MLB Picks

Gray has held the Tigers’ lineup to a .141 average across 71 at-bats, and he’s struck out 34. The likes of Javier Baez, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Gleyber Torres have not been able to touch Gray. Detroit ranks 12th in team strikeouts, and they’re striking out even more on the road.

The slugger just went deep in three straight games over the weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals. While Alvarez only has one at-bat against Slade Cecconi, the right-hander has struggled this season with the long ball, giving up three of them in only four starts. Alvarez is obviously red-hot, and five of his bombs have come off righties.

I thought +540 was a great HR price on Jordan Walker last Friday. This is an insane number for a hitter with elite metrics and one of the fastest swings in all of baseball. The cold has crept in on a small Monday slate, and getting one of this year’s best HR bats at anything better than +400 in a controlled environment is a +EV gift to start the week. Walker has also more than doubled his barrel rate this year, jumping from 11.2% to 24%. The matchup favors him against Max Meyer and his shaky command. Per Covers projections powered by THE BAT, “Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.”

The Tampa Bay Rays are trading at -115 on the moneyline at Bet99, and we have a solid edge to exploit, as I price them closer to a -135 favorite. I like the Rays in this matchup because they can apply significant pressure on the basepaths against Rhett Lowder, who uses an up-tempo windup and has shown command issues when dealing with baserunners. Tampa Bay can amplify that pressure with speed threats like Chandler Simpson, Cedric Mullins, and Richie Palacios—all left-handed bats facing the right-handed Lowder. If they’re able to disrupt his rhythm with stolen base attempts, it should create opportunities for the middle of the lineup, with players like Junior Caminero standing to benefit.

Seth Lugo has a great shot at continuing his hot start to the season against a Baltimore lineup that sees a sharp drop-off on the road, with its OPS falling from .756 at home to a near league-worst .610 away. On the other side, Kyle Bradish is being rocked for a lot of hard contact, contributing to Baltimore losses in three of his four outings. With Kansas City back home after a road-heavy stretch, this sets up as a chance to get on-track.

Jose Quintana has been brutal through two starts, recording twice as many walks (8) as strikeouts (3). The veteran ranks in the first percentile in xERA (8.88) and K rate (8.1%) and the second percentile in barrel rate (19.2%). The Dodgers have been the best team in the league against left-handed pitching (140 wRC+) and should positively feast at Coors Field. Justin Wrobleski has been supremely effective, allowing a single earned run on four hits in his last 13 IP. He should limit a Rockies lineup that struggles against LHP (68 wRC+ and 0.2 BB/K). 

Cease has cashed the over in Ks in two of his four appearances, and he even struck out eight Los Angeles Dodgers on April 8. Tonight’s matchup is a clear opportunity for him to strike out lots of hitters. The Jays face the LA Angels, who rank second-last in the Majors in strikeouts with 9.70 per game. Cease has faced their lineup 86 times, and he’s struck out 34.