MLB Picks

There is a little juice here, but Chris Bassitt projects for a full leash on extra rest and 4.32 Ks today against his former team. He just faced the Jays two starts ago and struck out five on the road on a 95-pitch leash with the same total and a similar price. The Jays are on the ropes, and the doubleheader today could mean an easier lineup to navigate, which could be without Vladimir Guerrero. Bassitt has gone Over this total in six straight games and hit six Ks in half of those. If the juice drops even more, I'd suggest hitting his 5+ Ks at plus money or adding his Over 1.5 walks to beef up those odds.

This is the best +EV strikeout prop, per THE BAT, with a fair price of -150. Connor Prielipp gets to rack up Ks against an afternoon Giants lineup that is striking out at a 25% clip this month. Zebby Matthews had nine Ks against this lineup on Monday with a total of 4.5, and Taj Bradley sat down six over six three-hit innings yesterday. The Minnesota starter is coming off seven scoreless innings on 92 pitches with eight Ks. He has double-digit punchout potential today and is better than a K-per-inning pitcher with a 90-plus-pitch leash. Since the break, he has been held to fewer than five Ks just once across 10 starts. His floor is solid, and the ceiling today is high.

Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Jose Mesa is in a great spot to record a hit against Yankees starter Gerrit Cole. Mesa carries an elite rating on Batters-Box and is crushing over 85% of Cole’s pitch mix. He has been on fire against right-handed pitching, batting .407 with a .852 SLG and 1.319 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances. Cole has struggled against left-handed hitters, who own a .408 xBA, .630 xSLG and .353 xwOBA over his last 60 batters faced. At this price, we just need Mesa to do the bare minimum and record one hit.

Sonny Gray really likes to mix it up on the mound but the two pitches he throws more than 20% of the time are fastballs and curveballs.

That sets up well for Chase DeLauter, who has teed off on that combination over his last 25 games.

He is sporting a .519 average with a .444 ISO, 16.7 barrel rate, and near 97 mile per hour average exit velocity.

Sure, I’ll back Chris Sale and his 1.66 home ERA against a team that can’t hit lefties. The Reds rank 28th in OPS vs LHP over the last two weeks, while Atlanta is 10-3 in Sale’s home starts and should be eager to bounce back after losing yesterday. Andrew Abbott has been obliterated for 23 earned runs across his last four road starts. Cincinnati's bullpen offers little relief, ranking dead last in ERA (6.04) over the last two weeks.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has a great opportunity to go over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at a very appealing price. The future NL MVP has gone over this prop 56.25% of the time when owning an elite Batters-Box rating this season, while recording a double 27% of the time and a home run 31.2% of the time. He draws Marlins right-hander Ryan Gusto, who has struggled against left-handed hitters recently. Over his last three games, lefties have posted a near-52% hard-hit rate and 22% barrel rate against Gusto. Crow-Armstrong has also posted a .667 SLG and .378 ISO over his last 10 games.

Let's start things off with a mispriced Juan Soto bomb at 5.1x, where the fair value is closer to 3.5x. The Rangers are likely to start Cody Bradford, who was demoted to a bulk-relief role after giving up 11 runs in three starts and 11-plus innings. The Rangers are desperate, sitting three games out of the Wild Card spot, and pushing that bullpen, combined with this pressure, is a good spot for Soto, who has seven hits over his last 19 plate appearances. The value is coming from the lefty-vs-lefty matchup, but Bradford's leash is not long. Sixty-five pitches could be in the cards, and maybe even fewer if he stumbles. It's an indoor game with the thermostat falling quickly.

Here is another 5.1x home run that should have a fair value of 3.5x at Coors Field against the worst HR/9 pitcher on the slate. Carroll has been demoted to the fifth spot in the lineup due to a September slump, but he still has three dingers and an .826 OPS over his last 10 games. If that's a slump, I'm buying the dip. The wind is blowing out to his pull side, and a matchup against Mason Adams is a great thing at this price. Adams has allowed a homer in each of his five starts and has given up six homers in 23 innings, with a 3.0 HR/9 and 9.00 ERA at Coors. I would love three plate appearances against Mason, who lefties are hitting .341 against.

It is very tough to see it being a Yoshinobu Yamamoto Day and want to back the San Diego Padres in this spot. The Padres are sending out left-hander Robbie Ray, who owns an 8.78 ERA, 5.43 xERA and 1.65 WHIP over his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bats are gearing up for October, posting a 170 wRC+, .411 wOBA and .943 OPS over their last six games. With Yamamoto always being lights-out when he takes the mound, I’m having a tough time fading the Monstars of L.A. and will back the Dodgers to roll.

Alvarez sports a third-ranked .311 ISO against right-handed pitchers among qualified hitters and has already homered off Seattle starter George Kirby earlier this season. Additionally, Kirby has allowed a massive 43.2% squared-up contact rate and 18.6% blast-contact rate to left-handed hitters during an active seven-start slump.