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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
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Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 24, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.97 |
+136 
|
o6.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -170 
|
|
4.31 |
-155 
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150 
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Leahys last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Kyle Leahy u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-155)
u3.5-148
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.58 |
-125
|
o8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.92 |
+112 
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Royals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.31 |
+176
|
o7.0 -157
|
+2.5 -250
|
|
4.13 |
-200
|
u7.5 -108
|
-2.5 +185
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cubs last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Pete Crow-Armstrong u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
u0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.73 |
+112
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -198
|
|
4.48 |
-129
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +171
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+177)
o0.5+177
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.41 |
-185
|
o10.0 -105
|
-1.5 -112
|
|
4.91 |
+163
|
u10.5 -117
|
+1.5 +100
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 9-0 in Rodriguezs last 9 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
o0.5+146
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.37 |
+100
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -205
|
|
4.76 |
-115
|
u8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +165
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 8-1-1 in Brewers last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.64 |
+120
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -186
|
|
4.42 |
-135 
|
u7.5 -117
|
-1.5 +165
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Daniel Espino o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-130)
o1.5-130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.81 |
+130
|
o6.5 -110
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.02 |
-148
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +160
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 overall.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+185
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
5.34 |
-210
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +108
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0-1 in Singers last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+278)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.33 |
+169
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.35 |
-195
|
u7.5 -127
|
-1.5 +120
|
LA Angels
- Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 road games.
- Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Angels last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Angels last 5 vs. American League West.
Seattle
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 on grass.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Mariners last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.68 |
-159
|
o11.0 -115
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.37 |
+140
|
u11.5 -125
|
+1.5 -112
|
Houston
- Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 road games.
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 11-1 in last 12 vs. American League West.
Top Projection
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5+143
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.05 |
+150
|
o7.5 -103
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
4.87 |
-173
|
u7.5 -109
|
-1.5 +130
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Padres are 5-0 in Pivettas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 on grass.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Dodgers last 8 home games.
Top Projection
Will Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+171
STL
@
PIT
Thu, Sep 24 • 12:35 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 18th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. PNC Park ranks as the #3 park in the league for LHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases (+158)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. PNC Park ranks as the #7 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand today.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams playing today.
CHW
@
KC
Thu, Sep 24 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Kauffman Stadium as the 6th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Salvador Perez will hold that advantage today.
Total Home Runs
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Projection 0.2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 5th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage today.
MIA
@
CHC
Thu, Sep 24 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Hits
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 14th-most favorable for pitching on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the best of the day for mound aces.. Tyler Phillips will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dansby Swanson in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+163)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Wrigley Field has the 9th-smallest outfield in the league — generally good for homers.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's game.
NYM
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 24 • 2:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Carson Benge is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 117° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Considering Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Carson Benge will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 13th-best batter in the majors.. Corey Seager is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 117° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Corey Seager will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
AZ
@
COL
Thu, Sep 24 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Pavin Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+166)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pavin Smith is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Gordon throws from, Pavin Smith will have an edge today.
Total Bases
Pavin Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+151)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Pavin Smith is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Gordon throws from, Pavin Smith will have an edge today.
MIL
@
PHI
Thu, Sep 24 • 6:05 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Bryse Wilson o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-185)
Projection 3.02
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dan Merzel profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be umping in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park projects as the #10 field in MLB for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 12th-best pitching conditions on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers.
Total RBIs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryce Harper projects as the 9th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The #9 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Colton Gordon will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Harper today.. Bryce Harper has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
CLE
@
BOS
Thu, Sep 24 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jarren Duran o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200)
Projection 0.11
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Jarren Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Bibee in today's game.. Jarren Duran has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today.. Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. The #3 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park.. Trevor Story will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
TB
@
NYY
Thu, Sep 24 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Victor Mesa Jr. u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Victor Mesa Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium grades out as the #25 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 13th-most suitable for pitching of all games today.. Victor Mesa Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+295)
Projection 1.17
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Cedric Mullins will have the handedness advantage against Cam Schlittler today.. Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
CIN
@
ATL
Thu, Sep 24 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Matt McLain o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Projection 0.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Matt McLain ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 77%.. Matt McLain hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Home Runs
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+610)
Projection 0.18
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Eugenio Suarez projects as the 17th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 77%.
LAA
@
SEA
Thu, Sep 24 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
SEA (-204)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo has dominated Angels hitters in the past, limiting them to a .190 batting average and .442 OPS. Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez's struggles have continued, as he owns a 5.58 xERA and a hard-hit rate that ranks in the fourth percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Seattle is playable on the ML to -220.
Total Bases
Josh Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
Projection 1.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the most humid conditions on the slate today at 86%.. Josh Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Woo has a large platoon split.. Josh Lowe has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
HOU
@
ATH
Thu, Sep 24 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.23
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #1 stadium in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°.
Total Home Runs
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total Home Runs (+531)
Projection 0.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Lawrence Butler is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Peter Lambert throws from, Lawrence Butler will have an edge today.
SD
@
LAD
Thu, Sep 24 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
SD (+155)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
I'll back the San Diego Padres at 39%, as there's an edge at that price. I make them closer to a 44% underdog in this matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have already clinched a bye and are always focused on postseason baseball, so there's little incentive to push their key players in a game like this. Tyler Glasnow is an important piece of their potential World Series run, but given his history of durability issues, I don't expect to see a high pitch count from him on Thursday. Dave Roberts should be cautious with his workload. The Padres, meanwhile, are locked in a three-way battle for positioning in the Wild Card round and should be approaching this game with a much greater sense of urgency. I expect San Diego to be aggressive with its high-leverage relievers, which gives the Padres an edge in a game where the Dodgers have less to play for.
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 field in the game for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. In MLB, Dodger Stadium's centerfield dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. On average, the fence height at Dodger Stadium is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
