MLB Picks

The Padres rank 10th in road wRC+ the past two weeks (116 wRC+), while ranking eighth with a .179 ISO. Meanwhile, hitters are slugging Nola’s fastball at a ridiculous .904 clip.

Vasquez is going to struggle with the trio of Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Bryce Harper. Against RHP in May, Harper posted a 46.7% HR/FB rate and 190 wRC+, while Schwarber posted a 61.5% pull% and 41% hard-hit rate. 

It goes without saying that if I expect the Guardians to make Schlitter labor some, then I should like a low total going Over. I do, and I'd play this to 8 at +100. On the other side of things, like we've hit on often with the Yankees, giving them free passes is an issue. Joey Cantillo’s 12.7% walk rate is a problem, as it gives a group with patience and power a chance to create traffic. For the most part, you're looking for both teams to score 3 or so runs, and I'm comfortable backing that here.

Elder has allowed just five home runs all season, making this more of a half-unit sprinkle than a full-sized play. Still, Springer has shown encouraging signs lately, recording a hit in 10 of his last 13 games. Last season, he excelled against sinker-heavy pitchers, batting .371 with a .661 expected slugging percentage against the pitch type.

McDonald has not been nearly as tough on left-handed hitters, allowing a .283 average and .358 wOBA. 

The Brewers have an abundance of lefties to throw at McDonald, including Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, and Sal Frelick.

The Giants might only need a couple of runs to push this game Over the total.

Playable to -130.

I'm backing the NRFI in the White Sox vs. Twins matchup, largely because of David Martin's dominance in the first inning. The top-rated pitcher in the Batters-Box season ratings owns a 1.64 first-inning ERA and has held opponents to a .195 batting average through 11 starts. On the other side, Connor Prielipp's first-inning ERA is concerning, but his underlying numbers at home remain strong, including a .167 xBA allowed and a 36.7% strikeout rate over his last 30 hitters faced. With the White Sox struggling against left-handed pitching and striking out at a high rate, this sets up as a strong NRFI spot.

Nick Kurtz enters a strong matchup against Jameson Taillon with his hits, runs, RBI prop priced near even money, which looks undervalued based on underlying trends. He ranks number one on Batters-Box and consistently clears this number in elite ratings, especially on the road where his hit rate approaches 70%. Taillon has struggled with hard contact, barrels, and elevated metrics, particularly against left-handed hitters, allowing heavy damage across multiple advanced stats. Given Kurtz’s consistent production profile and Taillon’s recent struggles, the data supports a strong edge on the over. I would personally take this prop up to -120 tonight.

Yordan Alvarez finds himself in a dream matchup against Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler. The Astros slugger has been scorching hot against right-handed pitching, posting a 64.4% hard-hit rate, 42.9% barrel rate, and 78.6% elevation rate over his last 30 plate appearances. He also owns 100% arsenal coverage against Chandler's pitch mix, according to Batters-Box. Chandler has struggled to keep left-handed hitters in the yard, allowing plenty of hard contact and fly balls while surrendering a .510 xSLG and .365 xwOBA. With Chandler throwing fastballs nearly 54% of the time, Alvarez is in prime position to do damage tonight.

He has held opponents scoreless in three of his last four starts and allowed only 13 hits during that stretch. It’ll be difficult for the Mets offense to generate much

The Mariners have plated an average of 3.3 runs per game over their last 15 in Seattle, where it is generally harder for them to score.

Play the Under to -130.