It's the beginning of a new home run week, and with a cold snap hitting the league, finding the best spots for dingers and MLB player props is key today if we're going to turn a profit.
See why I like Junior Caminero in a controlled environment to cap off our home run props alongside Jordan Walker and Kyle Tucker.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, April 20.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jordan Walker |
+680 |
 Kyle Tucker |
+410 |
 Junior Caminero |
+410 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +18198 |
Jordan Walker (+680)
I thought +540 was a great HR price on St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker last Friday. This is an insane number for a hitter with elite metrics and one of the fastest swings in all of baseball.
The cold has crept in on a small Monday slate, and getting one of this year’s best HR bats at anything better than +400 in a controlled environment is a +EV gift to start the week. Walker has also more than doubled his barrel rate this year, jumping from 11.2% to 24%.
The matchup favors him against Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer's shaky command. Per Covers projections powered by THE BAT, “Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s sixth-shallowest CF fences today.”
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Cardinals.TV
Kyle Tucker (+410)
Jose Quintana has yet to pitch at Coors Field this year, but a matchup vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in decent hitting conditions isn’t one the veteran lefty is likely looking forward to. This could get ugly, and L.A. should see plenty of innings against a Colorado Rockies bullpen that has been punching above its weight and may be without its three best arms today.
Bettors don’t usually get elite prices at Coors, but I’ll take the best HR park on the slate when narrowing down a small card. The value leans to left-handed bats, as Quintana isn’t tough on lefties, and books tend to shade those matchups.
Kyle Tucker at +410 is the target. He’s already gone deep at Coors in this series, handles lefties well, and carries the best price among the top-tier bats in the L.A. lineup. THE BAT grades him as a Top-15 hitter in baseball.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SportsNet LA
Junior Caminero (+410)
You can’t go wrong with Junior Caminero at +400 or better, and today’s +410 price is making the card.
It’s an indoor environment that ranks as a Top-10 park for home runs to left field, and Caminero sits in the Top 5% for pulled fly balls.
It’s a great setting for a hitter with the second-fastest swing in MLB.
Chase Burns can miss bats, but he can also struggle with command and give up the long ball with a decent fly-ball rate. The Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is also showing signs that its early success could regress. The fair price here is around +370.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Rays.TV
- HR picks: 5-33, -2.4 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Jordan Walker |
Bet Now +18198 |
| Kyle Tucker |
|
| Junior Caminero |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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