 4th-lowest temperature on the schedule today at 53°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 13.9-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.. Hitting from the same side that Max Meyer throws from, Aaron Judge faces a tough challenge today.

Will Benson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Will Benson is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. Will Benson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 23% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season.. Globe Life Field ranks as the #29 stadium in the game for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Will Benson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Jake Burger is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. In MLB, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 7° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Jake Burger will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Kansas City bats are off to a bit of a slow start, ranking 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+, and face a Brewers bullpen that ranks second in xFIP.

The Brew Crew enter this game ranked third in both wRC+ and OPS and have plated six or more runs in five of their six games this season, going against Royals prospect Luinder Avila.

Royce Lewis's BABIP talent is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Royce Lewis is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. The 9th-deepest CF dimensions in the majors are found in Target Field.. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to drop to the lowest level on the slate today at 37°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. In the past week, Royce Lewis's swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 22.2% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The #5 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

Angel Martinez's BABIP skill is projected in the 21st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Angel Martinez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Over the last 7 days, Angel Martinez has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power).. Angel Martinez has shown some bad exit velocity statistics lately, averaging just 82.1-mph on his flyballs over the past 7 days.

Gabriel Arias has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for righty base hits.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 15.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.

When estimating his home run skill, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 15° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the game.. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 15° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.

It wasn’t a great season debut for Jesus Luzardo. The lefty got rocked in his first start, allowing a barrel rate of 11.8% as he surrendered six earned on six hits to the Rangers, including two balls that left the yard.

Yet he still struck out seven hitters with an arsenal that ranked him the 86th percentile in K rate and 87th percentile in whiff rate in 2025. He also was a bit unlucky, given his xERA of 2.86 and xFIP of 2.82 on the day.

That’s why I was shocked to see this strikeout total against Colorado. I was fully expecting it to be sitting at 7.5 with some juice on the Over, especially given the Rockies have struck out 32 times over the last two games.

Luzardo will be at a platoon disadvantage on Saturday but the Rockies have also whiffed in 12 of their 25 ABs vs. LHP this season. I’m jumping on this and laddering Luzardo up to 10 Ks as well.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Tyler Freeman will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.

Mark Vientos is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. Built just 8 feet above sea level, Oracle Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which often leads to less offense.. Hitting from the same side that Landen Roupp throws from, Mark Vientos will have a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mark Vientos in today's game.. Mark Vientos grades out in the 18th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (40.9% rate since the start of last season).

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Matt Chapman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Oracle Park projects as the #4 venue in the majors for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today's game.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

When estimating his home run talent, Logan O'Hoppe ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Logan O'Hoppe has strong power (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Emerson Hancock doesn't generate many whiffs (17th percentile K%) — great news for O'Hoppe.