MLB Picks

I'm not getting next-day theoried today with Yandy Díaz, who I'm getting at a better number than yesterday and is still grading as +EV, per the projections at Covers. Over the last two weeks, he has been one of the best bats in baseball, ranking seventh in slugging and third in BlastContact%. He’s ripping extra-base hits right now with six over his last five games and gets a great matchup in a favorable park today. Oriole Park grades as the No. 4 home run environment on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and Shane Baz is a strong target for dingers. The Baltimore right-hander just saw this Tampa lineup in his last start, so the familiarity edge shifts to the hitters in today’s matchup. He has allowed a home run in seven of his last starts and ranks in the bottom 50 among starters in BlastContact% and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days. This is a buy to +600.

Yesterday at Sutter Health Park, bettors saw five home runs, and that kind of output could show up again today with Ballpark Pal grading it as the best park on the slate for both home runs and run scoring. Luis Severino has struggled to navigate the park this season, carrying a 5.55 ERA and 2.2 HR/9 at home compared to just 0.5 HR/9 on the road. Seattle starter Emerson Hancock also brings some red flags. He ranks in the bottom 20 among qualified starters in HR/FB rate, and his xERA suggests his current numbers could be headed in the wrong direction after posting an ERA near 5.00 last season compared to this year’s 3.07 mark. THE BAT, still the best projection model in the industry, has this as the highest-scoring game on the slate with 11.23 projected runs and a fair price of -188 on Over 9.5, making it one of the best +EV sides on the board today.

The Diamondbacks have been tearing the cover off the ball, ranking second in OPS over the last two weeks, and they just hung six runs over five innings on Giants SP Tyler Mahle last week. San Fran is a modest 19th in OPS vs. lefties, and they'll take on Eduardo Rodriguez (2.24 ERA) on Tuesday night.

Both teams are trending to the Under as the Rockies are 13-17 O/U on the road and the Dodgers are 10-16 O/U at home. Kyle Freeland is better away from Coors (13.6 K-BB%), while the Dodgers can use Eric Lauer for a few innings against an impotent lineup against LHP before relying on a stingy bullpen (2.46 FIP this month).

I'm on the market here and wouldn't play this below 7, but at a plus-money price with how the Yankees are swinging lately, I'm inclined to lean towards the Under. The Yankees' offense, one of the best in the sport for long stretches over the past three years, has really struggled lately. It's been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its past 14 games. It should be ugly conditions in Yankee Stadium today, add in Ryan Weathers' strikeout rate, which ranks in the 97th percentile of baseball, and both offenses should stay fairly quiet.