MLB Picks

Curtis Mead is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #4 stadium in the majors for boosting base hits to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Curtis Mead will have an edge in today's game.. Curtis Mead has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

Shane Baz was fortunate to escape with only one run allowed over six frames when he faced the Rays last week. Tampa is tops in the majors in OPS over the last two weeks, and Baz is in the 15th percentile in pitching run value this year.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The #2 venue in the league for boosting BABIP to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.. Seiya Suzuki is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst on the slate).. With a .384 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Seiya Suzuki finds himself in the 97th percentile for offensive ability.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 5th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast forecasts the 4th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Mike Trout has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Keider Montero has a pitch-to-contact profile (24th percentile K%) — great news for Trout.

The Red Sox offense isn't cashing in its baserunners, and Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider will make that doubly difficult, as the right-hander is rounding back into form. Take the Braves up to -125.

Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects the 5th-best pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.. Spencer Steer will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Spencer Steer has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 14.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week.. Over the past 7 days, Spencer Steer's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 22.3%.

Cam Schlittler owns a 2.60 expected ERA, top 9% of MLB, and he forces hitters into mistakes with a 95th percentile chase rate. The path against him is discipline plus loud contact, but the Kansas City Royals don’t profile that way. They are average in barrel rate at 8.5% and chase rate at 30.2%. Against a starter with few obvious holes, average is not enough. Playable to -144.

Michael McGreevy's playing with fire, and his 2.40 ERA is a mirage. The Brewers might BABIP him to death, and with Kyle Harrison on the opposite mound, Milwaukee wins by at least a couple of runs.

Joe Ryan has been outstanding in May, working to a 1.47 ERA while allowing just 10 hits over 18.1 innings. Chicago counters with Sean Burke, who’s struggled to a 5.59 ERA this month, and the White Sox have lost six of his last eight starts. Minnesota also holds a major bullpen edge, and overall they’ve been the more consistent offense lately.

The Astros own a .290 wOBA, .652 OPS, and 35.1% hard hit rate over their last six games. 

Despite getting no-hit Monday, the Rangers have fared better in each category over the same period. They are sporting a .333 wOBA, .757 OPS, and 39.4% hard hit rate.

With a pitching advantage to boot, they should rebound Tuesday night.

I'm running it back with Julio Rodríguez in what projects as the best home run-hitting environment on the board today. This is a spot that graded out as +EV at a fair price of +340. This is easily the best HR park on the slate today, and Luis Severino has struggled, like most starters, in this minor-league park. His HR/FB rate ranks in the bottom 25 among MLB starters, and that number is even worse at home. J-Rod didn’t go deep yesterday, but he entered that game slugging .667 over his last seven days with two home runs. Luke Raley at +350 was a consideration as a left-handed alternative, but J-Rod at this price is the stronger look. He is going deep in this series. 

Schwarber enters today with the highest rating in this matchup, marking his 241st elite rating over the last three years. During that span, he has cleared this prop in 54.17% of those elite ratings. No different on the road, where he has gone over this number 52.83% of the time across 106 elite ratings. Despite the slight cold streak following the illness, Schwarber is still making 58.3% hard contact with a 25% barrel rate and just a 16.7% ground ball rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

The Diamondbacks have been tearing the cover off the ball, ranking second in OPS over the last two weeks, and they just hung six runs over five innings on Giants SP Tyler Mahle last week. San Fran is a modest 19th in OPS vs. lefties, and they'll take on Eduardo Rodriguez (2.24 ERA) on Tuesday night.

Both teams are trending to the Under as the Rockies are 13-17 O/U on the road and the Dodgers are 10-16 O/U at home. Kyle Freeland is better away from Coors (13.6 K-BB%), while the Dodgers can use Eric Lauer for a few innings against an impotent lineup against LHP before relying on a stingy bullpen (2.46 FIP this month).

Reds starter Brady Singer has allowed three dingers in two straight starts, and 2+ homers in four of his last five. Jordan Walker has gone yard in two straight games and has feasted on right-handed pitching, batting .311 with 11 of his 15 home runs vs. righties.

Rasmussen has been a New York Yankees nightmare, posting a 1.03 ERA across eight career outings against the Bronx Bombers. This type of stat is meaningless without context, and we have it here. He's been able to do this because the Yankees are constantly reliant on their power, and Rasmussen is one of the best barrel suppression arms in baseball, sitting in the 96th percentile in such rates this season. Playbale to +100.