MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #5 field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Miguel Vargas will hold the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #5 venue in the game for overall LHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Shane Smith throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Eventually, replacing a six-time Silver Slugger like Soto with Jared Young, Carson Benge or Brett Baty will catch up with the Mets, especially with Francisco Lindor (2 extra base hits in 48 AB) slumping. 

New York has allowed the fourth-fewest runs in MLB and start Freddy Peralta against Arizona, which is averaging just 3.5 runs a game.

Drew Rasmussen’s increased cutter usage is a key reason for his strong start. He’s picked up a whiff rate of 29.4% with the pitch, utilizing it 7% more than last season.

Tuesday he faces a Chicago lineup whose .340 xwOBAcon and .213 xBA are fourth-worst in the bigs.

Yandy Diaz is setting the table for the Rays with a .395 xwOBA and a .489 OBP. As a team, they rank fifth in xBA and wOBA, and sixth in slugging.

They’ll score runs against Javier Assad, making his first start after posting a 4.86 xERA and 4.69 xFIP last season.

 

Tampa Bay has consistently been going over the total this season, even when the opponent hasn’t been contributing.

Monday’s 6-4 win marked the eighth Over in 10 games to start the season and I expect that trend to continue. Assad will likely get punished by the top of the order, especially if Diaz gets on-base in front of Jonathan Aranda.

The Cubs bullpen has a 4.63 xFIP and 5.41 xERA. Tampa Bay has seen its pen far even worse, with a 4.94 xFIP and 6.08 xERA. Both rank in the bottom third, and late runs will push the total north of the number.

 

The Miami Marlins are listed as -122 favorites at home against the Cincinnati Reds, and that number stands out—I make them closer to -155 in this spot. Two key matchup edges drive this play. First, Austin Slater at the top of the lineup is a great fit here. As a right-handed bat, he’s long been effective against left-handed pitching, particularly when it comes to attacking high fastballs—Andrew Abbott’s primary pitch. That gives Miami an immediate advantage at the top of the order. The second is the Sandy Alcantara vs. Elly De La Cruz matchup. De La Cruz brings a high-variance profile with significant strikeout risk, and Alcantara’s mix of a high-velocity sinker and changeup is well-suited to exploit that. He has the tools to consistently disrupt De La Cruz’s timing and limit his impact. When you combine those matchup advantages, this price feels too short for Miami.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 21° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.. Eugenio Suarez has been hot recently, putting up a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) over the past 14 days.

The Paul Skenes tax is alive and well on this Tuesday morning, and we’re fading the Pirates because of it. The Padres are trading as +130 underdogs on the moneyline with Nick Pivetta on the mound, and that number is far too long—I make it closer to +105 in this spot. Skenes is a power pitcher with elite velocity, which is a problem for most lineups, but San Diego is built to handle it. The top of their order looks to ambush fastballs, and velocity doesn’t faze hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Skenes given the Padres’ offensive profile. On the other side, Pivetta’s high-spin fastball, which he locates at the top of the zone, can create real issues for Pittsburgh’s lineup—particularly for hitters like Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz in the middle of the order. When you factor in both matchups, this price feels inflated toward Pittsburgh, making San Diego the value side.

San Diego proved the weather excuse hollow by dropping five runs at PNC Park last night, and Pittsburgh's lineup isn't getting blanked twice. One crooked inning from either side cashes this ticket at no juice, and the number is below the key number seven, which makes this a good bet. 

 

Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet pitched to a sparkling 2.59 ERA last year. He's coming off an ugly start but that was against Houston who crush lefties and have a history of mashing against him. The 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up should bounce back with a better performance at home. Jacob Misiorowski and a strong Milwaukee bullpen will also shut down a Boston lineup that averages just 3.60 runs per game with an OPS of .682. Misiorowski has allowed three runs in 11 frames this season with an impressive .169 xBA. He's in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (40%) and whiff rate (42.2%), while Boston ranks 26th in strikeout rate (27.8%) and dead-last in whiff rate (33.3%).

The 2-8 Red Sox are favored because ace Garrett Crochet is on the mound but the difference in the starters isn't as big as you might think. Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski has allowed just three runs with 18 strikeouts through 11 innings. The analytics indicate those numbers are sustainable with the hard-throwing 24-year-old allowing an xBA of .167. He's in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (40%) and whiff rate (42.2%), while Boston ranks 26th in strikeout rate (27.8%) and last in whiff rate (33.3%). On offense, Milwaukee has a big edge with its lineup third in the majors in OPS (.813) and second in runs per game (6.80). With the Brewers boasting an 8-2 record, they have value as road dogs.

