MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 25, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Kansas City Royals logo KC @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sat, Jul 25 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Salvador Perez logo
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Over the last week, Salvador Perez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10% up to 23.1%.. In the last 14 days, Salvador Perez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 102.3-mph lately.
Total RBIs
Vinnie Pasquantino logo
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Vinnie Pasquantino will hold the platoon advantage over Casey Mize in today's game.. Vinnie Pasquantino has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 92.6-mph over the past two weeks.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Sat, Jul 25 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Mike Trout logo
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 6th-best batter in MLB.. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.6-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.. Mike Trout will hold the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray in today's game.. Using Statcast data, Mike Trout ranks in the 88th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .358.
Total Bases
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.9
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.6-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Johnson today... and even more favorably, Johnson has a large platoon split.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sat, Jul 25 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Andres Chaparro logo
Andres Chaparro u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Chaparro in the 19th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. This year, Andres Chaparro has been pinch hit for in 70% of his appearances when starting against lefty hurler.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst field in the game for RHB batting average.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. Among all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Total RBIs
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Washington Nationals infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team playing today.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Sat, Jul 25 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. logo
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 park in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.7% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.
Total Bases
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest average fence height in the majors.. Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.6-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hurlers.. Hitting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Willson Contreras meets a tough challenge today.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Sat, Jul 25 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Heriberto Hernandez logo
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 37 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Given JP Sears's large platoon split, Heriberto Hernandez will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Heriberto Hernandez will hold that advantage today.. Heriberto Hernandez has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13.3% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
Total Bases
Manny Machado logo
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. LoanDepot Park has the 6th-shallowest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. In the last week, Manny Machado's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.3% up to 22.2%.. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 16.7% on the season to 38.9% over the last week.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sat, Jul 25 • 6:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Chase DeLauter logo
Chase DeLauter o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.74
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase DeLauter in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Chase DeLauter is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Tropicana Field profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase DeLauter will have the handedness advantage against Nick Martinez today.. Chase DeLauter has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Victor Mesa Jr. logo
Victor Mesa Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.47
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Victor Mesa Jr. is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Tropicana Field profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums.. Victor Mesa Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Bibee in today's matchup.. Victor Mesa Jr. will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sat, Jul 25 • 6:40 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Chicago Cubs logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo o7.5 (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Paul Skenes has a lofty 5.27 ERA over his last five starts, with the Pirates cashing the Over in each of those games.

Both bullpens are also shaky, with Pittsburgh’s pen owning the 10th-highest ERA in MLB (4.40), slightly worse than Chicago's (4.04).

Moneyline
Chicago Cubs logo CHC (+114)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Paul Skenes’ ERA is up to 3.43 compared to his 2.35 career average, while Cubs starter Shota Imanaga is trending up with a stingy 1.62 ERA over his last three outings. 

Imanaga will dominate a Pirates lineup that’s missing three everyday players and ranks 19th in runs scored as well as 20th in SLG since the All-Star break.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Austin Riley logo
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The #6 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 4th-shallowest CF dimensions among all stadiums.. Austin Riley has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 11.3% seasonal rate to 31.3% in the last week.. Austin Riley has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.7-mph EV.
Total Bases
Drake Baldwin logo
Drake Baldwin o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.15
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Drake Baldwin ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #6 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Drake Baldwin will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Young today.. Drake Baldwin has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last year's 94.2-mph mark.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas logo
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.96
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Miguel Vargas pulls many of his flyballs (43.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena logo
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average skill, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Jeremy Pena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Christian Yelich logo
Christian Yelich o1.5 Total Bases (+142)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 37 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Christian Yelich is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak logo
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Milwaukee Brewers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Byron Buxton logo
Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Projection 2.43
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Byron Buxton projects as the 8th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 95°.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics.. Byron Buxton will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Ryan Jeffers logo
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 95°.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage today.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ezequiel Duran logo
Ezequiel Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.32
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Ezequiel Duran has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. In MLB, Globe Life Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Ezequiel Duran will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Jake Burger logo
Jake Burger u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jake Burger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Globe Life Field as the worst park in the league for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. The 6th-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -11° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Jake Burger will be at a big disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ New York Mets logo NYM Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Freddie Freeman logo
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+134)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Batting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Freddie Freeman will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Freddie Freeman has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Freddie Freeman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 46.6% on the season to 62.5% in the last week.
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker logo
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Tucker in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an advantage in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Tucker tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.. Kyle Tucker has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.9% seasonal rate to 11.5% over the past 14 days.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz logo
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+129)
Projection 1.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will get to bat from his strong side against Andre Pallante today.
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar logo
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.48
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°.. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today's game.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: one month ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 1 Computer Pick
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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