MLB Picks

Ryan Weiss doesn't need to be perfect today. He just needs to give the Houston Astros enough solid innings before their offense takes over. The Astros have the second-best offense in baseball with a 124 wRC+, while the Cleveland Guardians check in at exactly league average with a 100 wRC+. That gap matters late in a game when both starters are likely on short leashes; Parker Messick takes the hill after 112 pitches Thursday, while Weiss hasn’t gone more than 3 2/3 frames. Back the better bats in this one. 

As it relates to his home run ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Nolan Gorman's batting average skill is projected to be in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the 2nd-worst venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 86th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 4th-deepest RF fences today.. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nolan Gorman today.

The Brewers have too many key players (Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn, Christian Yelich) on the injured list to counter Keider Montero. And while Kyle Harrison has been effective on the mound, he missed his last start with an injury and may not be 100%.

Luis Gil has posted some of the worst underlying metrics in 2026 to begin the season for any starting pitcher. The command issues that tanked his 2025 persist, and a 6.40 xERA suggests a player who has been more bad than unlucky. Boston has enough power in the lineup to hurt him. They’ve done it before, and the sixth-best hard-hit rate in the league looms large here. At a pick-em price, the Red Sox have the better matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Mateo in the 15th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Jorge Mateo is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 4th-worst park in the game for right-handed batting average.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the majors's 14th-best home run batter.. Matt Wallner is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Matt Wallner will have the upper hand in today's game.

Jesus Luzardo is sporting a painful 7.94 ERA despite striking out six batters for every walk issued and allowing hard contact just 28.6% of the time. He has a 1.93 xFIP and 2.45 SIERA, excellent numbers that suggest much better days are ahead. Shota Imanaga has been lights out to date with sparkling metrics in many categories (2.45 ERA, 2.49 xFIP, 12.68 K/9). With strong bullpens behind these two starters – both teams rank Top-10 in xFIP this month – it’s difficult to envision either team putting up a ceiling performance at the plate.

Jeremiah Jackson has ripped lefty pitching this season, going 7-for-14 (.500) with a HR and five RBI, with a .714 slugging percentage.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 6th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Globe Life Field projects as the #30 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Globe Life Field's CF dimensions are the 6th-deepest.. Joc Pederson has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 9.8% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this season.. Joc Pederson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 39.5% to 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. The #1 venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report calls for the most suitable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Jack Kochanowicz is another arm to target on Dinger Tuesday. His command has been poor this year (15 walks in 23+ innings), and he also struggles to keep the ball in the park, allowing plenty of hard contact with the 14th-worst Blast Contact% since last season. He does generate ground balls, but when hitters elevate, it often leaves the yard — he had the highest HR/FB rate among MLB starters last year. Let’s back a name that has already cashed for us this season in Kazuma Okamoto, who brings strong home run metrics, especially in Blast Contact% and Ideal Attack Angle%. There’s some swing-and-miss, but the matchup is elite, and the price is right, with a breakeven around +650. It’s also a Top-10 park for right-handed power, and the wind blowing out only helps.

In the majors, Chase Field's centerfield fences are the 3rd-deepest.. In Major League Baseball, the 10th-highest fence height (on average) are at Chase Field.. Typically, batters like Adrian Del Castillo who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Sean Burke.. In terms of his batting average, Adrian Del Castillo has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .261 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .201.. Adrian Del Castillo has shown bad plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 12th percentile with a 6.06 K/BB rate.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Tyler Soderstrom ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Tyler Soderstrom is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Tyler Soderstrom will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Castillo in today's matchup... and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.. Tyler Soderstrom has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Landen Roupp has been superb with a 2.57 xERA and 2.21 FIP, and most of his underlying metrics are actually better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s.

The lineup is due for significant positive regression as the likes of Rafael Devers (.581 OPS), Jung Hoo Lee (.658), and Heliot Ramos (.686) will likely rebound after slow starts.