MLB Picks

Both Miami starter Sandy Alcantara and Pittsburgh righty Braxton Ashcraft have been sensational in this market this season and have combined to pitch 23 scoreless opening frames across 27 starts. Additionally, Alcantara's first-inning numbers (5.14 ERA with a .758 OPS allowed) are skewed because all eight runs he’s surrendered were across just three games. Ashcraft, meanwhile, checks in with an absolutely elite .169 batting average and .414 OPS allowed in the opening frame across his 21 career starts.

Mariners righty Bryce Miller has spun four consecutive scoreless first frames to start his 2026 campaign, and he also held opposing hitters to a modest .601 OPS across 18 opening innings last season. Seattle is in tough against Washington righty Zack Littell, too. He’s also fired four consecutive scoreless opening innings and has held opposing hitters to a lower .479 OPS across nine 2026 starts. Additionally, Littell has settled into a sterling groove with an overall 3.47 FIP across his past seven outings.

I have never backed Samuel Basallo before, but this matchup is too good to ignore. The Orioles' young slugger draws Padres right hander Griffin Canning, who owns the fourth worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box. Left-handed hitters have crushed Canning this season, producing elite hard contact, barrel, and expected batting metrics. Basallo matches up well against Canning's pitch mix, boasting a 79.1% arsenal coverage rating. He has also been swinging a hot bat against righties lately, posting a 1.036 OPS and .423 wOBA over his last 30 plate appearances. The matchup sets up perfectly for Basallo to do damage tonight.

If Jack Flaherty is going to have any type of success on the mound, he needs a matchup against an aggressive lineup of right-handed hitters that chases bad pitches and strikes out at a high rate. That is the complete opposite of what he'll see from the Guardians, who can effectively stack the lineup with nine left-handed bats thanks to their collection of switch hitters. Not only does that diminish the effectiveness of Flaherty's slider as a put-away pitch, but the Guardians' lineup is built around high-contact hitters who work counts, foul off pitches, and consistently put the ball in play. That's a nightmare scenario for Flaherty, who is sporting a 4.74 BB/9 this season. The Guardians are trading as -120 favorites on the moneyline, but I price them closer to -145 in this spot.

The Kansas City Royals should be the favorites in this matchup against the Houston Astros, which is why I'm hitting the button on the +101 price. I make the Royals closer to a -115 favorite in this spot. Tatsuya Imai's 6.03 BB/9 is a major concern, and those free passes provide a huge boost for a Royals offense that can sometimes struggle to score runs and generate power. Walks allow Kansas City to create offense through its speed, aggressive baserunning, and contact-oriented approach. The Royals' speed on the bases, led by Bobby Witt Jr., should also put pressure on Imai and potentially force him to lean more heavily on his fastball rather than his secondary pitches. If that happens, it could create opportunities for Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino to sit on fastballs and drive the ball with authority.

Yandy Díaz is one of my favorite home run targets on the board tonight. The Rays slugger has been scorching left handed pitching, posting a .400 batting average, .720 slugging percentage, 1.187 OPS, and 221 wRC+ over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws. He has also generated a 56.5% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate during that stretch. Díaz draws Angels left hander Sam Aldegheri, who has surrendered a 61.9% fly-ball rate and 19% line-drive rate to right handed hitters this season. Add in Díaz's elite 94.7% arsenal coverage rating on Batters-Box, and the ingredients are there for a long ball.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.