MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 16, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Thu, Apr 16 • 6:10 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Baltimore Orioles logo Cleveland Guardians logo u8.5 (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Orioles righty Shane Baz has surrendered three runs or fewer in 22 of his past 34 starts, and that includes pitching home games at the launching pad known as George M. Steinbrenner Field last year. The Guardians are also countering with rolling lefty Parker Messick, and he's held opposing hitters to a miniscule 28.9% hard-hit rate while allowing just a single run across 17 2/3 innings.

Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles logo BAL (+110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Guardians starter Parker Messick will face a tough test Thursday, with the Orioles ranking third in wOBA against southpaws. The 25-year-old lefty has an unsustainable .227 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate, so while his 3.37 xFIP is still an excellent mark through three starts, the hiccups are coming for Messick and the pendulum is set to swing in the opposite direction. Cleveland also ranks 20th in wOBA against righties, and Baltimore starter Shane Baz has flashed the past two years while allowing three runs or fewer in 22 of his past 34 starts.

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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Houston Astros logo HOU Thu, Apr 16 • 8:10 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Hunter Goodman logo Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Jon Metler image
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst

I think you could make a case for several left-handed bats in the Rockies lineup against Ryan Weiss, but there’s a good chance he doesn’t make it past the third inning—so how many at-bats are they really going to get against him? This sets up as a heavy bullpen day for the Astros, and that’s where Goodman stands out. His pull power plays regardless of whether he’s facing a righty or a lefty. That power is especially valuable at Daikin Park, with the short porch in the Crawford Boxes in left field. Goodman just launched two home runs in Houston the other day, so there’s reason to believe he’s seeing the ball well in this park. His prop is listed at +400, but I make it closer to +290.

Moneyline
Colorado Rockies logo COL (+166)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Jon Metler image
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst

The Colorado Rockies may be using an opener in Juan Mejia for this game, but the Houston Astros are getting far too much respect in the market because of it. The Rockies are trading as a +166 underdog on Pinnacle, while I make them closer to a +135 underdog in this spot. Ryan Weiss is on the mound for Houston, and he’s struggled significantly against left-handed hitters, allowing a .357 average with a 1.009 OPS this season. That’s a major concern against a Rockies lineup that features several lefties at the top, including Mickey Moniak, Edouard Julien, and TJ Rumfield. If those hitters can work the count, Weiss is likely to leave pitches over the heart of the plate that they can attack—especially considering he ranks in just the 7th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, which is not a good sign for him but a great sign for our bet.

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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ San Diego Padres logo SD Thu, Apr 16 • 8:40 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Seattle Mariners logo San Diego Padres logo u8.5 (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Two of the last three meetings have cashed the Under. Castillo's brilliance against this San Diego lineup is hard to ignore, while Buehler has held his own this season. Seattle's track record versus the righty is something to keep in mind, but I don't see them tagging him with a bunch of runs. 

Moneyline
Seattle Mariners logo SEA (-111)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Castillo has held the Padres to a .200 average across 65 at-bats while striking out 23. He’s shut down the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. On the other side, Walker Buehler owns a 4.97 ERA, and Seattle’s lineup is hitting .325 against him across 40 at-bats. Cal Raleigh alone is 5-for-6. 

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