MLB Picks

This series has been my kryptonite this week when it comes to moneyline bets, but that won’t stop me from backing the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday. Max Meyer is essentially a two-pitch pitcher right now, relying heavily on his slider while struggling to command his four-seam fastball. That should allow Reds hitters to sit on the slider and force him to throw his fastball in the zone for strikes. If that’s the case, Cincinnati should be able to manufacture runs and potentially chase Meyer early, leading to extended exposure to the Marlins bullpen. I make the Reds closer to -110 favorites in this spot, but the market is offering +110, which makes this a number worth attacking.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Griffin Conine in the 12th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Griffin Conine is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. When starting against a northpaw since the start of last season, Griffin Conine has been pulled from the game early 28% of the time.. The #1 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.. The 4th-deepest right field fences in the league are found in LoanDepot Park.

Rooker was one of the heroes for the A’s yesterday with a game-winning sac fly RBI in the top of the ninth, and I’m banking on him to make a splash again today. The Oakland offense has been wildly erratic so far this season, but Rooker’s 2025 numbers suggest he can get to Yankees starter Ryan Weathers. 

Rooker had a .293 batting average against lefties last year, to go with a .885 OPS, and he blasted a home run off Weathers in a 2024 matchup during the pitcher’s time with the Miami Marlins.

 I am not high on Ryan Weathers, and I don’t think the Yankees are either, which is why it's more of a stopgap while the rest of the rotation gets healthy rather than an everyday guy. The pitch-to-contact guy who doesn’t get groundballs (bottom 40 percentile career) and historically bottom 30 percentile chase rate is one that a viable A's lineup can have success against.

This matchup has gone Over in six of the last 10 head-to-heads. Detroit's lineup has genuine pop, and Minnesota has averaged over six runs per game in its last three home games against these Tigers.

Once both starters exit, the Minnesota Twins bullpen is walking hitters at a nearly 15% rate. Detroit's relief corps is meaningfully better across every underlying metric. Trust Flaherty and the Tigers' bullpen edge. 

Things are looking up for Bo Bichette after a tough, strikeout-filled opening week that brought boos from Mets fans, and this is nice value for another busy day on the basepaths. He’s posted a solid .286 batting average so far in April, and he’s coming off a pair of singles in yesterday’s 7-2 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Bichette is still searching for his first home run of the year, but he’s swinging the bat confidently and I like the matchup today against Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez. While Rodriguez has been terrific in his first two starts of 2026, Bo has a 5-for-13 career record against the D-Backs lefty, including two homers and a double.

Adrian Del Castillo is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Adrian Del Castillo will hold the platoon advantage against Nolan McLean in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Adrian Del Castillo are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.

After some bumps in the road last year, Lugo is trying to rediscover his stellar 2024 form, which included a 3.00 ERA and 181 strikeouts. The early signs are promising this season. The veteran racked up seven strikeouts in five innings of work against the Milwaukee Brewers at the weekend, and he also hit this Over in his final three starts last season.

Look for the righty to settle in today against an underwhelming Chicago White Sox lineup. Andrew Benintendi and Reese McGuire are the only White Sox batters with a career hit against Lugo, and Chicago is tied for the fourth-fewest runs per game this year (3.42).

The Kansas City Royals are trading as a -173 favorite at Pinnacle, and this price still isn’t short enough—I make them closer to a -220 favorite in this matchup against the Chicago White Sox. Seth Lugo features a deep arsenal, mixing seven different pitches, with his curveball serving as his primary weapon. That variety of off-speed pitches should create significant problems for a young White Sox lineup. The lineup is anchored by Munetaka Murakami, who thrives when he can hunt fastballs—but that’s not what he’ll be seeing from Lugo on Thursday. If Murakami isn’t able to provide power in the middle of the order, the White Sox offense looks much less threatening.

The Colorado Rockies are on a four-game winning streak, but the shift from Coors Field to Petco Park is a dramatic change in ballpark factors—and one that’s difficult for their offense to adjust to after benefiting from the hitter-friendly environment in Colorado. Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres, and pitching at home is a significant advantage for him. He generates elite spin on his curveball (97th percentile), and the dense air in San Diego only adds more bite to that pitch. It’s a complete contrast to the off-speed pitches the Rockies were seeing in the thin air at Coors Field. The Padres are listed as -182 favorites, but I believe they should be closer to -235 in this matchup on Thursday.