MLB Picks

It wasn’t a great season debut for Jesus Luzardo. The lefty got rocked in his first start, allowing a barrel rate of 11.8% as he surrendered six earned on six hits to the Rangers, including two balls that left the yard.

Yet he still struck out seven hitters with an arsenal that ranked him the 86th percentile in K rate and 87th percentile in whiff rate in 2025. He also was a bit unlucky, given his xERA of 2.86 and xFIP of 2.82 on the day.

That’s why I was shocked to see this strikeout total against Colorado. I was fully expecting it to be sitting at 7.5 with some juice on the Over, especially given the Rockies have struck out 32 times over the last two games.

Luzardo will be at a platoon disadvantage on Saturday but the Rockies have also whiffed in 12 of their 25 ABs vs. LHP this season. I’m jumping on this and laddering Luzardo up to 10 Ks as well.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Given Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Kyle Karros will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. Kyle Karros will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The Giants are second-last in the majors in OPS (.554) while ranking last in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Mets new-look lineup plated 10 runs last night but had mustered just three runs over their previous three games. Mets starter Clay Holmes tends to look sharp in the early innings before unravelling mid-game. He had a 2.47 ERA with an OBA of .222 through the first two innings last year. San Fran responds with Landen Roupp who could have a breakout season if he can cut down his walks. He looked sharp in his season debut, allowing just two hits across six innings of shutout ball.

San Francisco has been the worst team in the league against RHP (55 wRC+). Holmes transitioned to the rotation in 2025 and made 31 starts and posted a solid 3.53 ERA thanks to a 75th-percentile barrel rate and 94th percentile ground ball rate. 

As for the Mets, star slugger Juan Soto departed Friday’s contest in the first inning with a right calf injury. It’d be surprising if he suits up Saturday, likely leaving them without their best player in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.

New York has cashed the Under in five of its last seven games; here’s predicting another.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Mike Trout projects as the 9th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #7 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Parker Messick shut out the Dodgers in his opening start and gets a Cubs offense that has scored fewer than three runs in three of their last five contests.

The Guardians’ sticks should get the best of Edward Cabrera and his history of command issues.

Walker Buehler is a proven veteran arm and is coming off a tough start, but Ranger Suarez is a gas can that the Padres' lineup can hammer for a solid road win.

Expect a bounce-back outing for Buehler and a Padres plus-money victory. 

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi pitched to a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He got rocked in his season debut and now he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and is due for positive regression. The Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill. He had a 3.73 ERA last year but his FIP was significantly worse at 4.86. He also has a tendency to get hit hard and struggled in his season debut. 

The Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He had a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year. Both teams are struggling at the dish but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while the Guardians are 27th. Expect the Cubs big bats to break out against Cecconi.