MLB Picks

Let’s stay on the getaway angle today with an afternoon game on a small slate, as both teams head into new series on Friday. The Angels travel to Tampa after today’s game, while the Tigers hit the road to face the White Sox. This total feels inflated at first glance because of the pitching matchup, but Jack Flaherty has at least started to rein in the wild walk rate, and both his BABIP and LOB% help explain why the expected metrics are pointing toward better results ahead. Grayson Rodriguez is still working his way back after missing all of last season and now draws a Tigers offense that ranks dead last in the American League in OPS over the last 30 days. These are also the No. 28 and No. 29 offenses in wOBA over that same stretch. The fair price for this Under at the 9 is -125.

Davis Martin has quietly become one of the most electric arms in the White Sox rotation, and tonight’s matchup sets up beautifully for another strong outing. The right-hander is averaging 6.6 strikeouts per start this season and an even stronger 7.25 at home. Over his last five starts, Martin owns an elite 32.5% strikeout rate with impressive swing-and-miss metrics across the board. He now faces a Twins lineup that has struggled with strikeouts on the road, carrying the fifth-highest road strikeout rate in baseball. With several Minnesota hitters trending poorly in that department, Martin is in a prime spot to clear this number.

Sale has won both of his starts vs the Red Sox since joining the Braves, allowing just one run over 13 innings and striking out 18.

As mentioned previously, Bassitt is throwing the sinker at a 48% rate to right-handed hitters, which plays into the strengths of Okamoto. The Jays slugger owns a .444 average against the sinker  with a .506 slug, and a 62% hard-hit rate. 

There isn’t a massive list of +EV home run props today, but Oneil Cruz is firmly on it with a fair price around +400. He’ll face Chicago starter Colin Rea, who has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last three starts and ranks as one of the weaker starters on today’s board in both HR/FB rate and BlastContact%. That matchup lines up well for Cruz, who is one of just three hitters in baseball over the last seven days with a swing speed north of 79 mph. His BlastContact% remains among the best in baseball, and he never cheats his swing. Cruz will hit atop the order against the right-hander, and his one home run across his last 63 plate appearances makes this a good buy-low spot, especially with that rate sitting well below his career mark of 25.3 HR/PA. The 11-mph winds blowing out to right field only add to the appeal for the left-handed slugger.

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.