MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Miguel Vargas generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Trey Gibson.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. The #2 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games today at 93°.. Gabriel Arias has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 10th-best hitter in the league.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.6-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Bubba Chandler throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today's game.. Bryce Harper has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Temperatures are expected to approach the 90s in this game, making perfect conditions for the ball to carry in an already hitter-friendly ballpark.

Neither offense has garnered great results of late but the Tigers lead the majors in flyball rate this month while the Yankees come in at eight.

If the ball is consistently being put in the air, the runs should follow.

Play to -130.

 

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Juan Soto will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tsung-Che Cheng in the 7th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Tsung-Che Cheng is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.. Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest average fence height among all parks.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.

Jorge Mateo is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #5 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 5th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP skill.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 93°.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all stadiums, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. The weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

The #7 stadium in MLB for suppressing offensive stats to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) in the league.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -15° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Joe Ryan will have the handedness advantage over Christian Walker in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Ryan's large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense.. Hitting from the same side that Kyle Freeland throws from, Graham Pauley has a tough challenge today.. Graham Pauley will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

Cal Raleigh has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (99% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst park in baseball for lefty batting average.. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most favorable for pitching of all games today.

Justin Wrobleski is the ultimate regression candidate; his 2.71 ERA is a mirage masked by a fraudulent 4.32 xERA and a bottom-tier 17.8% whiff rate.  Conversely, Jeffrey Springs is dynamically unlucky. His bloated 5.52 ERA hides a much sharper 4.41 xERA and a strong .244 xBA, while his 20.6 % strikeout rate provides a true missing-bat floor. Take the Athletics to +115 tonight. 

 

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the game for LHB batting average.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Geraldo Perdomo will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Landen Roupp in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.. Geraldo Perdomo will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.