Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Pedro Pages will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Pedro Pages has been unlucky this year, notching a .255 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .280 — a .025 deviation.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 8th-best batter in baseball. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Posting a .292 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Nico Hoerner is ranked in the 96th percentile. Nico Hoerner has shown good plate discipline this year, placing in the 91st percentile with a 1.35 K/BB rate. Nico Hoerner has notched a .294 batting average this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. In the last week's worth of games, Dansby Swanson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.1% up to 25%. Compared to last season, Dansby Swanson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.8% to 49.2% this season.

Victor Scott II will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Masyn Winn will hold the platoon advantage over Shota Imanaga in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage today. Over the last 7 days, Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.3-mph over the course of the season to 95.4-mph recently.

Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the past week, Nolan Gorman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 109.1-mph recently. Nolan Gorman's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, going from 48.9% on the season to 83.3% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Ivan Herrera will have an advantage in today's matchup. Ivan Herrera hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like Ivan Herrera tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 16th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Seiya Suzuki has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last season to 18.7% this season.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today. Willson Contreras's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 15.1% to 18.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Sonny Gray in this game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. In the past week's worth of games, Ian Happ's 64.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.3%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.349) provides evidence that Ian Happ has experienced some negative variance this year with his .317 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (97% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Jordan Walker will have an edge today. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Thomas Saggese will have an edge today. Thomas Saggese will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Thomas Saggese has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 93.8-mph over the last 7 days.

Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Matt Shaw has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 5.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week. Matt Shaw has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 90.5-mph. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.3°, Matt Shaw has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 30.5° figure over the last week. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.253) may lead us to conclude that Matt Shaw has had some very poor luck this year with his .227 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Michael Busch is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. Michael Busch will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Busch has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Pete Crow-Armstrong can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage today. Over the past 14 days, Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph lately.

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Carson Kelly has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 6.6% rate last season to 11.7% this season. Utilizing Statcast data, Carson Kelly ranks in the 95th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .372. Carson Kelly has posted a .372 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Garrett Hampson will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's matchup. Garrett Hampson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Garrett Hampson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Garrett Hampson's launch angle from last season's 15.9° to 20.6° this year. Despite posting a .215 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Garrett Hampson has experienced some negative variance given the .055 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .270.

Willi Castro has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.