MLB Picks

I love this game for runs. We’ve got double-digit winds blowing out, two fly-ball starters, and a pair of beat-up bullpens. Hunter Goodman has the best home run upside in this matchup and has already taken Mitch Keller deep in a small three-at-bat sample. Goodman leads the Colorado Rockies in swing speed and BlastContact% over the last two weeks while also posting the second-best IdealAttackAngle%. I like him in this spot more than Mickey Moniak at the shorter price. Keller hasn’t allowed many home runs, but he’s been a bit fortunate and isn’t a true ground-ball pitcher. He’ll also eventually hand things off to a bullpen carrying a 6.82 ERA over the last two weeks. Goodman, a lucky pitcher, a bad bullpen, and strong winds are all checking boxes today.

 

Brady House might not be a household name yet, but he’s hitting in the middle of the Washington Nationals lineup from the right side and gets a strong matchup today against lefty Nick Lodolo, who was roughed up in his first start back last week while continuing to see his fly-ball rate climb. If Lodolo can’t keep the ball on the ground, it could be a short outing with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field. Returning from the blister that sidelined him, Lodolo surrendered two home runs while recording just 16 outs last week and threw only 78 pitches. That could mean plenty of innings for a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that owns the worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks at 8.77, along with a league-worst 2.10 HR/9. House went yard yesterday and has four extra-base hits over his last six games with great BlastCon% numbers. 

It’s hard to take the Over here after watching these lineups flail away in clutch moments last night, so I’m grabbing the Under, which has been a winning ticket in three of the last four meetings between these teams. Though I’m banking on the Phillies to get more traction at the plate tonight, the Red Sox scored just four runs across their past three outings, and only three ballclubs have served up fewer runs this year than Boston. For all of Painter’s bumpy spells, five of his seven starts have finished with a total below 9, and Gray looked sharp last week after shaking off a hamstring issue.

The Cubs will get back on track against Ritchie, who ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in chase rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, and xERA.

Imanaga will limit Atlanta’s offense, but that will change once he exits. Chicago’s bullpen ranks second-worst in HR/FB rate, third-worst in HR rate, and dead last in xERA over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.. The #8 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Christopher Morel has big-time HR ability (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Simeon Woods Richard has a pitch-to-contact profile (12th percentile K%) — great news for Morel.. When it comes to his home runs, Christopher Morel has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 19.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.4.

The Kansas City Royals lineup is loaded with right-handed bats in the middle of the order, especially the red-hot Bobby Witt Jr., but Noah Schultz isn’t your typical left-handed pitcher. The towering 6'10" lefty throws from a low three-quarter arm slot and features a sweeping slider that he can bury at the back foot of right-handed hitters. Because of that arm angle and the movement on the slider, right-handed batters often struggle to pull the ball for power against him. The only other major power threat in the lineup is Vinnie Pasquantino, who has historically struggled against left-handed pitching. On the other side, the Chicago White Sox can stack as many as seven left-handed hitters against Seth Lugo, which gives them a meaningful platoon advantage throughout the lineup. When you put all of that together, I think the White Sox should be trading closer to -125 favorites in this matchup.

Jacob Misiorowski continues to emerge as a reliable force in the Milwaukee Brewers’ rotation, carrying a 2.45 ERA while holding opponents to a .162 batting average. The rookie has thrown back-to-back scoreless outings and has stayed Under this line in three of his last four starts. Against an inconsistent San Diego Padres offense, Misiorowski is positioned to continue his dominant run at home.

Ezequiel Duran is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. This year, Ezequiel Duran has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Globe Life Field projects as the #30 ballpark in MLB for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Ezequiel Duran will be at a disadvantage today.. In today's matchup, Ezequiel Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.2% rate (83rd percentile).

Randy Arozarena is scorching hot at the plate, batting .522 over the last week and already collecting six hits in this series against Houston. The Seattle Mariners slugger also owns strong career numbers versus Lance McCullers Jr., going 7-for-17 with a homer. With McCullers struggling badly lately, Arozarena is in a prime spot to deliver another multi-base performance Wednesday.

As it relates to his home run skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.