MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as baseball's 19th-best home run batter.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest fences in MLB.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Colson Montgomery will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Troy Melton in today's matchup.

Michael McGreevy's ERA sits at nearly 5.0 when isolating matchups against Top-10 teams in OPS and xwOBA against right-handed pitching, and the Chicago Cubs hammered him for seven runs the last time he started against them.

Matthew Boyd has allowed 1.67 HR/9 at home this season, and favorable conditions at Wrigley could cause problems today.

Take the Over to -130.

The Jays own a .290 xBA against Schlittler and are striking out at just a 17% clip, which is incredible considering the right-hander owns a 31.4% K rate this year. On the other side, Brayden Fisher has made quick work of these Yankees, striking New York out 43% of the time over a smaller sample size (21 at-bats). We're rocking with the rested bullpen to keep this one close.

Throwing 97.3 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Logan Webb checks in at the 98th percentile.. Built just 8 feet above sea level, Oracle Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. This game is predicted to have the best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Logan Webb will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his metrics in all categories.. In his previous game started, Logan Webb was in good form and posted 7 strikeouts.

The Washington Nationals bullpen is going to need to throw six or seven innings this afternoon, and this New York Mets lineup has feasted on weak pitching even while struggling overall. On the other side, Washington will make solid contact against the soft-tossing Manaea, who throws his average fastball at just 90.8 mph. I'm backing the Over at up to 8.5 runs.

Pete Alonso is scorching right now, batting .522 with a .435 ISO and three homers over his last six games. His hard-hit and barrel numbers are elite, and Ian Seymour has allowed hard contact lately. With Tampa Bay’s bullpen struggling too, Alonso has multiple paths to clear 1.5 total bases.

JJ Bleday is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 84°.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, JJ Bleday will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. JJ Bleday pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

San Diego has the cleaner edge behind Randy Vasquez, who owns a 2.44 xERA over his last six outings while limiting homers and inducing ground balls. Joey Cantillo has struggled lately, allowing hard contact and home runs, while the Padres enter with a 139 wRC+ and .230 ISO over the last week. 

Jesús Luzardo's 5-1 record and 2.08 ERA over his last 10 starts give Philadelphia a clear pitching edge over rookie Connor Prielipp, making the Phillies moneyline worth playing to -145.

Just four of 16 Emerson Hancock starts have come against Top-10 offenses in ISO vs. righties. He didn’t hold up in those games, posting a 5.32 ERA. 

Hayden Wesneski ranks in the 16th percentile in xSLG and 12th percentile in xwOBA. Those are alarming numbers considering he has only faced the Angels, Blue Jays, and Giants – three bad offenses.

Bet the Over to -125.

Sonny Gray throws three pitches more frequently than the fastball. The Pittsburgh Pirates have posted a 3.9% barrel rate vs. the sinker, and have hit .235 or worse against sliders and cutters. 

Boston does not hit for much power against the fastball, and Jared Jones’ 95th percentile average fastball velocity will help him neutralize it.

Bet to -130.

The starter ERAs point toward a pitchers' game, but the underlying contact suggests otherwise.

Grant Holmes owns a 3.47 ERA despite a 4.76 xERA, 90.9-mph average exit velocity, 42.1% hard-hit rate, and 9.1% barrel rate. Rodriguez has his own separation between results and expected production, with opponents carrying a .445 xSLG against him. The Braves should get the best of the DBacks but it won’t come without allowing runs. Both starters have allowed enough damaging contact to make a total of 9 playable, especially with temperatures near 90 degrees at first pitch. I’d play Over 9.5 as the stronger call.

Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski is the favorite for the NL Cy Young, and has held opponents to two runs or fewer in 14 of his last 16 starts.

The Dodgers are ice-cold at the plate right now and have struggled against the four-seamer, which is Misiorowski's best pitch.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Hitters such as Mike Trout with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Randy Dobnak who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.