MLB Picks

I'm not getting next-day theoried today with Yandy Díaz, who I'm getting at a better number than yesterday and is still grading as +EV, per the projections at Covers. Over the last two weeks, he has been one of the best bats in baseball, ranking seventh in slugging and third in BlastContact%. He’s ripping extra-base hits right now with six over his last five games and gets a great matchup in a favorable park today. Oriole Park grades as the No. 4 home run environment on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and Shane Baz is a strong target for dingers. The Baltimore right-hander just saw this Tampa lineup in his last start, so the familiarity edge shifts to the hitters in today’s matchup. He has allowed a home run in seven of his last starts and ranks in the bottom 50 among starters in BlastContact% and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days. This is a buy to +600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. George Springer is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. George Springer will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Sal Stewart is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Sal Stewart will have the handedness advantage against David Peterson in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Kauffman Stadium as the 10th-best field in the majors for run-scoring.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 82°.. The Kansas City Royals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jazz Chisholm Jr. can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. American Family Field ranks as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Brooks Lee is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brooks Lee in today's matchup.. Over the last week, Brooks Lee's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.2%.. Despite posting a .308 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brooks Lee has been very fortunate given the .024 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .284.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Brandon Nimmo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jason Alexander in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Brandon Nimmo will hold that advantage in today's game.

Sutter Health Park is once again grading as the best home run environment on the slate today, per Ballpark Pal. The wind is blowing out, and the pitching matchup is better than it may look at first glance, as Luis Severino has been hit hard there and the splits back it up. The Athletics starter owns a 2.2 HR/9 in Sacramento compared to just 0.94 HR/9 on the road. Randy Arozarena at +600 is my target with a fair price of +530, per the projections at Covers. The right-handed hitter ranks 10th in slugging and 15th in BlastContact% over the last 14 days and is one of just six hitters inside the Top 15 in both categories during that stretch.

Bryce Harper projects as the 9th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest fences in the majors.. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge in today's matchup.

The Diamondbacks have been tearing the cover off the ball, ranking second in OPS over the last two weeks, and they just hung six runs over five innings on Giants SP Tyler Mahle last week. San Fran is a modest 19th in OPS vs. lefties, and they'll take on Eduardo Rodriguez (2.24 ERA) on Tuesday night.

I'm on the market here and wouldn't play this below 7, but at a plus-money price with how the Yankees are swinging lately, I'm inclined to lean towards the Under. The Yankees' offense, one of the best in the sport for long stretches over the past three years, has really struggled lately. It's been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its past 14 games. It should be ugly conditions in Yankee Stadium today, add in Ryan Weathers' strikeout rate, which ranks in the 97th percentile of baseball, and both offenses should stay fairly quiet.