MLB Picks

Even with the weather forecast calling for miserable conditions, the Cubs and Red Sox have enough lineup depth to put runs on the board in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. While there isn't confirmation for who will follow Boston opener Alec Gamboa, I’m expecting it to be Jake Bennett, and he’s allowed 12 runs across his past three starts with a 4.91 xERA. Finally, Chicago righty Clay Holmes (3.84 xERA since joining the Cubs) will give way to a Chicago bullpen sporting a 24th-ranked xERA and 27th-ranked xFIP in September.

Peralta enters this matchup in excellent form, allowing fewer than two earned runs in four consecutive starts while posting a 2.28 xERA over the last month. Philadelphia's offense has also gone ice cold, producing just a 69 wRC+ over the last week. Peralta is in a strong spot to keep the Phillies quiet.

Jo Adell hits for a ton of power against southpaws. He is sporting a .265 ISO and 11.8% barrel rate vs. lefties, and those numbers rise even further when isolating Noah Cameron’s pitch mix.

Adell’s ISO sits at .285 facing fastballs, changeups, and cutters, which are the three pitches Cameron throws at least 20% of the time against RHH.

His bat speed vs. that combination is also tops on the Guardians.

Sean Burke gives Chicago a significant edge on the mound after posting a 0.82 ERA and 3.10 FIP across his last two appearances. Colorado counters with Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns a 5.10 FIP over his previous five starts and has continued to surrender plenty of hard contact. The White Sox are the stronger side.

Neither starter enters in dominant form, but Robert Gasser has been much better at keeping opposing hitters from doing serious damage. He's held opponents below a 30% hard-hit rate over his last two starts and has surrendered just 0.91 HR/9 at home this season. That gives Milwaukee the edge over Michael McGreevy and St. Louis.

The Rangers have gone Over in five of their last six games, and this pitching matchup could make it six of seven. Jacob deGrom has been getting lit up on the road all season where he has a 5.35 ERA. Joe Ryan has been awful since the All-Star break, allowing 11 homers with a 7.62 ERA in six appearances. With both bullpens also struggling, seven runs looks too low.
 
 

The fair price on Jacob Lopez's Under 4.5 strikeouts today at home is -140. He's fading hard heading into his final start. He just gave up 10 runs over an eight-out performance most recently, and over his last three games, he's gone just 12.1 innings with five Ks and 19 earned runs. He threw only 63 pitches in his last start, and his 117 innings this season are already 25 more than his career high. He also has to deal with the Astros in Sacramento, which is the best Over park in baseball for a reason. The hitting conditions at Sutter Health Park aren't doing Lopez any favors either, with winds blowing out and decent temperatures for hitting.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are trading at 46% on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to 50% against the San Diego Padres. You can't have your back against the wall much more than the Diamondbacks do this weekend, as they basically need a sweep to have any hope of making the postseason. That should lead to their roster being managed like they're playing an elimination game, but I also really like the matchup for Brandon Pfaadt. The heart of the Padres' lineup is loaded with right-handed bats, and that's not a problem for Pfaadt, who has held right-handed hitters to a .599 OPS this season. His hard, sweeping slider runs away from the barrels of right-handed hitters, giving him a pitch that can neutralize the strength of San Diego's lineup. That's why the Diamondbacks have my attention at this price.

Detmers has been generating plenty of swings and misses lately, posting 9.60 K/9 over his last five appearances and clearing this number in three of his previous four. He also punched out eight Mariners just 10 days ago, and Seattle has averaged 8.71 strikeouts per game at home this season. Another strong strikeout performance is well within reach.

Betts is seeing the ball exceptionally well, batting .458 over the last week with seven of his 11 hits going for extra bases. He's topped 1.5 total bases in five of his last seven games and now draws struggling rookie Yunior Marte along with a Giants bullpen carrying a 6.78 FIP over its last 22 innings. Betts should have plenty of opportunities to stay hot.