MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Thu, May 21 • 1:10 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Cleveland Guardians logo Detroit Tigers logo u7.5 (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Tigers starter Casey Mize has a stingy 2.43 ERA and ranks in the 85th percentile in xBA (.211).

Detroit can’t score, Mize won’t give up a ton, and both teams have bullpens with a sub-4.00 ERA. 

Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians logo CLE (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

The Tigers are missing three key players (Torres, Baez, Carpenter) and have fallen off a cliff, going 2-13 over their last 15 while scoring just 2.47 runs per game over that span.

The Guardians are hot with eight wins in their last nine and rank second in runs as well as third in OBP among all teams this month.

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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, May 21 • 1:15 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Pittsburgh Pirates logo St. Louis Cardinals logo o7.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 31 minutes ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

The Over has hit in four of the last five meetings between these clubs, and both pitchers have vulnerabilities. The Cardinals have previously hit Ashcraft well, while May is allowing hard contact at a career-worst rate. With Pittsburgh scoring 13 runs in the last two games and St. Louis’ bullpen posting a 4.53 ERA, runs should come from both sides.

Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 32 minutes ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Pittsburgh has all the momentum after a dominant 7-0 win on Wednesday, and Braxton Ashcraft continues to impress with a strong 2.16 road ERA. While Dustin May has struggled against the Pirates lineup and owns a shaky 4.50 home ERA, Pittsburgh’s offense is producing nearly five runs per game and should stay hot in the series finale.

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New York Mets logo NYM @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Thu, May 21 • 4:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 8 Computer Picks
Total
New York Mets logo Washington Nationals logo u8.5 (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Let’s hammer the getaway Under with the New York Mets heading to Miami on Friday and the Washington Nationals traveling to Atlanta tonight. The weather is working in the Under’s favor with 10-mph winds blowing in, 60-degree temperatures, and some projected rain in the mix. Neither team is likely eager to grind through a getaway-day game, and we could see some quick at-bats with both clubs having all of their high-leverage bullpen arms available. THE BAT also backs the Under with a fair price of -153 and just 7.56 projected runs.

Total Hits
Keibert Ruiz logo
Keibert Ruiz u0.5 Total Hits (+138)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.. 28% of the time that Keibert Ruiz has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the worst ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Thu, May 21 • 6:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-140)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Aisha Quiñones image
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor

Spencer Strider has consistently handled the Miami Marlins, going 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 25 strikeouts over five career appearances. With the Atlanta Braves well ahead of their NL East rival, don’t expect him to ease up now.

Total Hits
Ozzie Albies logo
Ozzie Albies u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.88
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 6th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which tends to lead to worse offense.. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will bat from his worse side (0) today against Sandy Alcantara. Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-deepest RF fences today.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ozzie Albies in today's game.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ New York Yankees logo NYY Thu, May 21 • 7:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-160)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Aisha Quiñones image
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor

Carlos Rodón has some redemption on his mind after a shaky, costly return in the Subway Series for the New York Yankees. As they wrap up their current series against an AL East rival, he’ll need to capitalize on a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that’s hitting just .225 against left-handers this season. Rodón has a 2-3 record with an ERA of 4.72 and 54 strikeouts in 9 appearances against the Blue Jays in his career, but this Toronto team looks like a shell of themselves to start the season. Take the home team to best the Jays as Rodón shakes off the rust and slowly, but surely finds his rhythm again on the mound.

Total Hits
Kazuma Okamoto logo
Kazuma Okamoto u0.5 Total Hits (+150)
Projection 0.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the worst venue in MLB for righty BABIP.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The weather report expects the 6th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Kazuma Okamoto pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. The New York Yankees infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Thu, May 21 • 9:38 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Athletics Athletics logo ATH (-104)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Aisha Quiñones image
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor

José Soriano has struggled mightily against the Athletics, going 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 33 strikeouts in eight career outings — numbers that should have the AL West-leading A’s feeling confident heading into Thursday’s finale. It also sets the stage for Shea Langeliers, who’s been on fire with a .328 average, hitting .326 against right-handers and already launching 12 home runs this season. Expect Soriano to run into trouble again, with Langeliers likely playing a major role.

Total Hits
Carlos Cortes logo
Carlos Cortes u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 23rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 6th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.. Carlos Cortes has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will be challenged by baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Cortes today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Carlos Cortes's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.7% down to 0%.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Thu, May 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman logo
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+131)
Projection 1.86
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for righty batting average.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Hunter Goodman will hold the platoon advantage over Eduardo Rodriguez in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar logo
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+159)
Projection 1.54
Best Odds
Pick made: 39 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ezequiel Tovar's BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ezequiel Tovar is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for righty batting average.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Ezequiel Tovar will have the handedness advantage against Eduardo Rodriguez today.
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