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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 17, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.66 |
-130 
|
o8.5 -135 
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.50 |
+123 
|
u9.5 -140 
|
+1.5 -135 
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Kyle Harrison o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+1400)
o4.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.89 |
-159
|
o9.5 -117 
|
-1.5 -103
|
|
4.90 |
+145 
|
u10.0 -110
|
+1.5 -109
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Singers last 8 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 4-1 in Singers last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Top Projection
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+151)
o0.5+151
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.71 |
+235
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 +102
|
|
4.91 |
-270
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 -114
|
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in Rasmussens last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts on fieldturf.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
o0.5+500
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7.22 |
-158
|
o10.5 -125
|
-1.5 -103
|
|
5.77 |
+144
|
u11.5 -136
|
+1.5 -110 
|
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 5-0-1 in Gordons last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
o1.5+132
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
+126
|
o8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -162
|
|
4.96 |
-145
|
u9.0 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
Kansas City
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 overall.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.07 |
+121
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.14 |
-132
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +155
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 4-0 in McLeans last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in McLeans last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+201
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.07 |
+112
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
3.91 |
-125
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +172
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 on grass.
- Over is 41-12 in White Sox last 53 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115)
o1.5-105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
-134
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.07 |
+120
|
u8.5 -117
|
+1.5 -143
|
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-2 in Rangers last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.10 |
-129
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.85 |
+114
|
u7.5 -104
|
+1.5 -156
|
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a road underdog.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games.
- Under is 15-3 in Angels last 18 vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
MIL
@
PIT
Thu, Sep 17 • 12:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as MLB's 17th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Extreme groundball bats like Oneil Cruz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.. Oneil Cruz will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Brice Turang o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-140)
Projection 2.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Brice Turang is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Khristian Curtis throws from, Brice Turang will have an advantage in today's game.
LAD
@
CIN
Thu, Sep 17 • 12:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Max Muncy o1.5 Total Bases (+109)
Projection 1.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #9 ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 90°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.
Total Bases
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+167)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
JJ Bleday is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 90°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. JJ Bleday will hold the platoon advantage over Tyler Glasnow in today's game.
ATH
@
TB
Thu, Sep 17 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Zack Gelof is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Tropicana Field grades out as the #1 field in the game for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Total Bases
Yandy Diaz o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Tropicana Field grades out as the #1 field in the game for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yandy Diaz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeffrey Springs in today's matchup.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
SD
@
COL
Thu, Sep 17 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Xander Bogaerts o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.17
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Bats such as Xander Bogaerts with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Gordon who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total RBIs (+182)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 field in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Gordon today.
PHI
@
NYM
Thu, Sep 17 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks.. The weather report calls for the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.
Total RBIs
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 17th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trea Turner is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The weather report calls for the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Trea Turner hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game.
DET
@
CHW
Thu, Sep 17 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Tommy Pham u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the most suitable for pitching of the day.. Typically, batters like Tommy Pham who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez.
Strikeouts Thrown
Erick Fedde o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+118)
Projection 3.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (John Peck, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the most suitable for pitching of the day.. Erick Fedde will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats in all categories.. Erick Fedde has utilized his slider 11.9% more often this year (37.2%) than he did last season (25.3%).. Erick Fedde's 93.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 94th percentile out of all SPs.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-124)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 55%, I'm definitely buying the Boston Red Sox on Polymarket, as I price them closer to a 60% favorite. That's a much larger edge than we typically see in the market. Sonny Gray has been an ace for the Red Sox this season, and this matchup against the Rangers sets up very well for him. Texas has some free swingers in the lineup, such as Josh Jung and Jake Burger, who are always looking to pull the ball. Gray carves up aggressive hitters by expanding the zone and forcing them to chase breaking balls off the plate. It's not like I expect the left-handed bats to get much going either. Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager will have to deal with Gray's two-seamer running in on their hands, and neither hitter profiles particularly well against Gray.
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
MIN
@
LAA
Thu, Sep 17 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.
Total RBIs
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Josh Lowe will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
