MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 1, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Wed, Jul 1 • 12:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Taylor Ward logo
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Taylor Ward will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Noah Schultz today... and the cherry on top, Schultz has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
Kyle Teel logo
Kyle Teel o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kyle Teel's BABIP talent is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Teel is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest RF fences among all stadiums.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Wed, Jul 1 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Alejandro Osuna logo
Alejandro Osuna o0.5 Total RBIs (+340)
Projection 0.33
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Alejandro Osuna has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. In the past two weeks, Alejandro Osuna's 59.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.6%.. Using Statcast metrics, Alejandro Osuna grades out in the 79th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .332.
Total RBIs
Gabriel Arias logo
Gabriel Arias o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
Projection 0.37
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in the majors for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Gabriel Arias will hold the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore today.. Gabriel Arias has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Washington Nationals logo WAS @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
CJ Abrams logo
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.82
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Fenway Park projects as the #4 ballpark in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams logo
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Fenway Park projects as the #4 ballpark in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
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Detroit Tigers logo DET @ New York Yankees logo NYY Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Riley Greene logo
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+114)
Projection 1.95
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Yankee Stadium has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Given Will Warren's large platoon split, Riley Greene will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Riley Greene has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.8-mph average.
Total Bases
Cody Bellinger logo
Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases (+107)
Projection 1.97
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Yankee Stadium has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Batting from the opposite that Troy Melton throws from, Cody Bellinger will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Cody Bellinger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Wed, Jul 1 • 2:20 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Dansby Swanson logo
Dansby Swanson o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 92°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for hitters.. Dansby Swanson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki logo
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.14
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 92°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for hitters.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Wed, Jul 1 • 3:07 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
3 LEG PARLAY
Toronto Blue Jays logo
TOR
Moneyline
Kazuma Okamoto profile picture
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Nathan Lukes profile picture
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Bet now
Pick made: 21 minutes ago
Ethan Diamandas image
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst

At +475, this three-leg same-game parlay backs Okamoto over 1.5 total bases, Lukes to record a hit after doing so in three of his past five games and drawing a favourable matchup with Peralta, and the Blue Jays moneyline, as Toronto looks to build on last season’s success and its current momentum in the Canada Day rubber match.

Total Bases
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Bases (-175)
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
Ethan Diamandas image
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst

Though the price is shorter than ideal, Okamoto is Toronto’s best home run bet for a quiet offense, as his late-game power, Canada Day setting, and strong track record against Freddy Peralta’s fastball make him well positioned for a big night.

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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Wed, Jul 1 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Trea Turner logo
Trea Turner o1.5 Total Bases (+142)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average talent, Trea Turner is projected as the 20th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trea Turner is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for home runs.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for bats.
Total RBIs
Brandon Lowe logo
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+166)
Projection 0.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for home runs.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for bats.
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Wed, Jul 1 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Austin Riley logo
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run ability.. The #10 venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Austin Riley will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.1°, Austin Riley has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 36.3° figure in the last 7 days.
Total Bases
Ha-Seong Kim logo
Ha-Seong Kim o1.5 Total Bases (+260)
Projection 1.2
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #10 venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Ha-seong Kim hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Ha-seong Kim will hold that advantage in today's game.. Ha-seong Kim's launch angle lately (38° in the past week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 16° seasonal figure.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Wed, Jul 1 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jac Caglianone logo
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jac Caglianone in the 90th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jac Caglianone is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #5 stadium in the league for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup projects the 5th-lowest temperature of all games on the slate today at 91°.
Total RBIs
Cedric Mullins logo
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+149)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #5 stadium in the league for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup projects the 5th-lowest temperature of all games on the slate today at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14.6-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo in today's matchup.
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Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Houston Astros logo HOU Wed, Jul 1 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Christian Walker logo
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+141)
Projection 1.66
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The 2nd-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team playing today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Kody Clemens logo
Kody Clemens o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Kody Clemens ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. Kody Clemens will have the handedness advantage over Tatsuya Imai in today's game... and even better, Imai has a large platoon split.. Kody Clemens has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 100-mph in the last week.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Wed, Jul 1 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz logo
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The #9 park in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Among all stadiums, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez logo
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.59
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #9 park in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in American Family Field.. Among all stadiums, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. This contest is projected to have the 10th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Wed, Jul 1 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar logo
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+162)
Projection 1.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best stadium in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Ezequiel Tovar will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ezequiel Tovar's true offensive talent to be a .294, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 disparity between that mark and his actual .256 wOBA.. By putting up a .271 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ezequiel Tovar is ranked in the 77th percentile.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez logo
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (-119)
Projection 2.16
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 84th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best stadium in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Heriberto Hernandez will have an edge in today's matchup.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Projection 2.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The #2 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.
Total Bases
Nick Kurtz logo
Nick Kurtz o1.5 Total Bases (+128)
Projection 2.02
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Nick Kurtz ranks as the 8th-best hitter in the league.. Nick Kurtz is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #2 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
3 Computer Picks
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Nolan Arenado logo
Nolan Arenado o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105)
Projection 1.89
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #2 park in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today.. In the past 7 days, Nolan Arenado's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.3% up to 14.3%.
Total RBIs
Max Kepler logo
Max Kepler o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.5
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Chase Field projects as the #6 ballpark in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Considering Trevor McDonald's large platoon split, Max Kepler will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today's game.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.332) implies that Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .297 actual wOBA.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Brice Turang logo
Brice Turang o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.52
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Brice Turang is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Brice Turang will have an edge today.. Brice Turang has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last season's 94-mph average.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson logo
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
Projection 0.56
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Sproat throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

View 16 Picks
Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 9 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 19 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 12 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
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Pick made: 12 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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