MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 25, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Kansas City Royals logo KC @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sat, Jul 25 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Carter Jensen logo
Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carter Jensen in the 82nd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Carter Jensen is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Carter Jensen will hold the platoon advantage over Casey Mize today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 20.3°, Carter Jensen has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 26.7° angle over the last 14 days.
Total Bases
Riley Greene logo
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.91
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Riley Greene is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Michael Wacha throws from, Riley Greene will have the upper hand today.. Among every team on the slate today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Sat, Jul 25 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Mike Trout logo
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 46 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 6th-best batter in MLB.. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.6-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.. Mike Trout will hold the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray in today's game.. Using Statcast data, Mike Trout ranks in the 88th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .358.
Total Bases
Bryce Eldridge logo
Bryce Eldridge o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Bryce Eldridge ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Eldridge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.6-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.. Given Ryan Johnson's large platoon split, Bryce Eldridge will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sat, Jul 25 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Dylan Crews logo
Dylan Crews u0.5 Total Hits (+184)
Projection 0.87
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst field in the game for RHB batting average.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. Among all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Dylan Crews's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, falling from 37.2% on the season to 16.7% in the last 14 days.. Dylan Crews has recorded a .282 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 14th percentile.
Total Bases
CJ Abrams logo
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. CJ Abrams will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Sat, Jul 25 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. logo
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 park in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.7% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.
Total Bases
Kazuma Okamoto logo
Kazuma Okamoto u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kazuma Okamoto is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.. Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest average fence height in the majors.. Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.6-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hurlers.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Sat, Jul 25 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Esteury Ruiz logo
Esteury Ruiz u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Esteury Ruiz is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the worst park in the game for right-handed home runs.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Esteury Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences today.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill logo
Jackson Merrill u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.87
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
LoanDepot Park grades out as the #30 stadium in the majors for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Jackson Merrill is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.5% rate (84th percentile).. Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sat, Jul 25 • 6:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.14
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Junior Caminero projects as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (53.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage today.
Total Home Runs
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+325)
Projection 0.3
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Junior Caminero projects as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (53.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage today.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sat, Jul 25 • 6:40 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Chicago Cubs logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo o7.5 (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Paul Skenes has a lofty 5.27 ERA over his last five starts, with the Pirates cashing the Over in each of those games.

Both bullpens are also shaky, with Pittsburgh’s pen owning the 10th-highest ERA in MLB (4.40), slightly worse than Chicago's (4.04).

Moneyline
Chicago Cubs logo CHC (+114)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Paul Skenes’ ERA is up to 3.43 compared to his 2.35 career average, while Cubs starter Shota Imanaga is trending up with a stingy 1.62 ERA over his last three outings. 

Imanaga will dominate a Pirates lineup that’s missing three everyday players and ranks 19th in runs scored as well as 20th in SLG since the All-Star break.

View 12 Picks
Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Matt Olson logo
Matt Olson o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.13
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #6 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. The shallowest right field fences among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Matt Olson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Young in today's game.
Total Bases
Christian Encarnacion-Strand logo
Christian Encarnacion-Strand o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.66
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #6 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. In the last week's worth of games, Christian Encarnacion-Strand has averaged an impressive 102.8-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced measure of home run potential.. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs recently, lifting balls between 23° and 34° 33.3% of the time over the last 7 days.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena logo
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average skill, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Jeremy Pena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas logo
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.96
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Miguel Vargas pulls many of his flyballs (43.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Christian Yelich logo
Christian Yelich o1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Christian Yelich is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Cole Carrigg logo
Cole Carrigg o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cole Carrigg is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Cole Carrigg's 30% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.6%.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Royce Lewis logo
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 95°.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics.. Royce Lewis is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#2-worst on the slate).. Royce Lewis will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases
Byron Buxton logo
Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Projection 2.43
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Byron Buxton projects as the 8th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 95°.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics.. Byron Buxton will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Brandon Nimmo logo
Brandon Nimmo o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. In MLB, Globe Life Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Brandon Nimmo will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.
Total Hits
Wyatt Langford logo
Wyatt Langford u0.5 Total Hits (+175)
Projection 0.91
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #1 ballpark in MLB for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -11° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Bryan Woo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Wyatt Langford in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Woo's large platoon split.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ New York Mets logo NYM Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.1
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best hitter in the majors.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. Shohei Ohtani will hold the platoon advantage over Nolan McLean in today's game.. Shohei Ohtani has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 17% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last 14 days.
Total Bases
Freddie Freeman logo
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Batting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Freddie Freeman will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Freddie Freeman has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Freddie Freeman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 46.6% on the season to 62.5% in the last week.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jordan Walker logo
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°.. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (44.2% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt logo
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+143)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°.. JJ Wetherholt will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Greene in today's game.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: one month ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

View 15 Picks
Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

View 12 Picks
San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 1 Computer Pick
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.

What kinds of MLB picks do we make?

Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.