There’s screaming statistical correction coming for St. Louis lefty Matthew Liberatore, and the Washington lineup is set to serve it. Liberatore’s 1.64 ERA through two starts is saddled with a 5.28 xFIP and both his .216 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate are going to take hits tonight. And, while it might be a small sample, I’m still bullish about the Nationals pacing the majors in on-base percentage and ranking third in wOBA across 128 plate appearances against southpaws.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. In MLB, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Cavalli today.. Compared to last season, Alec Burleson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 44.4% to 55.6% this season.

All seven of New York's wins this season have come by two runs or more. Cam Schlittler has been lights out to open the season, surrendering zero earned runs while allowing just three total baserunners and striking out 15 across two road starts. Behind him is a rested bullpen that ranks first in FIP, while the offense has produced five or more runs in five straight games. New York has also handled Aaron Civale well, putting up a 1.095 OPS over 59 combined at-bats. 

I’m a fan of A’s hurler Aaron Civale. His groundball rate won’t stay at over 55% all season but for the moment, I’ll respect it and say that’s the profile you want the most when facing New York. Pairing that with just a 6% barrel rate tells you he limits damage in the air even if he cannot miss bats. The New York Yankees will score but Civale's contact profile keeps balls on the ground.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto relies on his fastball/splitter combination. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. owns the highest OPS against the splitter in the Jays lineup and owns a career 1.000 OPS against him. 

With injuries and ineffectiveness blasting Toronto's rotation, the Blue Jays will need an extended outing from Kevin Gausman, who has cleared 17.5 outs in both starts so far this season.

Tarik Skubal has picked up right where he left off last season, allowing just one earned run through his first two starts (13 innings) this year.

Skubal will dominate again vs. the Twins, who are averaging a meager 1.67 runs in the first five innings and batting just .169 vs. southpaws.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the game's 10th-best home run hitter.. Matt Wallner is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Target Field profiles as the #5 stadium in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Matt Wallner will hold that advantage today.. Since the start of last season, Matt Wallner's 14.5% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 90th percentile among his peers.

Cole Young has made an immediate impact in his second season in the majors, collecting at least one hit in eight of 10 appearances.

Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has dealt with plenty of injuries over the past year and doesn't look up to speed just yet. He carries a bloated 11.42 ERA through two starts while allowing 6+ hits in both outings.

Corey Seager projects as the 6th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast expects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Hitting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Corey Seager will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of the day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the majors.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of the day.

Let’s keep attacking Yusei Kikuchi in a solid hitting environment with Ozzie Albies at +520. He’s already part of a four-player round robin I have, but his solo HR prop at +480 or better still carries +EV based on projections. Albies is expected to hit in the three-hole against a lefty, a split where he’s historically been stronger than vs. right-handers. Kikuchi’s profile is vulnerable to hard-hit fly balls, and Albies has already had success in the matchup, going 3-for-6 with a home run. There’s also upside beyond the starter, as the Los Angeles Angels bullpen has outperformed its underlying numbers, carrying a 4.51 xFIP that ranks near the bottom of the league despite a strong ERA. This sets up as a spot where the Atlanta Braves could generate multiple home runs.

Baldwin has already failed me this year, but of course, he got hot after I bet on him with back-to-back games going deep. He is currently tied for the league lead with five homers. A price north of +500 in Anaheim, with decent hitting conditions, is putting him back in my trust tree. He is a Top-10 hitter in baseball right now who isn't striking out. There are three other Braves who have taken Yusei Kikuchi deep over their careers in Ronald Acuna (+360), Matt Olson (+390), and Ozzie Albies (+520), so there is plenty of info for Baldwin, who handles lefties just as well as righties. This might be a great spot for a two-man Atlanta round robin homer card with the two shortest odds making better than 20/1 odds. That's six combinations at doubles. At 0.15 units per bet, that would be a decent winner at less than a unit risk. 

These are two quality starting pitchers, facing two lineups that have had their fair share of troubles — Philadelphia against lefties and San Francisco in general. The Giants have plated four or fewer runs in nine of their 11 games. 

Although the surface-level statistics may not show it, these are two quality bullpens. The Phillies have the best SIERA in relief (2.69), but a 4.17 ERA, and the Giants have a quality 3.81 SIERA but a grotesque 4.93 ERA.

Both of those bullpen ERAs are due for positive regression, creating value in the Under in the meantime.

Philadelphia has been anemic against left-handed pitching, posting a measly 59 wRC+ and .165 AVG in 112 at-bats. 

Robbie Ray performed admirably at Oracle Park last year (3.50 FIP) and has had plenty of juice in his first two starts (108 Stuff+), so he forecasts for a strong outing. 

Facing Christopher Sanchez is never fun, but he’s down one mph on his fastball and has been hittable (10th percentile average exit velocity, 14th percentile hard-hit rate). For as bad as San Francisco has been against RHP, the lineup is close to league-average against southpaws.